Is 1041 Sunset Cir W in Bolivar Peninsula, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.4% cap rate and $-230/mo modeled cash flow at a $282,750 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 1041 Sunset Cir W?

The modeled cap rate is 5.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,448/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

D Composite 40.18

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +9.2/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.8/5.0
Schools +4.7/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
1% rule +2.9/10.0
Appreciation +2.7/10.0
DSCR +2.6/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0

$282,750

1041 Sunset Cir W · Bolivar Peninsula, TX 77650

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2024 Excellent condition 4,430 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Beautiful 2 bedroom/ 2 Bath Villas at Bolivar Home -Located on Hwy 87, across from the Golf Course-66 homes + amenities: Elevated Pool/Pool Deck, Sand Volleyball Court, Pickleball Court, 2-Story Entertainment Pavilion, Ocean Observatory Deck, Kids Playground, Grass Outdoor Game Area, Multiple Lounge Areas and a Prime Bolivar Peninsula location. Villas at Bolivar is slated to be the only community of it's type on the Texas Gulf Coast. This is 2 bed/2 bath floor plan (without loft), ALL with a covered front porch & vaulted ceilings in the living space. Vacation Rentals are allowed.

Key facts

Pickleball court
Kids playground
Elevated pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (5.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (13.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $245k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 2.1% in Bolivar Peninsula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#719 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Galveston ISD (town): math 33% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #514 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Oppe El (math 67% / reading 60%, grade B, #291 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 610 students, 63% FRL); Central Middle (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 879 students, 80% FRL); Ball H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,934 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools at 72% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: 1005 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 49d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $244,773 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.79% ✗
Cap rate: 5.40%
Cash-on-cash: -3.18%
DSCR: 0.86
GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $309,113
List price: $282,750
Delta: -8.53%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
872 O Neil Rd	1.05mi	2/2.0	960 (+2%)	0mo	$339,000	$353	62
1049 Sunset Cir E	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	18mo	$324,449	$296	57
1036 Sunset Cir E	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	20mo	$351,099	$320	55
1057 Sunset Cir W	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	23mo	$289,999	$264	54
1037 Sunset Cir E	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,097 (+16%)	22mo	$299,999	$273	54
1209 N Jacks Rd	0.94mi	2/1.5	1,020 (+8%)	2mo	$237,000	$232	48
1104 Chapmans Pt	1.11mi	2/1.0	990 (+5%)	12mo	$350,000	$354	44
1013 Highway 87	0.82mi	1/1.5 (-1)	1,008 (+7%)	8mo	$299,900	$298	40
979 S Selwyn Rd	1.07mi	2/2.0	1,055 (+12%)	10mo	$336,880	$319	37
959 S Jack Rd	0.90mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,014 (+7%)	21mo	$350,000	$345	30
975 S Jack Rd	0.89mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,080 (+14%)	8mo	$369,900	$343	29
1069 N Sage Rd	1.00mi	2/2.0	1,112 (+18%)	15mo	$239,000	$215	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -21.6%
Equity multiple: 0.25×
Total profit: $-64,663
Equity at exit: $46,090

10-year hold

IRR: -15.3%
Equity multiple: 0.13×
Total profit: $-74,925
Equity at exit: $26,726

Cash invested: $86,552 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 9 active · 1 under contract
Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $279,900 ($305/sqft)
Median days on market: 168 d
This list price: 56% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +7.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77650

Home prices YoY: -1.9%
Active inventory: 1005
Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,448 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,621
Tax from tax record: −$346 /mo · $4,147/yr
Insurance: −$129
HOA: −$68
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$514
Net cashflow: $-230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,738

