12 Whites Ln · Aquebogue, NY 11931

$1,650,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1945 0.59 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Aquebogue Waterfront! Boaters Dream Location! Your own dock on a deepwater creek with access to Beautiful Bay inlet property with a 3 Bedroom home. Separate detached screened in room for entertaining or possible pool house. Features include Hardwood floors, fireplace, deck, granite kitchen countertops. Established gardens and outdoor shower! Reeves Creek dock to keep your boats, kayaks, paddleboards & jet skis. Zip right into the Bay!

Key facts

• Access to bay inlet
• Deck
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• DOCK ON A DEEPWATER CREEK
• ACCESS TO BAY INLET
• DETACHED SCREENED IN ROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FIREPLACE
• DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Garage with garage door opener; Total parking for 3 vehicles; 1 garage space
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: PSEG electric; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Built with block, cedar, and shingle siding; Block, raised foundation
• Exterior features: Awning(s); Boat slip; Dock; Back yard fencing; Cabana; Waterfront property; Views; Landscaped front and rear yards; Sprinklers front and rear; Private, secluded setting; Near golf course

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Exhaust fan; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; Central air conditioning; Wood-burning fireplace in living room
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Eat-in kitchen; Stone counters; Bay window(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Laundry in basement; Laundry in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.65M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($58k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.65M).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Aquebogue Elementary School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 474 students, 40% FRL); Riverhead Middle School (math 18% / reading 35%, grade F, #594 of 729 statewide, top 81%, 827 students, 57% FRL); Riverhead Senior High School (math 80% / reading 86%, grade A, #440 of 1,100 statewide, top 40%, 2,001 students, 52% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 41% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Riverhead Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $176k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $165k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $462k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$284k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,650,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.81%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $914,166
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
44 Meeting House Creek Rd	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,753 (-2%)	17mo	$899,000	$513	65
17 Leafy Way	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,618 (-9%)	20mo	$1,560,000	$964	43
71 Sunup Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-12%)	13mo	$749,000	$480	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $1,207,949
• Equity at exit: $1,486,451

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 8.17×
• Total profit: $3,314,021
• Equity at exit: $3,205,587

Cash invested: $462,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,653
• Tax from tax record: −$1,143 /mo · $13,717/yr
• Insurance: −$688
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $4,856

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,853

Max offer price $1,650,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $5,790	-5% $5,323	+0% $4,856	+5% $4,389	+10% $3,922
Rent	-10% $3,276	-5% $4,066	+0% $4,856	+5% $5,646	+10% $6,436
Rate	-1.0pp $5,687	-0.5pp $5,276	base $4,856	+0.5pp $4,429	+1.0pp $3,994

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $412,500
• Closing costs: $49,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
123 Broad Ave Riverhead, NY	5.0	3.0	2367	$20,000	$8.45	20d	1	1.48mi
97 Grant DR Aquebogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1900	$20,000	$10.53	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,650,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 442-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $1,650,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $13,717 · $1,143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $20,801 · $1,733/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,084/yr (+$590/mo · 51.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$92,426
• − Property taxes: −$13,717
• − Insurance: −$13,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$48,000
• Taxable income: $33,682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,084
• After-tax cash flow: $50,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $1,650,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $13,717 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.