1041 Sunset Cir W · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

$282,750

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 4,430 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2 bedroom/ 2 Bath Villas at Bolivar Home -Located on Hwy 87, across from the Golf Course-66 homes + amenities: Elevated Pool/Pool Deck, Sand Volleyball Court, Pickleball Court, 2-Story Entertainment Pavilion, Ocean Observatory Deck, Kids Playground, Grass Outdoor Game Area, Multiple Lounge Areas and a Prime Bolivar Peninsula location. Villas at Bolivar is slated to be the only community of it's type on the Texas Gulf Coast. This is 2 bed/2 bath floor plan (without loft), ALL with a covered front porch & vaulted ceilings in the living space. Vacation Rentals are allowed.

Key facts

• Pickleball court
• Kids playground
• Elevated pool

Tags

• ELEVATED POOL
• SAND VOLLEYBALL COURT
• PICKLEBALL COURT
• 2-STORY ENTERTAINMENT PAVILION
• OCEAN OBSERVATORY DECK
• KIDS PLAYGROUND

🏗️ New construction. The $282,750 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $309,387.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-413 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (16.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.0% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 881 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $221,826 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.71%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,387
• List price: $282,750
• Delta: -8.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1049 Sunset Cir E	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	17mo	$324,449	$296	58
1036 Sunset Cir E	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	18mo	$351,099	$320	56
1057 Sunset Cir W	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	21mo	$289,999	$264	56
1037 Sunset Cir E	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	21mo	$299,999	$273	56
1072 Sunset Cir E	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	21mo	$331,249	$302	53
1209 N Jacks Rd	0.94mi	2/1.5	1,020 (+8%)	0mo	$237,000	$232	50
1104 Chapmans Pt	1.11mi	2/1.0	990 (+5%)	10mo	$350,000	$354	45
1013 Highway 87	0.82mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (+7%)	7mo	$299,900	$298	41
979 S Selwyn Rd	1.07mi	2/2.0	1,055 (+12%)	9mo	$336,880	$319	38
959 S Jack Rd	0.90mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (+7%)	19mo	$350,000	$345	32
975 S Jack Rd	0.89mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+14%)	6mo	$369,900	$343	31
1069 N Sage Rd	1.00mi	2/2.0	1,112 (+18%)	13mo	$239,000	$215	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-76,357
• Equity at exit: $46,131

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-100,117
• Equity at exit: $26,750

Cash invested: $86,628 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 8 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 48.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $292,500 ($315/sqft)
• Median days on market: 185 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Active inventory: 881
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,622
• Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,147/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-413

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,740

Max offer price $236,516

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-237	-5% $-325	+0% $-413	+5% $-500	+10% $-588
Rent	-10% $-588	-5% $-500	+0% $-413	+5% $-325	+10% $-237
Rate	-1.0pp $-257	-0.5pp $-334	base $-413	+0.5pp $-493	+1.0pp $-574

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,347
• Closing costs: $9,282
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1166 N Jacks Rd Port Bolivar, TX	2.0	1.0	918	$2,050	$2.23	52d	1	0.93mi
1021 N Sage Crystal Beach, TX	1.0	1.0	576	$2,500	$4.34	2d	1	0.98mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Villas at Bolivar associationAssociation fee $68 per monthHOA covers common areas and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterAsphalt road access
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2024)Faces westHas a view
• Construction: Cement sidingWood sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2024Builder: Villas Bolivar
• Exterior features: BalconyCovered patioPorchPatioDeckViews

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorSecond bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barBalconyHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboSeparate showerTub/showerCeiling fansLiving/dining roomStorm windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $68/mo · $816/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $282,750 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $282,750 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $282,750 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $282,750 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $282,750 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-08-01
   days on marketlisting id $282,750 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-07-01
   days on market $282,750 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-30
   days on market $282,750 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-29
   days on market $282,750 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-28
    days on market $282,750 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-27
    days on market $282,750 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-26
    days on market $282,750 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-24
    days on market $282,750 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-22
    days on market $282,750 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-06-21
    days on market $282,750 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-06-18
    days on market $282,750 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-06-17
    days on market $282,750 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-06-16
    days on market $282,750 Active 49 DOM
19. 2026-06-15
    days on market $282,750 Active 48 DOM
20. 2026-06-13
    days on market $282,750 Active 46 DOM
21. 2026-06-09
    days on market $282,750 Active 42 DOM
22. 2026-06-08
    days on market $282,750 Active 41 DOM
23. 2026-06-07
    days on market $282,750 Active 40 DOM
24. 2026-06-04
    days on market $282,750 Active 37 DOM
25. 2026-06-03
    days on market $282,750 Active 36 DOM
26. 2026-06-02
    days on market $282,750 Active 35 DOM
27. 2026-06-01
    days on market $282,750 Active 34 DOM
28. 2026-05-31
    days on market $282,750 Active 33 DOM
29. 2026-04-28
    listed $282,750 Active 590-char remark
30. 2026-04-16
    historical
31. 2025-11-13
    listed $312,749 Active
32. 2025-11-13
    historical
33. 2025-05-26
    status Active
34. 2025-05-25
    historical
35. 2025-03-28
    status Active
36. 2025-03-18
    listed $307,000
37. 2025-03-18
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,147 · $346/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,174 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,028/yr (+$86/mo · 24.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,330
• − Property taxes: −$4,147
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$9,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,515
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,435/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a prime location and is move-in ready, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more visitors ↑
• Both Addition of smart home features — Improves convenience and could attract tech-savvy buyers ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and could attract more buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oppe El B TX #291/4,322 Nat'l #5,891/41,679 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Galveston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820280
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,162
• Composite: 30.22/100
• National rank: #6299
• State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #719
• US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
• County: Galveston · 390,640 people
• City population: 2,957
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,362
• Household income: $71,700
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
• Current HPI: 231.5074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Villas at Bolivar associationAssociation fee $68 per monthHOA covers common areas and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public waterAsphalt road access
• Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2024)Faces westHas a view
• Construction: Cement sidingWood sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2024Builder: Villas Bolivar
• Exterior features: BalconyCovered patioPorchPatioDeckViews

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherElectric cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorSecond bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barBalconyHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboSeparate showerTub/showerCeiling fansLiving/dining roomStorm windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-07-31 Listed $282,750 HARMLS
• 2026-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $282,750 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $312,749 HARMLS
• 2025-05-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-05-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-18 Listed $307,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+776.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,147 · +776.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.