Max offer price $268,542

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-142	+0% $-230	+5% $-317	+10% $-405
Rent	-10% $-423	-5% $-326	+0% $-230	+5% $-133	+10% $-36
Rate	-1.0pp $-74	-0.5pp $-151	base $-230	+0.5pp $-310	+1.0pp $-391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $77,278
Closing costs: $9,273
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1037 Sunset Cir Unit 1598138P Crystal Beach, TX	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,492	$2.27	4d	1	0.06mi
1166 N Jacks Rd Port Bolivar, TX	2.0	1.0	918	$2,050	$2.23	98d	1	0.93mi
1021 N Sage Crystal Beach, TX	1.0	1.0	576	$2,500	$4.34	49d	1	0.98mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Villas at Bolivar associationAssociation fee $68 per monthHOA covers common areas and recreation facilitiesCommunity pool

Exterior

Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterAsphalt road access
Home design: Residential propertyNew construction (2024)Faces westHas a view
Construction: Cement sidingWood sidingComposition roofBuilt in 2024Builder: Villas Bolivar
Exterior features: BalconyCovered patioPorchPatioDeckViews

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherElectric cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveRefrigerator
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floorSecond bedroom on the first floor
Flooring: Engineered hardwood
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)
Interior features: Breakfast barBalconyHigh ceilingsKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboSeparate showerTub/showerCeiling fansLiving/dining roomStorm windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $68/mo · $816/yr

Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $282,750 Active 55 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $282,750 Active 54 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $282,750 Active 53 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $282,750 Active 52 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $282,750 Active 51 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $282,750 Active 50 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $282,750 Active 49 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $282,750 Active 48 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $282,750 Active 47 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $282,750 Active 46 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $282,750 Active 45 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $282,750 Active 44 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $282,750 Active 43 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $282,750 Active 42 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $282,750 Active 36 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $282,750 Active 35 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $282,750 Active 33 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $282,750 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $282,750 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $282,750 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $282,750 Active 28 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $282,750 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $282,750 Active 26 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $282,750 Active 25 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $282,750 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $282,750 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $282,750 Active 22 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $282,750 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $282,750 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $282,750 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $282,750 Active 18 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $282,750 Active 17 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $282,750 Active 16 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $282,750 Active 15 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $282,750 Active 14 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $282,750 Active 13 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $282,750 Active 12 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $282,750 Active 11 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $282,750 Active 10 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $282,750 Active 9 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $282,750 Active 8 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $282,750 Active 6 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $282,750 Active 5 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $282,750 Active 4 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $282,750 Active 3 DOM
2026-08-01

days on marketlisting id $282,750 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $282,750 Active 64 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $282,750 Active 63 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $282,750 Active 62 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $282,750 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $4,147 · $346/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $5,174 · $431/mo
Expected delta: +$1,028/yr (+$86/mo · 24.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,373
− Mortgage interest: −$17,315
− Property taxes: −$4,147
− Insurance: −$1,546
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,350
− Management: −$2,350
− HOA: −$816
− Depreciation: −$8,992
Taxable loss: −$8,143

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,954
After-tax cash flow: $-802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a prime location and is move-in ready, making it an attractive investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and could attract more visitors ↑
Both Addition of smart home features — Improves convenience and could attract tech-savvy buyers ↑
Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and could attract more buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oppe El B TX #291/4,322 Nat'l #5,891/41,679 High Ball H S F TX #1,085/1,632 Nat'l #10,882/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Galveston ISD
NCES district ID: 4820280
Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income: $40,162
Composite: 30.22/100
National rank: #6299
State rank: #514 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Bolivar Peninsula

Score: 65/100
State rank: #719
US rank: #13437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Bolivar Peninsula, TX
County: Galveston · 390,640 people
City population: 2,957
Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
Population (ZIP): 2,362
Household income: $71,700
Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 390,640 people
By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 10% Black 8%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Iranian 3%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -4.52%
Current HPI: 231.5074
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

2026-07-31 Listed $282,750 HARMLS
2026-07-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-04-28 Listed $282,750 HARMLS
2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-11-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-11-13 Listed $312,749 HARMLS
2025-05-26 Relisted — HARMLS
2025-05-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-03-28 Relisted — HARMLS
2025-03-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2025-03-18 Listed $307,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+776.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,147 · +776.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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