8525 Hearth Dr #21 · Houston, TX 77054

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Condo public records · 178 Days on market

Built 1979 $579/mo HOA · 29% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This move-in ready gem comes fully furnished! All furniture, washer/dryer fridge shown in the photos is included (anything that a buyer wants to be removed can be). This condo is neat and clean and ready for you! It has a fantastic location, convenient to major freeways, NRG, the medical center and Downtown Houston. HOA includes two pools, tennis courts, clubhouse, water and sewer, trash, gate, exterior building, grounds, and more! This layout of this condo is nice and spacious, with access to the balcony from the primary bedroom. Both secondary bedrooms are quite large and well appointed. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Tennis courts
• Fantastic location

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• FANTASTIC LOCATION
• TWO POOLS
• TENNIS COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE
• ACCESS TO BALCONY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($74/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 178 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 178 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.39%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-26,094
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-43,072
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77054

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,321/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$579
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,993

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8415 Hearth Dr Unit 1019639P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$5,258	$3.51	5d	1	0.01mi
8415 Hearth Dr #25 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,950	$2.63	43d	1	0.01mi
8521 Hearth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,195	$1.09	43d	1	0.03mi
2801 S Bartell Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,808	$1.40	11d	1	0.08mi
8900 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,920	$1.96	1d	27	0.31mi
8900 Lakes at 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	981	$1,810	$1.84	43d	35	0.31mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,808	$1.87	2d	3	0.31mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$1,808	$1.80	7d	3	0.31mi
8877 Lakes At 610 Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	964	$1,808	$1.87	11d	2	0.31mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC2 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,595	$1.42	43d	1	0.32mi
8877 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit RAMC3 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1289	$1,808	$1.40	43d	1	0.32mi
2989 Westridge St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,639	$1.48	11d	1	0.36mi
9330 Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$2,460	$2.69	1d	51	0.43mi
9955 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	874	$1,949	$2.23	1d	18	0.45mi
9330 S Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,415	$2.56	14d	53	0.45mi
9426 S Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1264	$2,040	$1.61	43d	1	0.46mi
3000 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,299	$1.50	2d	34	0.52mi
3006 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,253	$1.19	21d	1	0.60mi
3006 Murworth Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,253	$1.19	43d	1	0.60mi
9016 Bayview Cove Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2245	$4,200	$1.87	18d	1	0.63mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10224 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,738	$1.57	10d	1	0.66mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,714	$1.54	7d	1	0.66mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,714	$1.54	5d	1	0.66mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10234 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,074	$1.36	10d	1	0.66mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,951	$1.69	2d	1	0.69mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 9144 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,660	$1.43	43d	1	0.69mi
9111 Lakes at 610 Dr Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1157	$1,983	$1.71	10d	1	0.69mi
9150 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,702	$1.47	11d	1	0.69mi
8706 S Main St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1161	$1,725	$1.49	43d	1	0.70mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3047 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,917	$1.26	18d	1	0.72mi
8700 Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,859	$1.95	1d	4	0.72mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3174 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,961	$1.38	10d	1	0.76mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3112 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,929	$1.36	2d	1	0.76mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Unit 10334 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,975	$1.39	43d	1	0.76mi
10191 S Main St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,110	$2.20	1d	142	0.76mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,706	$1.54	2d	1	0.76mi
10201 Buffalo Speedway Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,042	$1.34	2d	1	0.76mi
8314 Greenbush St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1952	$9,500	$4.87	43d	1	0.84mi
8314 Greenbush St Unit 1019557P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1948	$16,712	$8.58	24d	1	0.84mi
10301 Buffalo Speedway Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$2,103	$2.05	2d	18	0.85mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $579 · $6,948/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashlandscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Active 178 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $130,000 Active 177 DOM
3. 2025-12-05
   listed $130,000 Active 625-char remark

   Show marketing remark (625 chars)

   This move-in ready gem comes fully furnished! All furniture, washer/dryer fridge shown in the photos is included (anything that a buyer wants to be removed can be). This condo is neat and clean and ready for you! It has a fantastic location, convenient to major freeways, NRG, the medical center and Downtown Houston. HOA includes two pools, tennis courts, clubhouse, water and sewer, trash, gate, exterior building, grounds, and more! This layout of this condo is nice and spacious, with access to the balcony from the primary bedroom. Both secondary bedrooms are quite large and well appointed. Schedule your showing today!

4. 2025-03-19
   historical
5. 2024-10-16
   price $155,000
6. 2024-09-19
   listed $160,000 Active
7. 2021-11-03
   soldstatus
8. 2021-08-19
   soldstatus
9. 2021-08-16
   soldstatus Sold
10. 2021-08-03
    status Pending
11. 2021-07-29
    listed $110,000 Active
12. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,321 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$58/yr (+$5/mo · 2.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,321
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,921
• − Management: −$1,921
• − HOA: −$6,948
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$1,609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$386
• After-tax cash flow: $460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,272
• Household income: $62,106
• Rent vs Own: 88.2% rent · 11.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2814.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 41% Asian 22% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 9% Chinese 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.51%
• Current HPI: 170.4017
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.82%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-08-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-07-29 Listed $110,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,321 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.