645 Old Fox Rd · Irvine, KY 40336

$90,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2021 ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 2200 square foot mobile / manufactured home has 3 bedrooms and 3.0 bathrooms. This home is located at 645 Old Fox Rd, Irvine, KY 40336.

Key facts

• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($920 rent vs $90k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#254 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Estill County (rural): math 19% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #146 of 165 in KY (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Estill County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.49%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-3,259
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $11,657
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40336

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $920 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $465/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $694

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-02
   historical
2. 2026-03-10
   price $105,000
3. 2026-03-05
   price $127,500
4. 2026-02-03
   listed $135,000 Active
5. 2026-01-27
   historical
6. 2026-01-12
   listed $145,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $465 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $774 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$309/yr (+$26/mo · 66.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$465
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$883
• − Management: −$883
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $695
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$167
• After-tax cash flow: $1,973/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Estill County
• NCES district ID: 2101760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $29,324
• Composite: 20.86/100
• National rank: #8498
• State rank: #146 of 165 in KY

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #12740

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,650

Population outlook (Estill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,588 people
• By 2030: 13,086 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 12,012 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 10,928 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 8,646 · -36.4%
• By 2100: 6,689 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Estill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.2) · D 17.7% · R 81.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -63.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.2 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+46.2 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.66%
• Current HPI: 219.2756
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-27.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $105,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $127,500 ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $135,000 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $145,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $465 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.