22442 Kennons Way · Houston, TX 77447

$222,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,196 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 5,514 sqft lot $186/sqft · 12% below area Est $253k · 12% under $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this gently lived in single-story home in the Bauer Landing community, right off FM 2920 and near Hwy 290! Open concept living area and a split floor plan for the bedrooms. You will find luxury vinyl plank flooring in all of the wet areas and carpet in the living and bedrooms. Kitchen features a breakfast bar, breakfast nook, stainless appliances, including a gas stove, granite countertops, espresso-stained wood cabinetry, and fridge stays! Primary bedroom has an ensuite bath with tub/shower combo and a walk-in closet. One of the secondary bedrooms has a walk-in closet as well! Convenient in-home utility room! Other features are tankless water heater and garage door opener! All this on a corner lot with no neighbors on two sides and a large backyard with patio area. Community offers residents incredible amenities, including a 3.5 acre park w/ playgrounds, picnic ramada and open recreation lawn! Come see today!

Key facts

• Stainless appliances
• Granite countertops
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• BAUER LANDING COMMUNITY
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $222k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-157 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Evelyn Turlington El (math 46% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 1,084 students, 69% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1791 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,249 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.44%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,699
• List price: $222,000
• Delta: -12.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23031 Glory Orchid Dr	0.59mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,186 (-1%)	1mo	$249,900	$211	64
20011 Epirus Shores Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+13%)	4mo	$220,000	$163	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-51,900
• Equity at exit: $33,101

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-80,923
• Equity at exit: $19,195

Cash invested: $62,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1791
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax from tax record: −$507 /mo · $6,089/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $-157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,287

Max offer price $194,249

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-31	-5% $-94	+0% $-157	+5% $-220	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-322	-5% $-240	+0% $-157	+5% $-75	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-45	-0.5pp $-101	base $-157	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-273

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,500
• Closing costs: $6,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22719 Klingamans Way Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,689	$1.19	3d	1	0.36mi
22023 Lost Lantern Dr Hockley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1601	$1,901	$1.19	1d	1	0.41mi
20313 Evergreen Cypress Dr Hockley, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2051	$2,353	$1.15	0d	1	0.56mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscaping

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $222,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $222,000 Active 72 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $222,000 Active 71 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $222,000 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $222,000 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $222,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $222,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $222,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $222,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $222,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $222,000 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $222,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $227,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $227,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-04-28
    price $227,000 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Welcome to this gently lived in single-story home in the Bauer Landing community, right off FM 2920 and near Hwy 290! Open concept living area and a split floor plan for the bedrooms. You will find luxury vinyl plank flooring in all of the wet areas and carpet in the living and bedrooms. Kitchen features a breakfast bar, breakfast nook, stainless appliances, including a gas stove, granite countertops, espresso-stained wood cabinetry, and fridge stays! Primary bedroom has an ensuite bath with tub/shower combo and a walk-in closet. One of the secondary bedrooms has a walk-in closet as well! Convenient in-home utility room! Other features are tankless water heater and garage door opener! All this on a corner lot with no neighbors on two sides and a large backyard with patio area. Community offers residents incredible amenities, including a 3.5 acre park w/ playgrounds, picnic ramada and open recreation lawn! Come see today!

16. 2026-04-07
    listed $232,000 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Welcome to this gently lived in single-story home in the Bauer Landing community, right off FM 2920 and near Hwy 290! Open concept living area and a split floor plan for the bedrooms. You will find luxury vinyl plank flooring in all of the wet areas and carpet in the living and bedrooms. Kitchen features a breakfast bar, breakfast nook, stainless appliances, including a gas stove, granite countertops, espresso-stained wood cabinetry, and fridge stays! Primary bedroom has an ensuite bath with tub/shower combo and a walk-in closet. One of the secondary bedrooms has a walk-in closet as well! Convenient in-home utility room! Other features are tankless water heater and garage door opener! All this on a corner lot with no neighbors on two sides and a large backyard with patio area. Community offers residents incredible amenities, including a 3.5 acre park w/ playgrounds, picnic ramada and open recreation lawn! Come see today!

17. 2025-06-28
    historical
18. 2025-05-11
    listed $239,900 Active
19. 2025-05-10
    historical
20. 2025-02-23
    price $244,900
21. 2024-12-13
    listed $249,900 Active
22. 2024-09-13
    historical
23. 2024-07-11
    listed $255,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,089 · $507/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,089 · $507/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,064
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,435
• − Property taxes: −$6,089
• − Insurance: −$1,110
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,005
• − Management: −$2,005
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$6,458
• Taxable loss: −$5,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,333
• After-tax cash flow: $-552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home in Bauer Landing is in good condition with no major repairs needed. It features a split floor plan, luxury vinyl plank flooring, and stainless appliances. The exterior is in good condition with a brick and siding exterior. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim and cleaning of the gutters to enhance its curb appeal and maintain its rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $227,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listed $232,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-11 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2025-05-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-02-23 Price Changed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2024-09-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-07-11 Listed $255,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+73.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,089 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.