7438 18th St · Lubbock, TX 79416

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1953 0.39 ac lot $84/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious four-bedroom, two-bath home located just west of Lubbock, offering the perfect blend of country charm and convenient access to town. The garage has been thoughtfully converted into a large primary suite, providing a private retreat, though it could easily serve as a second living area if desired. Each of the additional bedrooms is generously sized and features either original wood flooring or durable vinyl plank. Renovated just a few years ago, the home is in excellent condition and move-in ready. With a current month-to-month lease in place, it presents a fantastic opportunity for immediate rental income or a comfortable residence for anyone needing extra space at an attractive price.

Key facts

• 0.39 acre lot
• Built 1953
• Listed 73 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $149,900 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$335,441) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $387 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Bend El (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,744 of 4,322 statewide, top 41%, 730 students, 74% FRL); Terra Vista Middle (math 37% / reading 44%, grade F, #637 of 1,662 statewide, top 39%, 891 students, 66% FRL); Frenship H S (math 44% / reading 65%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 3,247 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 466 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.06%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,441
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -55.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,044
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $25,202
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79416

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 466
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,140/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,300

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $472	-5% $429	+0% $387	+5% $344	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $245	-5% $316	+0% $387	+5% $458	+10% $528
Rate	-1.0pp $462	-0.5pp $425	base $387	+0.5pp $348	+1.0pp $308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7452 8th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,075	$1.20	15d	1	0.65mi
7105 14th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,950	$1.22	23d	1	0.70mi
7324 9th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,950	$1.10	23d	1	0.70mi
7216 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1732	$1,700	$0.98	45d	1	0.72mi
7415 5th St Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,450	$1.12	45d	1	0.81mi
7403 5th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,349	$1.03	45d	1	0.83mi
7410 5th St Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,400	$1.10	45d	1	0.85mi
6927 20th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,599	$0.99	23d	1	0.89mi
2911 Urbana Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,800	$1.24	23d	1	0.89mi
2612 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,775	$1.11	15d	1	0.92mi
2801 Trenton Ave Unit LO Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$1,799	$1.04	23d	1	0.95mi
1409 Quincy Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,800	$1.80	23d	1	0.99mi
2625 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,800	$1.16	45d	1	0.99mi
7541 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,500	$1.16	23d	1	1.04mi
7420 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	1.12mi
7413 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1247	$1,475	$1.18	23d	1	1.15mi
6813 7th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1452	$1,550	$1.07	23d	1	1.23mi
7222 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,935	$1.33	45d	1	1.30mi
3414 Tiffin Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,799	$1.16	15d	1	1.32mi
1003 Oshkosh Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1835	$2,000	$1.09	15d	1	1.34mi
3518 Turner Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,199	$1.52	45d	1	1.37mi
8601 10th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,575	$1.03	45d	1	1.41mi
6806 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	1.44mi
6806 4th St Unit D Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,550	$0.95	45d	1	1.44mi
2617 Garland Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,000	$1.17	23d	1	1.45mi
8522 11th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1530	$1,750	$1.14	15d	1	1.47mi
6724 4th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1640	$1,500	$0.91	45d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,900 Active 73 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $149,900 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Spacious four-bedroom, two-bath home located just west of Lubbock, offering the perfect blend of country charm and convenient access to town. The garage has been thoughtfully converted into a large primary suite, providing a private retreat, though it could easily serve as a second living area if desired. Each of the additional bedrooms is generously sized and features either original wood flooring or durable vinyl plank. Renovated just a few years ago, the home is in excellent condition and move-in ready. With a current month-to-month lease in place, it presents a fantastic opportunity for immediate rental income or a comfortable residence for anyone needing extra space at an attractive price.

18. 2026-04-09
    listed $154,500 Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Spacious four-bedroom, two-bath home located just west of Lubbock, offering the perfect blend of country charm and convenient access to town. The garage has been thoughtfully converted into a large primary suite, providing a private retreat, though it could easily serve as a second living area if desired. Each of the additional bedrooms is generously sized and features either original wood flooring or durable vinyl plank. Renovated just a few years ago, the home is in excellent condition and move-in ready. With a current month-to-month lease in place, it presents a fantastic opportunity for immediate rental income or a comfortable residence for anyone needing extra space at an attractive price.

19. 2024-10-05
    historical $1,200
20. 2024-09-17
    listed $1,200
21. 2022-07-25
    price $1,200
22. 2022-01-31
    soldstatus
23. 1996-10-01
    soldstatus
24. 1985-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,140 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$604/yr (+$50/mo · 28.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,474
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$2,140
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,391
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$574
• After-tax cash flow: $4,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,442
• Household income: $63,896
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2214.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.94%
• Current HPI: 227.7841
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12391.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $149,900 LARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $154,500 LARMLS
• 2024-10-05 Rental Removed $1,200 LARMLS
• 2024-09-17 Listed for Rent $1,200 LARMLS
• 2022-07-25 Price Changed $1,200 RENT.
• 2022-01-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,140 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.