441 S State St #5 · Orem, UT 84058

$89,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 938 sqft · Manufactured · 47 Days on market

Built 1984 435 sqft lot $550/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Open living/dining layout with functional kitchen and in-home laundry. Covered front porch for relaxing, private yard with space to enjoy, plus storage shed. Off-street parking and convenient access to shopping, dining, and main roads.

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Covered front porch
• Private yard

Tags

• OPEN LIVING DINING LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• IN HOME LAUNDRY
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE YARD
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $550; HOA fee covers water, sewer and trash; Pets permitted

Exterior

• Parking: 3 uncovered/open parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Mobile-style property; Built/standing condition; Residential use
• Construction: Mobile construction
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Fully fenced, secluded yard; Flat terrain with full landscaping and fruit trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and free-standing range/oven
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Gas oven and free-standing range/oven; Blinds and drapes
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $90 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in UT, #389 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Alpine District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in UT (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Centennial Elementary (math 53% / reading 50%, grade C-, #144 of 585 statewide, top 25%, 729 students, 41% FRL); Orem High (math 22% / reading 39%, grade F, #118 of 171 statewide, top 69%, 1,287 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,326 units permitted in Utah County in 2024 (1,053 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Utah County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.

Recommended offer $87,299 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.78% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.30%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-8,676
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $472
• Equity at exit: $7,781

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Utah: 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 84058

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,350/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$550
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $89,999

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
360 S State St Orem, UT	5.0	1.0–3.0	1325	$2,236	$1.69	14d	1	0.19mi
625 S Orem Blvd Orem, UT	2.0	2.0	950	$1,449	$1.53	2d	5	0.23mi
381 S 100 W Unit 1 Orem, UT	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	19d	1	0.36mi
154 W 800 S Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	750	$1,500	$2.00	14d	1	0.60mi
40 N Orem Blvd Orem, UT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1009	$1,657	$1.64	2d	8	0.71mi
45 E 100 N Unit 45 Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	850	$1,325	$1.56	14d	1	0.73mi
80 E 1000 S Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	1073	$1,595	$1.49	14d	1	0.73mi
753 E 360 S Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	23d	1	0.73mi
845 S 750 E Orem, UT	3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,109	$2.11	2d	17	0.90mi
101 Starcrest Dr Orem, UT	2.0	1.0–1.5	1000	$1,325	$1.32	23d	6	0.90mi
491 W 700 S Orem, UT	3.0	1.0	600	$1,400	$2.33	14d	1	0.92mi
345 400 E Unit 345 Orem, UT	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	14d	1	1.02mi
321 N Main St Unit 323 Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	14d	1	1.04mi
246 W 270 N Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	2d	1	1.07mi
235 N 800 E Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	725	$1,325	$1.83	23d	1	1.13mi
255 500 N Unit 255 Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	837	$1,286	$1.54	2d	1	1.22mi
1465 S 70 E Orem, UT	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,249	$1.18	2d	1	1.27mi
1472 S 100 E Orem, UT	3.0	1.0	1062	$1,400	$1.32	2d	1	1.29mi
1460 S State St Orem, UT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,669	$1.92	2d	9	1.34mi
1219 S 580 W Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	672	$1,206	$1.80	2d	5	1.36mi
384 E 1500 S Orem, UT	2.0	1.5	978	$1,225	$1.25	23d	1	1.38mi
1550 S 175 East St Unit D Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	803	$1,250	$1.56	19d	1	1.38mi
759 E 1400 S Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	830	$1,200	$1.45	2d	1	1.40mi
1537 S 450 E Orem, UT	3.0	1.0	1038	$1,450	$1.40	23d	1	1.42mi
390 720 N Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	820	$1,175	$1.43	2d	1	1.48mi
335 W 620 N Unit 335 Orem, UT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,345	$1.49	23d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $550 · $6,600/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,999 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,999 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,999 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,999 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,999 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,999 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,999 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,999 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,999 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,999 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,999 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,999 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,999 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-03
    listed $89,999 Active
17. 2001-06-08
    historical
18. 2001-03-08
    listed $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,350
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − HOA: −$6,600
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $47
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$11
• After-tax cash flow: $1,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine District
• NCES district ID: 4900030
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $68,595
• Composite: 42.48/100
• National rank: #3213
• State rank: #25 of 80 in UT

Livability — Orem

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #389

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orem, UT
• County: Utah County · 661,754 people
• City population: 94,197
• Metro: Provo-Orem, UT
• Population (ZIP): 35,099
• Household income: $74,553
• Rent vs Own: 57.9% rent · 42.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1149.0

Population outlook (Utah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 693,420 people
• By 2030: 757,324 · +9.2%
• By 2040: 893,178 · +28.8%
• By 2050: 1,035,842 · +49.4%
• By 2075: 1,376,733 · +98.5%
• By 2100: 1,609,388 · +132.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Utah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 28.5% · R 68.3% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +19.1pp toward D · 2008: -58.9pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+37.3 2012: R+78.5 2008: R+58.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -318.60%
• Current HPI: 292.9526
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.87%
• Metro: Provo-Orem, UT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in UT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$3B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Listed $89,999 WFRMLS
• 2001-06-08 Listing Removed — WFRMLS
• 2001-03-08 Listed $42,000 WFRMLS