126 Abby Ln Unit ABB126 · Jacksonville, IL 62650

$12,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Manufactured · 159 Days on market

Built 2026 ↓ 31% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as community events, , and , your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 159 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $13k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($930 rent vs $13k).
• Recommended offer: $11k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 66.3% vs local median 5.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#187 in IL, #3,543 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D.
• Jacksonville SD 117 (town): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #407 of 620 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $89 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $387 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($11k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $11,352 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 66.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 214.43%
• DSCR: 10.54
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.81×
• Total profit: $39,031
• Equity at exit: $1,923

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.08×
• Total profit: $86,977
• Equity at exit: $1,115

Cash invested: $3,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62650

• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $930 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$68
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$16 /mo · $194/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $113

Max offer price $12,900

Occupancy floor 26%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $654	-5% $650	+0% $645	+5% $641	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $572	-5% $609	+0% $645	+5% $682	+10% $719
Rate	-1.0pp $652	-0.5pp $649	base $645	+0.5pp $642	+1.0pp $639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,225
• Closing costs: $387
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $12,900 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $12,900 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $12,900 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $12,900 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $12,900 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $12,900 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $12,900 Active 151 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $12,900 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $12,900 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $12,900 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $12,900 Active 145 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $12,900 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $12,900 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    price $12,900 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $12,400 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $12,400 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $12,400 Active 138 DOM
18. 2026-03-24
    price $12,400 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as community events, , and , your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

19. 2026-02-01
    price $17,500 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as community events, , and , your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

20. 2026-01-12
    listed $18,000 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    * THIS IS A RESALE LISTING * This welcoming, well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home is a perfect place to raise your family. For your convenience, we have onsite community management to assist you when you need it. With our family-friendly community amenities such as community events, , and , your family will be excited to live here. This home won't be on the market long, so call us today for more information or to schedule a tour. Deposits & Fees are subject to change.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$723
• − Property taxes: −$194
• − Insurance: −$64
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$893
• − Management: −$893
• − Depreciation: −$375
• Taxable income: $8,017
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,924
• After-tax cash flow: $5,821/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville SD 117
• NCES district ID: 1720280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,909
• Composite: 18.66/100
• National rank: #8888
• State rank: #407 of 620 in IL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #3543

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, IL
• City population: 24,318
• Population (ZIP): 24,318

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,874 people
• By 2030: 31,698 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,050 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 26,381 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 20,235 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 14,324 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.1% · R 65.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+15.4 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.33%
• Current HPI: 126.5712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-31.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $12,400 Zillow
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $17,500 Zillow
• 2026-01-12 Listed $18,000 Zillow