4011 Northern Key Dr · Plant City, FL 33565

$315,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2025 4,800 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. This two-story home features a modern exterior with mixed siding, a two-car garage, concrete driveway, covered entry, and solar panels. Inside offers an open-concept layout with neutral tile flooring, recessed lighting, and bright, modern finishes throughout. The kitchen showcases sleek cabinetry, light countertops, a center island, and stainless steel appliances. Sliding glass doors open to the backyard, enhancing the home's airy feel. The primary bathroom features a double vanity and a tiled shower. Out back, a covered patio overlooks a fenced yard with partial pond and green space views. Short sale subject to third-party approval.

Key facts

• Modern exterior
• Covered entry
• Two car garage

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• MODERN EXTERIOR
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• COVERED ENTRY
• SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage
• Home design: Single family home

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2.5 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 8 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-763/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $306k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $269k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 323 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $268,522 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-55,047
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-52,963
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 323
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,685 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$564
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,766

Max offer price $305,801

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $154	-5% $45	+0% $-64	+5% $-172	+10% $-281
Rent	-10% $-276	-5% $-170	+0% $-64	+5% $42	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $17	base $-64	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2505 Williams Rd Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	2052	$1,950	$0.95	26d	1	0.45mi
3911 N Maryland Ave Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2223	$2,600	$1.17	26d	1	0.52mi
2318 Allium Roseum Ln Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1817	$2,400	$1.32	26d	1	0.61mi
3615 Natural Trace St Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,400	$1.24	20d	1	0.71mi
3747 Capri Coast Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.5	2035	$2,695	$1.32	1d	1	0.86mi
1412 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,300	$1.49	26d	1	0.94mi
1458 Tahitian Sunrise Dr Plant City, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,395	$1.24	26d	1	0.97mi
4025 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,425	$1.55	24d	1	1.08mi
4027 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$3,200	$2.04	24d	1	1.09mi
4010 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,300	$1.47	26d	1	1.13mi
4008 Westwood Fields Loop Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,300	$1.47	26d	1	1.14mi
4005 Westwood Fields Loop Unit 4005 Plant City, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,500	$1.60	26d	1	1.15mi
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	26d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 653-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   statuslisting id $315,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   remarks 579-char remark
5. 2026-06-17
   listed $315,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,223
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,578
• − Management: −$2,578
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,138
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,473
• After-tax cash flow: $710/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B