1245 E 3rd St · Bethlehem, PA 18015

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,430 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1915 1,700 sqft lot Est $220k · 10% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice Starter Home For First Time Home Buyer or Great Investment Property. This Home Offers 3 Bedrooms, 1 Bath, 1 Half Bath, Hardwood Floors, Eat-In Kitchen, Diningroom and Covered Front and Back Porch. Walking Distance To Lehigh, Casino, and Downtown South Bethlehem.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Formal dining room
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story house; Brick construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Linoleum; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Full bathroom on the first floor; Full bathroom in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with radiators; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Attic; Dining area; Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Storage
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $328 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.3% in Bethlehem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Bethlehem Area SD (urban): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #342 of 539 in PA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $199k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.06%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $220,220
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1229 E 3rd St	0.03mi	3/1.5	1,430 (0%)	7mo	$200,000	$140	93
208 Hobart St	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,313 (-8%)	1mo	$140,000	$107	81
1252 E 4th St	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-10%)	0mo	$245,000	$191	75
1008 E 3rd St	0.34mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,458 (+2%)	8mo	$260,000	$178	68
412 Atlantic St	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,337 (-6%)	0mo	$245,000	$183	64
616 E 5th St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,401 (-2%)	0mo	$249,900	$178	63
1137 Mechanic St	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,236 (-14%)	8mo	$169,000	$137	59
1543 E 8th St	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,504 (+5%)	9mo	$201,000	$134	58
314 State St	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,314 (-8%)	8mo	$166,000	$126	57
815 Laufer St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,264 (-12%)	6mo	$159,550	$126	44
649 Shields St	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,258 (-12%)	4mo	$204,900	$163	44
630 Pierce St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,247 (-13%)	5mo	$192,500	$154	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,358
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.17×
• Total profit: $65,180
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18015

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,062 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,097/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,647

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1209 Mechanic St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1003	$2,000	$1.99	21d	1	0.11mi
1275 E 4th St Unit 202 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,950	$1.59	23d	1	0.13mi
1201 E 4th St Unit 4 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	0.14mi
1306 E 4th St #3 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,550	$1.55	43d	1	0.16mi
1122 E 4th St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.0	1706	$1,800	$1.06	14d	1	0.26mi
1113 E 4th St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	0.26mi
1236 E 7th St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1424	$2,350	$1.65	2d	1	0.30mi
314 State St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1654	$2,650	$1.60	14d	1	0.35mi
938 E 4th St #401 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	928	$2,150	$2.32	43d	1	0.38mi
938 E 4th St Unit 201 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	982	$2,350	$2.39	43d	1	0.38mi
740 Laufer St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	910	$1,650	$1.81	14d	1	0.59mi
610 E 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	974	$3,008	$3.09	2d	8	0.63mi
612 E 5th St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,500	$1.38	43d	1	0.68mi
824 E 8th St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.5	952	$1,400	$1.47	43d	1	0.70mi
436 Pierce St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1452	$2,250	$1.55	2d	1	0.71mi
650 E North St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,350	$2.51	14d	7	0.72mi
417 Linden St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1699	$2,450	$1.44	2d	1	0.80mi
239 E Church St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	2.5	1724	$2,950	$1.71	23d	1	0.83mi
311 E 3rd St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1189	$2,330	$1.96	2d	3	0.87mi
802 Elm St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.5	1520	$2,800	$1.84	21d	1	0.94mi
822 Elm St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1406	$2,195	$1.56	14d	1	0.97mi
537 Goepp Cir Unit B Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.5	1225	$1,895	$1.55	43d	1	1.01mi
316 E Union Blvd Bethlehem, PA	4.0	2.0	1460	$2,145	$1.47	43d	1	1.03mi
746 Linden St Unit 2 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,975	$1.96	43d	1	1.03mi
42 E Wall St Bethlehem, PA	4.0	1.0	1474	$2,550	$1.73	23d	1	1.09mi
214 Clearfield St Freemansburg, PA	3.0	1.0	966	$1,700	$1.76	2d	1	1.11mi
229 E Union Blvd Unit 2nd Floor Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	982	$1,595	$1.62	2d	1	1.11mi
229 E Union Blvd Unit 1st Floor Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,675	$1.68	2d	1	1.11mi
11 W 2nd St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,550	$1.57	23d	4	1.13mi
30 E Market St Apt 1 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	43d	1	1.14mi
1138 Arcadia St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1802	$2,095	$1.16	43d	1	1.15mi
1240 Pembroke Rd #2 Bethlehem, PA	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,495	$1.15	43d	1	1.17mi
1240 Pembroke Rd #1 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1249	$1,795	$1.44	43d	1	1.17mi
315 Clearfield St Freemansburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	2d	1	1.20mi
315 Clearfield St Unit A Freemansburg, PA	2.0	1.0	1040	$2,000	$1.92	2d	1	1.20mi
326 E Frankford St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	43d	1	1.20mi
326 E Frankford St Bethlehem, PA	2.0	2.0	1250	$2,300	$1.84	23d	1	1.20mi
122 E Goepp St Unit 1 Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1137	$1,895	$1.67	2d	1	1.24mi
830 Media St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,100	$1.86	23d	1	1.25mi
830 Media St Bethlehem, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$2,100	$1.86	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   remarks 693-char remark
4. 2026-06-14
   listed $199,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,097 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,621 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$524/yr (+$44/mo · 25.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,097
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,979
• − Management: −$1,979
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$181
• After-tax cash flow: $3,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bethlehem Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4203570
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,124
• Composite: 34.92/100
• National rank: #5068
• State rank: #342 of 539 in PA

Livability — Bethlehem

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #1122

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bethlehem, PA
• County: Northampton County · 236,814 people
• City population: 129,661
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,852
• Household income: $60,800
• Rent vs Own: 49.5% rent · 50.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1525.0

Population outlook (Northampton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 312,227 people
• By 2030: 314,769 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 316,914 · +1.5%
• By 2050: 318,037 · +1.9%
• By 2075: 334,003 · +7.0%
• By 2100: 344,696 · +10.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 19% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Danish 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northampton

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.6% · R 50.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.8 2020: D+0.7 2016: R+3.8 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.95%
• Current HPI: 277.4721
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.18%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+123.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $199,000 GLVRMLS
• 2010-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2010-07-30 Sold (MLS) $78,000 GLVRMLS
• 2009-11-12 Listed $88,900 GLVRMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,097 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.