8444 Vila Gale Way · Elk Grove, CA 95757

$628,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,194 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 2016 3,563 sqft lot $286/sqft · 8% below area Est $682k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

AMAZING VALUE FOR 4 BEDROOMS! 4 Bedroom, 2.5 Bath Home With Vaulted ceilings in living room when you enter, the open floor plan of this home showcases amazing windows filling the home with natural lights. Upgraded kitchen with granite countertops, island, stainless steel appliances. Located with schools, supermarkets, freeways, and a variety of restaurants just a mile away. Come and show !!!!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Upgraded kitchen
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• VAULTED CEILINGS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NATURAL LIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $628k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $348k (44.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $343k (45.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $343k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#212 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Arlene Hein Elementary (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #265 of 1,571 statewide, top 17%, 846 students, 30% FRL); Elizabeth Pinkerton Middle (math 53% / reading 70%, grade B+, #52 of 498 statewide, top 11%, 982 students, 29% FRL); Cosumnes Oaks High (math 58% / reading 73%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,212 students, 31% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+16 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $67k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $63k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$108k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($571k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $342,753 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.83%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $681,934
• List price: $628,000
• Delta: -7.91%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10032 Wagoner Way	0.47mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,127 (-3%)	0mo	$705,000	$331	66
8337 Columbo Cir	0.49mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,203 (+0%)	9mo	$685,000	$311	64
9836 Partington Cir	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,301 (+5%)	10mo	$660,000	$287	57
10123 Ludmilla Way	0.68mi	4/3.0	2,214 (+1%)	9mo	$601,929	$272	57
8543 Kissa Cir	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,166 (-1%)	10mo	$711,929	$329	55
9948 Penela Way	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,476 (+13%)	1mo	$694,000	$280	52
8462 Kissa Cir	0.66mi	4/2.0	2,002 (-9%)	2mo	$680,000	$340	51
10016 Wagoner Way	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,476 (+13%)	8mo	$925,000	$374	49
8425 Marisol Way	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,435 (+11%)	5mo	$685,000	$281	46
9995 Swordfish Cir	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,352 (+7%)	8mo	$697,000	$296	46
10120 Yanna Way	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,435 (+11%)	7mo	$714,855	$294	44
8618 Litz Brothers Way	0.64mi	4/3.0	2,476 (+13%)	6mo	$750,000	$303	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $246,346
• Equity at exit: $565,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.64×
• Total profit: $816,646
• Equity at exit: $1,220,066

Cash invested: $175,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95757

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,428 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,293
• Tax from tax record: −$740 /mo · $8,881/yr
• Insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$720
• Net cashflow: $-1,587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,437

Max offer price $347,596

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,232	-5% $-1,410	+0% $-1,587	+5% $-1,765	+10% $-1,943
Rent	-10% $-1,858	-5% $-1,723	+0% $-1,587	+5% $-1,452	+10% $-1,317
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,271	-0.5pp $-1,428	base $-1,587	+0.5pp $-1,750	+1.0pp $-1,916

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $157,000
• Closing costs: $18,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9773 Philta Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2564	$3,500	$1.37	6d	1	0.65mi
10110 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1628	$3,300	$2.03	9d	1	0.70mi
10114 Elise Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2214	$2,995	$1.35	9d	1	0.70mi
8418 Everson Ln Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,400	$1.37	25d	1	0.79mi
9534 Sunlight Ln Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,650	$1.86	19d	1	1.01mi
8358 Akino Ct Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2321	$3,200	$1.38	45d	1	1.03mi
8403 Sinesky Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1579	$2,995	$1.90	12d	1	1.04mi
8471 Anker Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	2107	$3,200	$1.52	25d	1	1.06mi
8420 Mondale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2450	$3,950	$1.61	45d	1	1.07mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	23d	1	1.07mi
10365 Bayson Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,300	$1.64	22d	1	1.07mi
10123 Blue Whale Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2445	$4,200	$1.72	18d	1	1.08mi
8008 Poppy Ridge Rd Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2073	$3,375	$1.63	25d	1	1.11mi
8371 Valpane Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2018	$3,250	$1.61	0d	1	1.11mi
8376 Solfrid Way Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2070	$3,200	$1.55	19d	1	1.17mi
10333 Tempier Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	3.0	2795	$3,350	$1.20	45d	1	1.17mi
10333 Tempier Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	2795	$3,195	$1.14	19d	1	1.17mi
8357 Eleodoro Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	1730	$3,245	$1.88	4d	1	1.20mi
10446 Tamburlane Dr Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.5	2693	$3,495	$1.30	45d	1	1.25mi
7706 Brabham Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,995	$2.09	45d	1	1.27mi
8151 Lavigne Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	3.0	2928	$3,445	$1.18	45d	1	1.31mi
7405 Rothschild Ct Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1859	$2,650	$1.43	3d	1	1.31mi
8357 Luan Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1967	$2,895	$1.47	21d	1	1.37mi
8144 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	1727	$2,599	$1.50	14d	1	1.40mi
8464 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	4.0	2.5	1727	$2,595	$1.50	4d	1	1.44mi
8461 Crystal Walk Cir Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.5	2250	$2,600	$1.16	46d	1	1.46mi
10350 Ducasse Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	3.5	2586	$3,495	$1.35	0d	1	1.46mi
9270 Emerald Crest Dr Elk Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,550	$1.75	5d	1	1.48mi
9867 Tarzo Way Elk Grove, CA	3.0	3.0	1905	$2,700	$1.42	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $628,000 Pending 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $628,000 Active 110 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $628,000 Active 109 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $628,000 Active 108 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $628,000 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $628,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $628,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $628,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $628,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2025-02-14
    soldstatus $641,000
11. 2022-04-15
    price $2,595

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,881 · $740/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,881 · $740/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 25 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,178
• − Property taxes: −$8,881
• − Insurance: −$3,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,290
• − Management: −$3,290
• − Depreciation: −$18,269
• Taxable loss: −$30,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,420
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Elk Grove

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #212
• US rank: #6681

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elk Grove, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 190,119
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 56,764
• Household income: $138,198
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 40% White 21% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Russian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 28% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.15%
• Current HPI: 328.5885
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+24601.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $641,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-15 Price Changed $2,595 RENT.

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,881 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.