3052 E Fisher Rd · Bay City, MI 48706

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,497 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1947 1.00 ac lot Est $208k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Monitor Township 3 bedroom ranch home with attached garage and 1 acre lot. Features include ceramic tile breeze-way, central air, eat-in kitchen, large living room, hardwood floors plus so much more! Set your showing today and see all the potential this home has. Price reflex updates and any repairs needed.

Key facts

• Large living room
• Eat-in kitchen
• Central air

Tags

• CERAMIC TILE BREEZE-WAY
• CENTRAL AIR
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($929/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 248 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $118,679 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.37%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,083
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3052 E Fisher Rd	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,400 (-6%)	1mo	$138,500	$99	79
3189 Arnold Ct	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,434 (-4%)	12mo	$200,000	$139	73
3193 Haberland Dr	0.18mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,682 (+12%)	1mo	$171,000	$102	63
3196 Haberland Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,374 (-8%)	12mo	$215,000	$156	60
2948 E FISHER Rd	0.22mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,668 (+11%)	6mo	$299,900	$180	59
5136 Baxman Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,487 (-1%)	8mo	$200,000	$134	51
4736 Moeller Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,630 (+9%)	1mo	$264,900	$163	50
316 S Woodbridge Ave	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,418 (-5%)	2mo	$65,000	$46	47
5115 Baxman Dr	0.59mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,658 (+11%)	3mo	$305,000	$184	45
3220 E Midland Rd	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,683 (+12%)	9mo	$400,000	$238	39
5086 Reinhardt Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,340 (-10%)	13mo	$157,500	$118	38
5149 Reinhardt Ln	0.68mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,672 (+12%)	10mo	$199,000	$119	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-17,785
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,329
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,187 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,089

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $117	+0% $77	+5% $38	+10% $-2
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $31	+0% $77	+5% $124	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $113	base $77	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-10
   listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,486 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$668/yr (+$56/mo · 81.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,139
• − Management: −$1,139
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,461
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$351
• After-tax cash flow: $1,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $139,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · -60.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.