BELHAVEN Plan · Lexington, NC 27295

$298,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,991 sqft · SingleFamily · 55 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Belhaven, one of our two-story floorplans at Middleton, located in Lexington, North Carolina, offering 3 modern elevations. This floorplan features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 1,991 sq ft. of living space, and a 2-car garage. Upon entering through the front door, you will encounter a Flex Room to the left, before passing by the staircase and powder room. The inviting foyer leads you to the heart of the home, where an open-concept layout encompasses the spacious living room, and a well-appointed kitchen that opens to the covered patio. The kitchen is equipped with stainless steel appliances, beautiful granite countertops, a functional kitchen island, and a corner pantry.

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• Covered patio
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• COVERED PATIO
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $298,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $324,265.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-611 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (21.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#89 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities D-.
• Davidson County Schools (rural): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #62 of 178 in NC (top 35%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 671 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 35d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 990 units permitted in Davidson County in 2024 (54 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Davidson County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,371 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.07%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,265
• List price: $298,990
• Delta: -7.79%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Waylon Ct	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,744 (-12%)	1mo	$269,990	$155	73
396 Middleton Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-11%)	0mo	$278,000	$158	66
297 Lantanna Ave	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,164 (+9%)	8mo	$300,000	$139	58
309 Zinnia Pl	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,164 (+9%)	5mo	$325,000	$150	55
163 Lantanna Ave	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,164 (+9%)	8mo	$310,000	$143	54
315 Lantanna Ave	0.44mi	4/2.5	2,250 (+13%)	8mo	$339,000	$151	51
317 Zinnia Pl	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (+9%)	5mo	$325,000	$150	51
237 Zinnia Pl	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-11%)	6mo	$315,000	$179	46
215 Zinnia Pl	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,250 (+13%)	6mo	$329,000	$146	46
253 Zinnia Pl	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,250 (+13%)	7mo	$339,000	$151	45
236 Zinnia Pl	0.62mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-11%)	6mo	$329,000	$187	45
172 Zinnia Pl	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-11%)	7mo	$299,000	$170	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-90,632
• Equity at exit: $48,349

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-125,682
• Equity at exit: $28,037

Cash invested: $90,794 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 13 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $296,490 ($148/sqft)
• Median days on market: 135 d
• This list price: 54% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.2% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 27295

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 671
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,700
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$405 /mo · $4,864/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,837

Max offer price $235,911

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-387	-5% $-499	+0% $-611	+5% $-723	+10% $-835
Rent	-10% $-774	-5% $-692	+0% $-611	+5% $-529	+10% $-448
Rate	-1.0pp $-447	-0.5pp $-528	base $-611	+0.5pp $-695	+1.0pp $-780

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,066
• Closing costs: $9,728
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
261 Lantanna Ave Lexington, NC	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,830	$1.04	34d	1	0.45mi
844 Pine Cone Ln Lexington, NC	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,850	$1.12	48d	1	1.48mi
836 Pine Cone Ln Lexington, NC	3.0	2.5	1648	$1,695	$1.03	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $298,990 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $298,990 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $298,990 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $308,990 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $308,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $308,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $308,990 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $308,990 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $308,990 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $308,990 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $308,990 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $308,990 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    price $308,990 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $318,990 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $318,990 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,990 Active 37 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $318,990 Active 36 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,164
• − Property taxes: −$4,864
• − Insurance: −$1,621
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − Depreciation: −$9,433
• Taxable loss: −$13,280
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,187
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This Belhaven floorplan is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a good layout. Minor maintenance and updates would further enhance its value for resale or rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet in bedrooms — Freshens up the interior and adds value ↑
• Rental Clean and maintain HVAC system — Ensures comfort and reduces maintenance costs ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 44/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tyro Elementary F NC #771/1,410 Nat'l #21,438/41,679 Middle Tyro Middle F NC #238/475 Nat'l #6,362/14,009 High West Davidson High C- NC #270/535 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Davidson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701140
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,696
• Composite: 42.76/100
• National rank: #3157
• State rank: #62 of 178 in NC

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Lexington

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #6051

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Davidson County · 167,156 people
• City population: 79,578
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,267
• Household income: $63,961
• Rent vs Own: 24.5% rent · 75.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Davidson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 167,156 people
• By 2030: 167,216 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 164,524 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 157,229 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 138,084 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 112,729 · -32.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Davidson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -33.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+47.5 2016: R+49.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+33.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.39%
• Current HPI: 258.6557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.37%
• Metro: Winston-Salem, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B