538 Creek Ct · Penn Estates, PA 18360

$85,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1994 $76/sqft · 14% above area Est $74k · 14% over $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is Under Contract and Considering Backup Offers Only at this Time. .. Really nice 50+ community in the Desirable Oak Run Village, Stroudsburg. Featuring 2 bedroom, 2 full baths, Nice size eat-in kitchen with lots of cabinet space, and skylights over dining area. Primary bedroom suite with his & her closets, Living room with option for freestanding gas or woodstove, Laundry room with storage area, Second bedroom also offers double closets, and a 14x12 sunroom. New roof, New HVAC, New Refrigerator, New Electrical Box, and New Hot Water Heater. Freshly painted ceilings, walls, and window sills. Paved parking area and nice size shed. ONLY $275 a month lot/community fee which covers water, sewer, road maintenance, community garbage and recycling drop off. All located only minute to Rt 80, Shopping, Dining, Health Care Facilities and so much more. .. Being sold AS IS

Key facts

• Double closets
• Sunroom
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• SKYLIGHTS OVER DINING AREA
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• LAUNDRY ROOM WITH STORAGE AREA
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• SUNROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $861 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.4% vs local median 4.0% in Penn Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#915 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Stroudsburg Area SD (suburban): math 33% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #315 of 539 in PA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 189 active listings in the ZIP; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $82,450 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 46.78%
• DSCR: 3.08
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,500
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 14.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $41,125
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $106,621
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18360

• Active inventory: 189
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $491/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $861

Break-even live

Break-even rent $774

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $909	-5% $885	+0% $861	+5% $837	+10% $813
Rent	-10% $714	-5% $788	+0% $861	+5% $935	+10% $1,009
Rate	-1.0pp $904	-0.5pp $883	base $861	+0.5pp $839	+1.0pp $817

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashgaselectric

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 888-char remark

   Show marketing remark (888 chars)

   Property is Under Contract and Considering Backup Offers Only at this Time. .. Really nice 50+ community in the Desirable Oak Run Village, Stroudsburg. Featuring 2 bedroom, 2 full baths, Nice size eat-in kitchen with lots of cabinet space, and skylights over dining area. Primary bedroom suite with his & her closets, Living room with option for freestanding gas or woodstove, Laundry room with storage area, Second bedroom also offers double closets, and a 14x12 sunroom. New roof, New HVAC, New Refrigerator, New Electrical Box, and New Hot Water Heater. Freshly painted ceilings, walls, and window sills. Paved parking area and nice size shed. ONLY $275 a month lot/community fee which covers water, sewer, road maintenance, community garbage and recycling drop off. All located only minute to Rt 80, Shopping, Dining, Health Care Facilities and so much more. .. Being sold AS IS

2. 2026-04-28
   status Active 888-char remark

   Show marketing remark (888 chars)

   Property is Under Contract and Considering Backup Offers Only at this Time. .. Really nice 50+ community in the Desirable Oak Run Village, Stroudsburg. Featuring 2 bedroom, 2 full baths, Nice size eat-in kitchen with lots of cabinet space, and skylights over dining area. Primary bedroom suite with his & her closets, Living room with option for freestanding gas or woodstove, Laundry room with storage area, Second bedroom also offers double closets, and a 14x12 sunroom. New roof, New HVAC, New Refrigerator, New Electrical Box, and New Hot Water Heater. Freshly painted ceilings, walls, and window sills. Paved parking area and nice size shed. ONLY $275 a month lot/community fee which covers water, sewer, road maintenance, community garbage and recycling drop off. All located only minute to Rt 80, Shopping, Dining, Health Care Facilities and so much more. .. Being sold AS IS

3. 2026-04-28
   status Pending 888-char remark

   Show marketing remark (888 chars)

   Property is Under Contract and Considering Backup Offers Only at this Time. .. Really nice 50+ community in the Desirable Oak Run Village, Stroudsburg. Featuring 2 bedroom, 2 full baths, Nice size eat-in kitchen with lots of cabinet space, and skylights over dining area. Primary bedroom suite with his & her closets, Living room with option for freestanding gas or woodstove, Laundry room with storage area, Second bedroom also offers double closets, and a 14x12 sunroom. New roof, New HVAC, New Refrigerator, New Electrical Box, and New Hot Water Heater. Freshly painted ceilings, walls, and window sills. Paved parking area and nice size shed. ONLY $275 a month lot/community fee which covers water, sewer, road maintenance, community garbage and recycling drop off. All located only minute to Rt 80, Shopping, Dining, Health Care Facilities and so much more. .. Being sold AS IS

4. 2026-04-09
   listed $85,000 Active 888-char remark

   Show marketing remark (888 chars)

   Property is Under Contract and Considering Backup Offers Only at this Time. .. Really nice 50+ community in the Desirable Oak Run Village, Stroudsburg. Featuring 2 bedroom, 2 full baths, Nice size eat-in kitchen with lots of cabinet space, and skylights over dining area. Primary bedroom suite with his & her closets, Living room with option for freestanding gas or woodstove, Laundry room with storage area, Second bedroom also offers double closets, and a 14x12 sunroom. New roof, New HVAC, New Refrigerator, New Electrical Box, and New Hot Water Heater. Freshly painted ceilings, walls, and window sills. Paved parking area and nice size shed. ONLY $275 a month lot/community fee which covers water, sewer, road maintenance, community garbage and recycling drop off. All located only minute to Rt 80, Shopping, Dining, Health Care Facilities and so much more. .. Being sold AS IS

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $491 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$35/mo · 86.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,372
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$491
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,790
• − Management: −$1,790
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $9,569
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,297
• After-tax cash flow: $8,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stroudsburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4222860
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $59,061
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #4747
• State rank: #315 of 539 in PA

Livability — Penn Estates

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #915
• US rank: #9917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 59,057 people
• Metro: East Stroudsburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,080
• Household income: $71,481
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1020.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,099 people
• By 2030: 161,412 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 154,616 · -5.8%
• By 2050: 146,710 · -10.6%
• By 2075: 140,830 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 138,472 · -15.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Polish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.1% · R 49.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.8 2020: D+6.4 2016: D+0.3 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.01%
• Current HPI: 152.4388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: East Stroudsburg, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — PMAR
• 2026-04-28 Pending — PMAR
• 2026-04-09 Listed $85,000 PMAR

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $491 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.