4098 St Patricks Ave · Redding, CA 96003

$97,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 367 Days on market

Built 1950 0.25 ac lot $113/sqft · 67% below area ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice city lot situated in N Redding close to schools, shopping, services and restaurants. All utilities are at the property. It has a 2 bedroom 1 bath home that is considered a total fixer/teardown. It is fenced front and back, with alley access. Several outbuildings with decent size front and back yards. This lot would be perfect for a rebuild

Key facts

• Alley access
• Front and back yards
• Outbuildings

Tags

• FENCED FRONT AND BACK
• ALLEY ACCESS
• OUTBUILDINGS
• FRONT AND BACK YARDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 367 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 367 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.30%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,560
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: -66.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1280 Bradley Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	912 (+6%)	12mo	$283,000	$310	45
1143 Beltline Rd	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+12%)	9mo	$249,900	$260	41
4130 Bradley Dr	0.58mi	2/2.0	912 (+6%)	22mo	$275,000	$302	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $23,681
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $84,799
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $334/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $730

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
636 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$1,295	$1.31	13d	8	0.10mi
4296 Clay St Unit 17 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,395	$1.55	21d	1	0.27mi
3717 Saint Nicholas Ave Unit 5 Redding, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	44d	1	0.35mi
4490 Alder St Unit C Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	21d	1	0.42mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.48mi
400 Lake Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,310	$1.46	13d	1	0.48mi
335 Buckeye Ter Unit 2 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,399	$1.75	21d	1	0.54mi
4288 Bradley Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	21d	1	0.58mi
130 Masonic Ave Apt 9 Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	44d	1	0.77mi
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	44d	1	0.77mi
150 Masonic Ave Unit 1 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.78mi
170 Masonic Ave #4 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	924	$1,400	$1.52	13d	1	0.78mi
701 Redwood Blvd Redding, CA	2.0	1.5–2.5	1163	$1,820	$1.56	13d	1	0.83mi
1477 Mishka Ct Apt 3 Redding, CA	2.0	1.5	800	$1,225	$1.53	21d	1	0.97mi
5391 Stonethrow Ct Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,895	$1.72	44d	1	1.15mi
251 Hilltop Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,475	$1.95	13d	1	1.26mi
333 Boulder Creek Dr Redding, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,000	$1.28	13d	1	1.33mi
5576 Mountain View Dr Redding, CA	2.0	1.0	776	$1,200	$1.55	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $97,000 Active 367 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 364 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 363 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 361 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $97,000 Active 360 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $97,000 Active 358 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 357 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $97,000 Active 356 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 355 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 351 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 350 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 349 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 348 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 347 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    price $97,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Nice city lot situated in N Redding close to schools, shopping, services and restaurants. All utilities are at the property. It has a 2 bedroom 1 bath home that is considered a total fixer/teardown. It is fenced front and back, with alley access. Several outbuildings with decent size front and back yards. This lot would be perfect for a rebuild

18. 2025-12-13
    price $98,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Nice city lot situated in N Redding close to schools, shopping, services and restaurants. All utilities are at the property. It has a 2 bedroom 1 bath home that is considered a total fixer/teardown. It is fenced front and back, with alley access. Several outbuildings with decent size front and back yards. This lot would be perfect for a rebuild

19. 2025-08-01
    price $100,000 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Nice city lot situated in N Redding close to schools, shopping, services and restaurants. All utilities are at the property. It has a 2 bedroom 1 bath home that is considered a total fixer/teardown. It is fenced front and back, with alley access. Several outbuildings with decent size front and back yards. This lot would be perfect for a rebuild

20. 2025-06-17
    listed $105,000 Active 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Nice city lot situated in N Redding close to schools, shopping, services and restaurants. All utilities are at the property. It has a 2 bedroom 1 bath home that is considered a total fixer/teardown. It is fenced front and back, with alley access. Several outbuildings with decent size front and back yards. This lot would be perfect for a rebuild

21. 2025-02-10
    price $105,000
22. 2025-02-10
    price $100,000
23. 2024-08-28
    price $110,000
24. 2024-08-19
    price $115,900
25. 2024-06-12
    listed $119,900 Active
26. 2024-01-24
    status Pending
27. 2023-11-01
    price $114,900
28. 2023-09-15
    listed $119,900 Active
29. 2023-08-30
    status Active
30. 2023-08-09
    historical
31. 2023-05-03
    price $130,000
32. 2023-03-02
    listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $334 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$404/yr (+$34/mo · 120.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$334
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $5,305
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $5,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-30.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $97,000 SAOR
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $98,000 SAOR
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $100,000 SAOR
• 2025-06-17 Listed $105,000 SAOR
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $105,000 SAOR
• 2025-02-10 Price Changed $100,000 SAOR
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $110,000 SAOR
• 2024-08-19 Price Changed $115,900 SAOR
• 2024-06-12 Listed $119,900 SAOR
• 2024-01-24 Pending — SAOR
• 2023-11-01 Price Changed $114,900 SAOR
• 2023-09-15 Listed $119,900 SAOR
• 2023-08-30 Relisted — SAOR
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — SAOR
• 2023-05-03 Price Changed $130,000 SAOR
• 2023-03-02 Listed $140,000 SAOR

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $334 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.