2008 E 38th Ave · Anchorage, AK 99508

$585,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,754 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 7,000 sqft lot Est $625k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.4/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath multifamily listed at $585k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-651/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $575k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $458k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $458k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Anchorage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#6 in AK, #2,553 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Anchorage School District (urban): math 37% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #6 of 21 in AK (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Otis Elementary (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #128 of 156 statewide, top 86%, 302 students, 72% FRL); Wendler Middle School (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #29 of 36 statewide, top 80%, 422 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 38% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 25% at this address vs 40% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Anchorage School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 306 units permitted in Anchorage Municipality in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,578/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($79k/yr) (locally 1248% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anchorage County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $457,800 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.40%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $625,158
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1711 Crescent Cir	0.19mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,580 (-6%)	19mo	$585,000	$227	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-89,591
• Equity at exit: $87,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-45,496
• Equity at exit: $50,580

Cash invested: $163,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99508

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 21.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,578 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,068
• Tax from tax record: −$359 /mo · $4,312/yr
• Insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$961
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,647

Max offer price $575,410

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $277	-5% $111	+0% $-54	+5% $-220	+10% $-385
Rent	-10% $-416	-5% $-235	+0% $-54	+5% $127	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $240	-0.5pp $95	base $-54	+0.5pp $-206	+1.0pp $-360

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	1.5	$4,578
Total (2 units)			$4,578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $146,250
• Closing costs: $17,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1417 Matterhorn Way Anchorage, AK	4.0	2.5	2352	$4,000	$1.70	22d	1	0.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-12
   listed $585,000 Active
3. 1995-07-31
   soldstatus
4. 1995-05-07
   listed $199,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,312 · $359/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,637 · $470/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,325/yr (+$110/mo · 30.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,769
• − Property taxes: −$4,312
• − Insurance: −$2,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,395
• − Management: −$4,395
• − Depreciation: −$17,018
• Taxable loss: −$10,878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,611
• After-tax cash flow: $1,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anchorage School District
• NCES district ID: 0200180
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,447
• Composite: 37.0/100
• National rank: #4523
• State rank: #6 of 21 in AK

Livability — Anchorage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2553

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anchorage, AK
• County: Anchorage Borough · 246,594 people
• City population: 218,117
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 36,458
• Household income: $79,314
• Rent vs Own: 46.8% rent · 53.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1248.0

Population outlook (Anchorage County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,993 people
• By 2030: 321,771 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 335,493 · +6.5%
• By 2050: 352,799 · +12.0%
• By 2075: 414,771 · +31.7%
• By 2100: 474,485 · +50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Two or more races 14% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 10% Pacific Islander 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Anchorage

• 2024 margin: D (+12.7) · D 56.3% · R 43.7%
• 2016→2024 swing: +27.9pp toward D · 2016: -15.2pp · 2024: 12.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.7 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.51%
• Current HPI: 257.8807
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.88%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+193.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $585,000 AKMLS
• 1995-07-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-05-07 Listed $199,500 AKMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,312 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.