1670 Astoria Rd · Waycross, GA 31503

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 117 Days on market

Built 2013 2.55 ac lot $130/sqft · 23% below area Est $185k · 24% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home sits on 2.6 acres with 2 ponds and a big front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Another room was added on but never got finished so it can be used for anything. House comes with all appliances with a little extra. Property being sold as is.

Key facts

• 2 ponds
• Big front porch
• Unfinished room

Tags

• 2.6 ACRES
• 2 PONDS
• BIG FRONT PORCH
• UNFINISHED ROOM
• ALL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-965/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#519 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Ware County (town): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #95 of 174 in GA (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Memorial Drive Elementary School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #485 of 1,228 statewide, top 41%, 353 students, 94% FRL); Waycross Middle School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #249 of 470 statewide, top 55%, 583 students, 86% FRL); Ware County High School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #122 of 424 statewide, top 30%, 1,589 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 64% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Ware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ware County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,295 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $184,846
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -24.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3715 Memorial Dr	0.44mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,189 (+10%)	1mo	$265,000	$223	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-27,788
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-30,721
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31503

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,123 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $128,369

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $16	-5% $-32	+0% $-80	+5% $-129	+10% $-177
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-125	+0% $-80	+5% $-36	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-45	base $-80	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $140,000 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $140,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Home sits on 2.6 acres with 2 ponds and a big front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Another room was added on but never got finished so it can be used for anything. House comes with all appliances with a little extra. Property being sold as is.

18. 2026-04-20
    price $150,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Home sits on 2.6 acres with 2 ponds and a big front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Another room was added on but never got finished so it can be used for anything. House comes with all appliances with a little extra. Property being sold as is.

19. 2026-03-19
    price $160,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Home sits on 2.6 acres with 2 ponds and a big front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Another room was added on but never got finished so it can be used for anything. House comes with all appliances with a little extra. Property being sold as is.

20. 2026-03-09
    price $167,000 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Home sits on 2.6 acres with 2 ponds and a big front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Another room was added on but never got finished so it can be used for anything. House comes with all appliances with a little extra. Property being sold as is.

21. 2026-02-24
    listed $175,000 New 256-char remark

    Show marketing remark (256 chars)

    Home sits on 2.6 acres with 2 ponds and a big front porch. Home has 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Another room was added on but never got finished so it can be used for anything. House comes with all appliances with a little extra. Property being sold as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,475
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,078
• − Management: −$1,078
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$3,396
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$815
• After-tax cash flow: $-150/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ware County
• NCES district ID: 1305430
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $35,231
• Composite: 25.6/100
• National rank: #7415
• State rank: #95 of 174 in GA

Livability — Waycross

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #519
• US rank: #23458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 36,207
• Population (ZIP): 23,173

Population outlook (Ware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,313 people
• By 2030: 32,071 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 29,587 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 27,197 · -18.4%
• By 2075: 22,323 · -33.0%
• By 2100: 18,197 · -45.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ware

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.3% · R 71.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.7pp toward R · 2008: -34.5pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+41.7 2012: R+33.9 2008: R+34.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.44%
• Current HPI: 230.6527
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $140,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $150,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $160,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $167,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listed $175,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $22 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.