1378 Timberwood Blvd · Hollymead, VA 22911

$399,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,964 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 2010 2,613 sqft lot $203/sqft · 20% above area Est $397k · at est. $120/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully upgraded townhouse in desirable North Albemarle just minutes from shopping, NGIC, DIA, AstraZeneca and Airport offering exceptional value in a prime location! Freshly painted in neutral tones with new carpet and LVP, this light-filled home welcomes you on the main level with gleaming hardwood floors, a spacious living room, and an entertainer’s kitchen featuring a built-in wine cabinet and mini fridge. A convenient half bath and laundry area with stackable unit complete this level. Upstairs, the generous primary suite boasts a walk-in closet and private en-suite bath with a walk-in shower. All bedrooms and living spaces include ceiling fans and have been recently refreshed with paint. The finished walk-out basement adds incredible flexibility with an oversized fourth bedroom or family room, large windows for natural light, a full bathroom, and ample storage space. This move-in ready home combines comfort, style, and convenience—don’t miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• $120 HOA
• Built 2010
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-470 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (20.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.8% in Hollymead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#271 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $259k; list at $399k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,220 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.05%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $396,577
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: 0.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Deerwood Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,014 (+2%)	15mo	$329,000	$163	69
101 Deerwood Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,153 (+10%)	10mo	$418,000	$194	65
3654 Airport Acres Rd	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,984 (+1%)	13mo	$459,000	$231	56
130 Deerwood Rd	0.31mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (+9%)	18mo	$510,000	$238	50
3152 Saddlebrook Ln	0.74mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,758 (-10%)	17mo	$515,000	$293	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-91,682
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-106,175
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22911

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,378/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,367

Max offer price $315,960

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2061 Lockwood Dr Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.5	1741	$2,975	$1.71	21d	1	0.12mi
2942 Templehof Ct Earlysville, VA	3.0	3.5	2361	$2,750	$1.16	13d	1	0.32mi
1100 Monacan Ln Unit 00 1065101 Earlysville, VA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,275	$1.57	43d	1	0.65mi
1100 Monacan Ln Unit 00 1070308 Earlysville, VA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,212	$1.53	43d	1	0.65mi
1100 Monacan Ln Earlysville, VA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,450	$1.69	43d	1	0.65mi
1100 Monacan Ln Unit 00 1065308 Earlysville, VA	3.0	2.0	1447	$2,212	$1.53	13d	1	0.65mi
2217 Brindle Ln Charlottesville, VA	4.0	3.5	2182	$2,900	$1.33	13d	1	0.66mi
3279 Arbor Trce Charlottesville, VA	2.0	2.5	1641	$2,100	$1.28	43d	1	0.79mi
2132 Northside Dr Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.5	2075	$3,550	$1.71	13d	1	1.06mi
5025 Huntly Ridge St Charlottesville, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1064	$2,785	$2.62	13d	70	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $399,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $399,000 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $399,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $399,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,000 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,000 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,000 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,000 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $399,000 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $399,000 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Beautifully upgraded townhouse in desirable North Albemarle just minutes from shopping, NGIC, DIA, AstraZeneca and Airport offering exceptional value in a prime location! Freshly painted in neutral tones with new carpet and LVP, this light-filled home welcomes you on the main level with gleaming hardwood floors, a spacious living room, and an entertainer’s kitchen featuring a built-in wine cabinet and mini fridge. A convenient half bath and laundry area with stackable unit complete this level. Upstairs, the generous primary suite boasts a walk-in closet and private en-suite bath with a walk-in shower. All bedrooms and living spaces include ceiling fans and have been recently refreshed with paint. The finished walk-out basement adds incredible flexibility with an oversized fourth bedroom or family room, large windows for natural light, a full bathroom, and ample storage space. This move-in ready home combines comfort, style, and convenience—don’t miss this opportunity!

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $425,000 Active 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Beautifully upgraded townhouse in desirable North Albemarle just minutes from shopping, NGIC, DIA, AstraZeneca and Airport offering exceptional value in a prime location! Freshly painted in neutral tones with new carpet and LVP, this light-filled home welcomes you on the main level with gleaming hardwood floors, a spacious living room, and an entertainer’s kitchen featuring a built-in wine cabinet and mini fridge. A convenient half bath and laundry area with stackable unit complete this level. Upstairs, the generous primary suite boasts a walk-in closet and private en-suite bath with a walk-in shower. All bedrooms and living spaces include ceiling fans and have been recently refreshed with paint. The finished walk-out basement adds incredible flexibility with an oversized fourth bedroom or family room, large windows for natural light, a full bathroom, and ample storage space. This move-in ready home combines comfort, style, and convenience—don’t miss this opportunity!

19. 2026-04-07
    historical $425,000 1000-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1000 chars)

    Beautifully upgraded townhouse in desirable North Albemarle just minutes from shopping, NGIC, DIA, AstraZeneca and Airport offering exceptional value in a prime location! Freshly painted in neutral tones with new carpet and LVP, this light-filled home welcomes you on the main level with gleaming hardwood floors, a spacious living room, and an entertainer’s kitchen featuring a built-in wine cabinet and mini fridge. A convenient half bath and laundry area with stackable unit complete this level. Upstairs, the generous primary suite boasts a walk-in closet and private en-suite bath with a walk-in shower. All bedrooms and living spaces include ceiling fans and have been recently refreshed with paint. The finished walk-out basement adds incredible flexibility with an oversized fourth bedroom or family room, large windows for natural light, a full bathroom, and ample storage space. This move-in ready home combines comfort, style, and convenience—don’t miss this opportunity!

20. 2017-04-20
    soldstatus $259,000
21. 2017-02-22
    listed $264,000
22. 2013-02-28
    historical
23. 2012-09-10
    listed $249,900
24. 2009-09-28
    soldstatus $1,120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,378 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,378 · $281/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,266
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$3,378
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,661
• − Management: −$2,661
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$12,826
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,078
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,563/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hollymead

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #9656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hollymead, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,107
• Household income: $128,235
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.54%
• Current HPI: 220.3768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-64.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $399,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $425,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $425,000 CAAR
• 2017-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $259,000 Public Records
• 2017-02-22 Listed $264,000 CAAR
• 2013-02-28 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2012-09-10 Listed $249,900 CAAR
• 2009-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $1,120,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,378 · +8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.