48 N 3rd Ave · Mills, WY 82604

$130,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 922 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1927 0.46 ac lot Est $168k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1927

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.0% in Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in WY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Natrona County School District #1 (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 41 in WY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 203 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 310 units permitted in Natrona County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Natrona County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.82%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,804
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 N 3rd Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	922 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$141	100
132 Pioneer Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	954 (+4%)	11mo	$179,900	$189	79
5100 W Marmon St	0.17mi	2/1.0	858 (-7%)	4mo	$195,000	$227	77
62 Roosevelt St	0.20mi	2/1.8	928 (+1%)	13mo	$62,900	$68	75
5277 W Buick	0.33mi	2/2.0	980 (+6%)	2mo	$178,000	$182	68
223 N 1st St	0.20mi	2/1.0	840 (-9%)	10mo	$90,000	$107	67
785 Discovery St	0.62mi	2/1.0	944 (+2%)	6mo	$254,900	$270	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,137
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $22,404
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Wyoming: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+25
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable; small market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 82604

• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $769/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,013

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $335	+0% $298	+5% $261	+10% $224
Rent	-10% $188	-5% $243	+0% $298	+5% $353	+10% $408
Rate	-1.0pp $363	-0.5pp $331	base $298	+0.5pp $264	+1.0pp $230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-07
   historical
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $769 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $793 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$24/yr (+$2/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$769
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,334
• − Management: −$1,334
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $1,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$366
• After-tax cash flow: $3,208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Natrona County School District #1
• NCES district ID: 5604510
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,217
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3437
• State rank: #32 of 41 in WY

Livability — Mills

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mills, WY
• County: Natrona County · 72,922 people
• City population: 1,890
• Metro: Casper, WY
• Population (ZIP): 27,487
• Household income: $79,118
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 396.0

Population outlook (Natrona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,530 people
• By 2030: 107,084 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 124,838 · +26.7%
• By 2050: 143,617 · +45.8%
• By 2075: 192,378 · +95.2%
• By 2100: 228,435 · +131.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Natrona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 24.8% · R 73.5% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -34.4pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+52.2 2012: R+41.1 2008: R+34.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.49%
• Current HPI: 180.7072
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Casper, WY
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Delisted — WMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $130,000 WMLS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $769 · -15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.