7272 New York 81 · East Durham, NY 12423

$159,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1955 0.41 ac lot $237/sqft · 35% above area Est $117k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cozy cottage featuring a spacious living room with wood flooring, a kitchen, dining room, and one large bedroom and bathroom, all set on a generous 0.41‑acre lot. This property offers many updates including; deck, electric hookup, septic system, windows, roof, and a new hot water tank. Previously used as a summer residence, it's ideally located close to shopping, restaurants, festivals, Zoom Flume, Ski Windham and Hunter Mountain, hiking, and more.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• New deck
• Spacious living room

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• NEW DECK
• UPDATED ELECTRIC HOOKUP
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• NEWER ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $223 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.9% in East Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cairo-Durham Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #470 of 590 in NY (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $159k implies a 330% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.81%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $117,453
• List price: $159,000
• Delta: 35.37%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.07% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $34,015
• Equity at exit: $72,137

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.26×
• Total profit: $100,489
• Equity at exit: $111,674

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12423

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,801/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $223

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,413

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,000 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,000 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 126 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,000 Active 116 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,000 Active 115 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,000 Active 114 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 113 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,000 Active 112 DOM
16. 2026-02-07
    listed $159,000 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    Cozy cottage featuring a spacious living room with wood flooring, a kitchen, dining room, and one large bedroom and bathroom, all set on a generous 0.41‑acre lot. This property offers many updates including; deck, electric hookup, septic system, windows, roof, and a new hot water tank. Previously used as a summer residence, it's ideally located close to shopping, restaurants, festivals, Zoom Flume, Ski Windham and Hunter Mountain, hiking, and more.

17. 2025-11-17
    status Active
18. 2025-11-17
    status Active
19. 2025-09-17
    status Pending
20. 2025-09-17
    status Pending
21. 2025-09-17
    historical
22. 2025-08-20
    price $160,000
23. 2025-08-20
    price $160,000
24. 2025-08-05
    price $170,000
25. 2025-08-05
    price $170,000
26. 2025-06-23
    listed $180,000 Active
27. 2025-06-22
    listed $180,000 Active
28. 1998-12-30
    soldstatus $37,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,801 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,244 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$443/yr (+$37/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,801
• − Insurance: −$1,592
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$41
• After-tax cash flow: $2,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cairo-Durham Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606160
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $46,192
• Composite: 37.84/100
• National rank: #4330
• State rank: #470 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Durham

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,033
• Population (ZIP): 1,033

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Two or more races 32% Hispanic / Latino 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 12% Italian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.07%
• Current HPI: 412.075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+329.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-07 Listed $159,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-11-17 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2025-09-17 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2025-09-17 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-09-17 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $160,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $160,000 Global MLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $170,000 Global MLS
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $170,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $180,000 Global MLS
• 2025-06-22 Listed $180,000 HVCRMLS
• 1998-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,801 · -5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.