96 Wilderness Rd · Rancho Cordova, CA 95670

$57,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 824 sqft · Manufactured · 31 Days on market

Built 1967 Est $64k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new Heater 2026, new back office 2026, new laundry hook-ups 2026, and the electrical panel got an upgrade. Seller fixed many of the inspection items after moving in so now you can have an Affordable, move-in ready home in a great location and excellent price! This one literally has it all, including dual pane windows, a refreshed large kitchen with window, eat in area, two living spaces, a front and back covered porch. Full size bathroom, generous size bedroom and an enclosed bump out room that can serve as a 2nd bedroom, home office or hobby room! Behind that room is another flex space - endless ideas! Fenced back yard with a deck and a shed on carport side. The home has a clean pest

Key facts

• Two living spaces
• Fenced back yard
• Large kitchen

Tags

• LARGE KITCHEN
• TWO LIVING SPACES
• FRONT AND BACK COVERED PORCH
• ENCLOSED BUMP OUT ROOM
• FENCED BACK YARD
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community of approximately 400 units
• Financial info: Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; Land lease required

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220V in laundry; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Sahara make; Built in 1967
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Backyard; Irregular shaped lot; Storage / shed(s); Porch; Covered deck/porch; Porch awning

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Hood over range; Ice maker; Pantry cabinet; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central cooling; Ceiling fans; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Furnished; Pantry cabinet; Laminate countertops; Deck attached to living room; Covered porch/deck with porch steps; Porch awning; Storage area / shed
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry hookups; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.3% vs local median 3.0% in Rancho Cordova — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, commute C-, crime D.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 223 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $398 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,775 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.18%
• DSCR: 4.97
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $64,272
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 97 Wilderness Rd	0.09mi	2/1.0	760 (-8%)	1mo	$59,000	$78	82
18 Golden Inn Way	0.08mi	1/1.0 (-1)	828 (+0%)	10mo	$35,000	$42	82
19 Golden Inn Way	0.09mi	2/2.0	816 (-1%)	10mo	$120,000	$147	82
117 Floral Hills Way	0.02mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-3%)	11mo	$66,800	$84	80
134 Gumtree Dr	0.14mi	1/1.0 (-1)	850 (+3%)	9mo	$69,888	$82	76
62 Pineacre Ln	0.15mi	1/1.0 (-1)	832 (+1%)	14mo	$48,888	$59	74
318 Sunny Hills Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	720 (-13%)	1mo	$41,500	$58	74
33 Sunbeam Way	0.13mi	2/1.0	870 (+6%)	19mo	$50,000	$57	69
247 Rocky Hills Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0	720 (-13%)	9mo	$72,000	$100	69
249 Rocky Hills Ln	0.06mi	2/2.0	800 (-3%)	24mo	$69,500	$87	69
28 Golden Inn Way	0.07mi	2/1.0	700 (-15%)	8mo	$49,000	$70	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $62,742
• Equity at exit: $8,573

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.0%
• Equity multiple: 9.48×
• Total profit: $136,457
• Equity at exit: $4,972

Cash invested: $16,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95670

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$302
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $862/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $1,196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $503

Max offer price $57,500

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,375
• Closing costs: $1,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11260 Point East Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	615	$1,985	$3.23	1d	29	0.40mi
2330 Vehicle Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,225	$2.63	2d	1	0.42mi
2330 Vehicle Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$2,230	$2.63	20d	9	0.42mi
2437 Rashawn Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,900	$1.96	7d	1	0.44mi
11150 Trinity River Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1091	$1,850	$1.69	43d	2	0.45mi
2220 Cemo Cir Gold River, CA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1203	$2,499	$2.08	1d	7	0.46mi
11150 Trinity River Dr #79 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	941	$1,980	$2.10	23d	1	0.49mi
11070 Hirschfeld Way Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,880	$2.35	2d	4	0.52mi
10890 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,499	$1.62	23d	3	0.85mi
10870 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	3d	1	0.93mi
10922 Scotsman Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	17d	1	1.02mi
1990 Benita Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$2,300	$2.40	43d	1	1.04mi
10780 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	760	$1,515	$1.99	2d	7	1.08mi
2652 Los Nogales Way Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	43d	1	1.08mi
2657 McGregor Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,595	$1.58	43d	1	1.10mi
10680 Coloma Rd Rancho Cordova, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,889	$2.59	2d	11	1.31mi
2751 Don Juan Dr Apt 16 Rancho Cordova, CA	2.0	1.5	960	$1,875	$1.95	43d	1	1.45mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 35 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,210
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,221
• − Property taxes: −$862
• − Insurance: −$288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − Depreciation: −$1,673
• Taxable income: $14,293
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,430
• After-tax cash flow: $10,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 58,819
• Household income: $89,484
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2389.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 12% Asian 12% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Subsaharan African 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -263.38%
• Current HPI: 300.0788
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B