11039 Ash Leaf Ln · Fort Worth, TX 76040

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,987 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

✨ The Pearl - Exclusive to Harston Woods Community ✨ Discover The Pearl, a beautifully designed and exclusive Oak Creek Manufactured Home, thoughtfully crafted for the Harston Woods community in Euless, Texas. This spacious residence features 4 large bedrooms and 2 full baths, with an open-concept layout that perfectly blends style and function. The oversized living area and modern kitchen make entertaining effortless, while the primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Modern kitchen
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• HARSTON WOODS COMMUNITY
• OAK CREEK MANUFACTURED HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OVERSIZED LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIMARY SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #193 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 85 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,430 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.64%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-48,426
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-60,815
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76040

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $231,406

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $-9	+0% $-94	+5% $-179	+10% $-263
Rent	-10% $-254	-5% $-174	+0% $-94	+5% $-14	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-32	base $-94	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10684 Tube Dr Unit 502 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$1,895	$1.07	4d	1	0.59mi
10604 Tube Dr Unit 10684-502 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$1,895	$1.07	3d	1	0.65mi
10552 Tube Dr Unit 803 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	44d	1	0.66mi
10548 Tube Dr Unit 704 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	44d	1	0.66mi
10520 Tube Dr Unit 10552-803 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,995	$1.25	44d	1	0.69mi
3475 Valley Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,995	$1.33	25d	1	0.72mi
3475 Valley Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,095	$1.40	44d	1	0.72mi
1601 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$2,175	$2.05	2d	227	0.90mi
1700 Sotogrande Blvd Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1321	$2,229	$1.69	8d	1	1.00mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 1769 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,718	$1.38	44d	1	1.07mi
1736 Sotogrande Blvd Unit 3121 Hurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,657	$1.29	3d	1	1.07mi
1209 Princeton Pl Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1671	$2,300	$1.38	17d	1	1.08mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$2,246	$1.80	25d	1	1.15mi
1401 Sotogrande Blvd Euless, TX	3.0	2.0	1286	$2,089	$1.62	4d	1	1.15mi
808 McCurry Ave Bedford, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,100	$1.28	44d	1	1.29mi
2620 Britany Cir Bedford, TX	3.0	2.0	2097	$2,600	$1.24	22d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-03-17
    listed $245,000 Active 528-char remark

    Show marketing remark (528 chars)

    ✨ The Pearl - Exclusive to Harston Woods Community ✨ Discover The Pearl, a beautifully designed and exclusive Oak Creek Manufactured Home, thoughtfully crafted for the Harston Woods community in Euless, Texas. This spacious residence features 4 large bedrooms and 2 full baths, with an open-concept layout that perfectly blends style and function. The oversized living area and modern kitchen make entertaining effortless, while the primary suite offers a luxurious retreat with a spa-inspired bath and generous walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,346
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good exterior and interior. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some landscaping and interior touch-ups to maintain its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's aesthetic and appeal
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains the home's fresh and inviting appearance
• Rental Regular HVAC maintenance — Keeps the home comfortable and energy-efficient

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances the home's aesthetic and appeal ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains the home's fresh and inviting appearance ↑
• Rental Regular HVAC maintenance — Keeps the home comfortable and energy-efficient ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hurst-Euless-Bedford ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824060
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,086
• Composite: 42.12/100
• National rank: #3316
• State rank: #193 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,677
• Household income: $72,661
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1361.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.78)
• Race & ethnicity: White 31% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 8% Other Asian/Pacific 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.82%
• Current HPI: 271.7474
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $245,000 Zillow