311 Ferness · Pittsburg, CA 94565

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 992 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition $207/sqft · 34% above area Est $153k · 34% over ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 311 Ferness Lane in Pittsburg, CA. A beautifully remodeled 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offering 992 sq ft of comfortable, modern living in a desirable all-ages community. This move-in-ready home features a bright, open layout with updated flooring, fresh finishes, and abundant natural light throughout. The upgraded kitchen offers ample cabinetry and a functional design ideal for everyday living and entertaining, while both bathrooms have been tastefully remodeled for a clean, contemporary feel. The spacious primary suite includes a private bath, and the additional bedrooms provide flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. Located in a well-maintained community, this

Key facts

• Private bath
• Upgraded kitchen
• Parking

Tags

• REMODELED MOBILE HOME
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• TASTEFULLY REMODELED BATHROOMS
• PRIVATE BATH
• WELL-MAINTAINED COMMUNITY
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Pittsburg, CA 94565 (311 Ferness); Cross street: Polaris Dr; Directions: South on Polaris. Left on Ferness and left again.
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listing also shows a land lease amount of $920)

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts in kitchen (electric)
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Single-wide; Built in 1973
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal skirting; Concord manufactured home
• Exterior features: Landscaped backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Breakfast area; 220-volt outlet in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring; Living room with unspecified 'Other' feature; Dining room with unspecified 'Other' feature
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookup inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $526 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 3.4% in Pittsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#687 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Pittsburg Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,069 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,850 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.00%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,707
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: 34.24%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
86 La Habra #86	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+5%)	12mo	$185,000	$178	68
109 Klamath #109	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,120 (+13%)	19mo	$259,900	$232	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,246
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $21,487
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94565

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $526

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $668	-5% $597	+0% $526	+5% $456	+10% $385
Rent	-10% $332	-5% $429	+0% $526	+5% $624	+10% $721
Rate	-1.0pp $630	-0.5pp $579	base $526	+0.5pp $473	+1.0pp $419

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1010 Power Ave Pittsburg, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$2,169	$2.65	3d	12	0.44mi
1249 Beacon St Unit 2 Pittsburg, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,500	$2.78	24d	1	1.02mi
505 W 10th St Pittsburg, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	416	$2,458	$5.90	5d	8	1.08mi
35 Roberts St Unit b Bay Point, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,795	$2.24	2d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $205,000 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 37 DOM
16. 2023-01-30
    price $165,000
17. 2022-12-02
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,516
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $3,246
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$779
• After-tax cash flow: $5,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready mobile home features updated flooring, fresh finishes, and a bright, open layout, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value.
• Both Upgrading appliances — Improves functionality and appeal for potential buyers/renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value for potential buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value. ↑
• Both Upgrading appliances — Improves functionality and appeal for potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value for potential buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsburg Unified
• NCES district ID: 0630600
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,872
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #12238
• State rank: #1069 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pittsburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #687
• US rank: #20922

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pittsburg, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 100,488
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 100,488
• Household income: $95,556
• Rent vs Own: 39.1% rent · 60.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3942.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% Two or more races 19% Asian 17% White 16% Black 13% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -478.40%
• Current HPI: 376.2576
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.11%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2023-01-30 Price Changed $165,000 BAREIS
• 2022-12-02 Listed $175,000 BAREIS