13288 Cardinal · Sherwood Shores, TX 73439

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1986 7,806 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The "Hook, Line, and Sinker" Lake Retreat Pack a bag. That’s it. That’s the whole to-do list. Perched just a mile from the shimmering waters of Lake Texoma, this isn’t just a house; it’s your pre-packaged lifestyle. Whether you’re hunting for a high-performing turn-key vacation rental or a pristine, low-maintenance homestead, this property delivers "lake life" without the "work-life" baggage. Step inside to an airy, open-concept living area where the kitchen, dining, and lounging spaces flow as seamlessly as the lake breeze. The interior boasts durable tile flooring throughout—perfect for sandy toes and easy cleanup—an

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Private boat ramp
• Private front deck

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• DURABLE TILE FLOORING
• PRIVATE FRONT DECK
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• RAISED BACK DECK
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel driveway (off-street parking)
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-story; Faces south; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built (year source: appraiser)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Enclosed porch; Deck; Gravel driveway; Barbed wire fencing; Wooded lot; Less than 1 mile to Texoma Lake with boat ramp/lift access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storm windows; Laminate counters; Ceiling fan(s); Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $614 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.8% in Sherwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,519 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $165k implies a 489% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,100 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.94%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.79×
• Total profit: $128,874
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.0%
• Equity multiple: 8.55×
• Total profit: $348,618
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $368/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $614

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,221

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $707	-5% $660	+0% $614	+5% $567	+10% $520
Rent	-10% $456	-5% $535	+0% $614	+5% $693	+10% $772
Rate	-1.0pp $697	-0.5pp $656	base $614	+0.5pp $571	+1.0pp $527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $165,000 Pending 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $165,000
17. 2026-03-27
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 2002-05-02
    soldstatus $28,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $368 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,020 · $252/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,652/yr (+$221/mo · 720.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$368
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $4,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,177
• After-tax cash flow: $6,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — Sherwood Shores

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1519
• US rank: #25941

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+489.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $165,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-03-27 Listed $175,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2002-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $368 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.