6387 Oak Knoll Rd · Conroe, TX 77316

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1968 7,501 sqft lot Est $179k · 30% under $24/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home nestled on a spacious 7,500 sq ft lot. This cozy abode offers endless possibilities, making it an ideal choice for first-time homebuyers or savvy investors. Outside, the expansive lot offers a blank canvas. Whether you dream of creating a lush garden oasis, adding an outdoor entertaining area, or expanding the living space, this property has the potential to become your personal paradise. Situated in a friendly wooded neighborhood with easy access to schools, parks, and shopping. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to own a piece of real estate with so much potential. Make this cozy 2-bedroom house your home or your next investment today!

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• 7,501 sq ft lot
• Community pool

Tags

• NEWLY ADDED FULL BATH
• SPACIOUS YARD
• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• TRANQUILITY OF COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community pool available
• HOA & community: Lake Bonanza POA with annual fee; Association amenities include playground and pool; Association fee covers recreation facilities

Exterior

• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Built in 1968
• Construction: Cement siding; Wood siding
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Storage; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit heating; Window unit cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Lake Creek H S (math 53% / reading 68%, grade C+, #268 of 1,632 statewide, top 17%, 1,649 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.33%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $179,280
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6387 Oak Knoll Rd	0.00mi	2/1.5	720 (0%)	22mo	$92,990	$129	80
5723 Pinehurst Dr	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	742 (+3%)	17mo	$185,000	$249	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-6,510
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,666
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,341/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$297
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,068

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 679-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,341 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,288 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$947/yr (+$79/mo · 70.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,341
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,356
• − Management: −$1,356
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $1,342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$322
• After-tax cash flow: $2,945/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+34.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-15 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-09-04 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-08-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-07-25 Listed $92,990 HARMLS
• 1999-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,341 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.