28919 Bison Haven Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

$218,991

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,538 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 2-car garage $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Newlin Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $218,991 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $286,790.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-256 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $216k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 4.0% in Hockley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller J H (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 899 students, 69% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2407 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,706 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,790
• List price: $218,991
• Delta: -22.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28842 Golden Wheat Ct	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,538 (0%)	2mo	$244,190	$159	96
27310 Meadowlark Cove Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+4%)	2mo	$278,990	$174	73
28927 Bison Haven Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+13%)	0mo	$252,990	$146	72
28838 Golden Wheat Ct	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (+13%)	2mo	$253,672	$146	69
16218 Chestnut Haven Ln	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+6%)	2mo	$266,990	$164	69
16210 Domestic Dove Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-14%)	2mo	$246,990	$187	68
16830 Spotted Oak Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-4%)	2mo	$238,990	$162	63
16718 Sparrow Colony Ln	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+12%)	1mo	$278,990	$162	62
16818 Spotted Oak Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-6%)	1mo	$235,990	$163	62
28910 Bison Haven Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,318 (-14%)	2mo	$209,991	$159	56
16822 Spotted Oak Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,644 (+7%)	2mo	$251,990	$153	54
16802 Spotted Oak Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-14%)	1mo	$223,990	$169	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-69,462
• Equity at exit: $42,761

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-107,276
• Equity at exit: $24,796

Cash invested: $80,301 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 79 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $267,000 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 58 d
• This list price: 3% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 2407
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,311 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,504
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$358 /mo · $4,302/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-256

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,635

Max offer price $249,727

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-58	-5% $-157	+0% $-256	+5% $-355	+10% $-454
Rent	-10% $-439	-5% $-347	+0% $-256	+5% $-165	+10% $-74
Rate	-1.0pp $-112	-0.5pp $-183	base $-256	+0.5pp $-330	+1.0pp $-406

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,698
• Closing costs: $8,604
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	10d	1	0.25mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	139d	1	0.65mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,800	$1.22	7d	1	0.70mi
16850 Spotted Oak Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	11d	1	0.70mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by CCMCPlayground, park, pool, and trails availableAnnual association fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story entry (all main living on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision settingPond on lotAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 14)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11)Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboPantrySeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $218,991 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $218,991 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $218,991 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $218,991 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $218,991 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $218,991 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   pricedays on market $218,991 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   pricestatusdays on market $221,991 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-07-01
   status $243,990 Pending 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-30
    days on market $243,990 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-29
    days on market $243,990 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-28
    days on market $243,990 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-27
    days on market $243,990 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-26
    days on market $243,990 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-24
    days on market $243,990 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-06-21
    days on market $243,990 Active 5 DOM
17. 2026-06-18
    days on market $243,990 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-06-17
    remarks 618-char remark
19. 2026-06-17
    pricedays on marketlisting id $243,990 Active 1 DOM
20. 2026-06-16
    days on market $242,990 Active 3 DOM
21. 2026-06-15
    days on market $242,990 Active 2 DOM
22. 2026-06-13
    remarks 399-char remark
23. 2026-06-13
    listed $242,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,065
• − Property taxes: −$4,302
• − Insurance: −$1,434
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,219
• − Management: −$2,219
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$8,343
• Taxable loss: −$8,047
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,931
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,142/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern design. It is move-in ready and has the potential for minor updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary I T Holleman El F TX #2,268/4,322 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Waller J H F TX #1,279/1,662 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 25,231
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

---

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by CCMCPlayground, park, pool, and trails availableAnnual association fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story entry (all main living on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026Brick and cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision settingPond on lotAssociation pool

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric ovenElectric rangeGas ovenGas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (13 x 14)Bedroom on first floor (10 x 11)Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10)
• Flooring: CarpetVinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas)Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboPantrySeparate showerTub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupGas dryer hookup

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-16 Listed $243,990 HARMLS