459 Pikeville Ave · Graysville, TN 37338

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1940 0.56 ac lot $58/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

The House is a Fixer Upper.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 26 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $494 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#298 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rhea County (rural): math 35% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #38 of 139 in TN (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Graysville Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #546 of 952 statewide, top 61%, 229 students, 0% FRL); Rhea Middle School (math 39% / reading 26%, grade F, #81 of 333 statewide, top 26%, 556 students, 0% FRL); Rhea County High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #86 of 332 statewide, top 27%, 1,500 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 60% district-wide (60 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 198 units permitted in Rhea County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $70k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,851 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.30%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $206,695
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -66.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
483 Pikeville Ave	0.02mi	2/1.0	1,128 (-6%)	2mo	$52,250	$46	88
4314 Dayton Ave	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,120 (-7%)	5mo	$103,000	$92	67
4696 Cranmore Cove Rd	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,242 (+4%)	6mo	$235,000	$189	58
150 Harmon Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,100 (-8%)	4mo	$240,000	$218	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.55×
• Total profit: $69,547
• Equity at exit: $62,971

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.20×
• Total profit: $180,051
• Equity at exit: $135,800

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37338

• Home prices YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $697/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $494

Break-even live

Break-even rent $574

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $514	+0% $494	+5% $474	+10% $455
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $447	+0% $494	+5% $542	+10% $589
Rate	-1.0pp $529	-0.5pp $512	base $494	+0.5pp $476	+1.0pp $458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 6th St Graysville, TN	2.0	1.0	1092	$1,200	$1.10	16d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 27-char remark

   Show marketing remark (27 chars)

   The House is a Fixer Upper.

2. 2026-04-10
   listed $69,900 Active 27-char remark

   Show marketing remark (27 chars)

   The House is a Fixer Upper.

3. 2026-04-09
   listed $69,900 Active 27-char remark

   Show marketing remark (27 chars)

   The House is a Fixer Upper.

4. 2026-01-20
   listed
5. 2025-01-09
   soldstatus $45,100
6. 2025-01-06
   soldstatus $45,100
7. 2025-01-06
   soldstatus $45,100 Closed
8. 2025-01-06
   soldstatus $45,100 Closed
9. 2024-12-19
   status Pending
10. 2024-12-19
    status Pending
11. 2024-12-02
    listed Active
12. 2024-12-02
    listed Active
13. 2024-10-04
    status Pending
14. 2024-10-04
    historical
15. 2024-09-27
    price $75,900
16. 2024-09-27
    status Active
17. 2024-09-04
    status Pending
18. 2024-09-03
    price $89,000
19. 2024-08-28
    listed $99,900 Active
20. 2017-09-01
    soldstatus $50,000
21. 2017-09-01
    soldstatus $50,000
22. 2017-09-01
    soldstatus $50,000
23. 2017-07-06
    listed $58,500
24. 2017-07-06
    listed $58,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $697 · $58/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$697
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,101
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $4,707/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rhea County
• NCES district ID: 4703510
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,059
• Composite: 27.67/100
• National rank: #6917
• State rank: #38 of 139 in TN

Livability — Graysville

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #298
• US rank: #20631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Graysville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 2,991

Population outlook (Rhea County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,187 people
• By 2030: 33,482 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 33,786 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 33,730 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 33,603 · +1.3%
• By 2100: 33,312 · +0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rhea

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.0% · R 82.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+63.7 2016: R+61.3 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.62%
• Current HPI: 365.0013
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+19.5% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — GCAR
• 2026-04-10 Listed $69,900 RCAOR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $69,900 GCAR
• 2026-01-20 Listed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $45,100 Public Records
• 2025-01-06 Sold (MLS) $45,100 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-01-06 Sold (MLS) $45,100 UCMLS
• 2025-01-06 Sold (MLS) $45,100 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-19 Pending — UCMLS
• 2024-12-19 Pending — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-12-02 Listed — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-12-02 Listed — UCMLS
• 2024-10-04 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-04 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-27 Price Changed $75,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-27 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-04 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-03 Price Changed $89,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Listed $99,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-01 Sold (MLS) $50,000 GCAR
• 2017-09-01 Sold (MLS) $50,000 RCAOR
• 2017-07-06 Listed $58,500 GCAR
• 2017-07-06 Listed $58,500 RCAOR

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $697 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.