955 Deer Trail Ln · Big Bear Lake, CA 92333

$985,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 144 Days on market

Built 1979 8,450 sqft lot $380/sqft · 37% above area Est $720k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Breathtaking views in every direction, plus approximately $140K in annual gross short-term rental revenue! Positioned high above the valley, this beautifully remodeled mountain home feels like it’s sitting on top of the world, offering sweeping panoramic vistas of Big Bear Lake, the valley below, forested ridgelines, surrounding mountains, ski slopes, and San Gorgonio. From sunrise to golden-hour sunsets, the expansive skyline creates an unforgettable backdrop ideal for stargazing and four-season mountain enjoyment. Offering approximately 2,592 square feet of living space, the home features 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, designed for comfort, privacy, and flexibility. The upper level serves as the main living space, showcasing vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen. A stone fireplace anchors the living area, while large windows and direct deck access keep the dramatic views front and center. The expansive upper deck is ideal for entertaining, relaxing, or simply taking in the scenery. A dedicated office nook and a private primary bedroom complete this level. The lower level is equally impressive, offering three additional bedrooms, multiple bathrooms, and outstanding recreation spaces. The spacious garage has functioned as a game room and entertainment hub, while a charming under-stair nook provides flexible bonus space. The layout allows for excellent separation between gathering areas and sleeping quarters. Outdoor living is a highlight, with multiple decks, a hot tub, fire pit, and grilling areas designed to enjoy all four seasons. Located on a quiet street approximately 15 minutes from Snow Summit and Big Bear Lake Village, with convenient access to dining, shopping, the airport, and main roadways, this home delivers an elevated Big Bear lifestyle! Designed to be enjoyed year-round, it offers space, scenery, and flexibility for unforgettable Big Bear experiences.

Key facts

• Expansive upper deck
• Panoramic vistas
• 8,450 sq ft lot

Tags

• REMODELED MOUNTAIN HOME
• PANORAMIC VISTAS
• EXPANSIVE UPPER DECK
• DEDICATED OFFICE NOOK
• PRIVATE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• OUTSTANDING RECREATION SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $985k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $758k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $621k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $621k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.4% in Big Bear Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#420 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+; Watch: crime C-, housing C-, health & safety D+.
• Bear Valley Unified (town): math 26% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #289 of 517 in CA (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($867k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $650k; list at $985k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $621,137 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.60%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $720,413
• List price: $985,000
• Delta: 36.73%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39998 North Shore Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,322 (-10%)	6mo	$715,000	$308	53
40029 N Shore Dr	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,342 (-10%)	20mo	$1,765,000	$754	47
39448 Cline Miller Pl	0.52mi	4/3.5	2,880 (+11%)	14mo	$750,000	$260	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-241,908
• Equity at exit: $146,867

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-317,403
• Equity at exit: $85,165

Cash invested: $275,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92333

• Home prices YoY: -7.9%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $6,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,165
• Tax from tax record: −$619 /mo · $7,426/yr
• Insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,304
• Net cashflow: $-1,288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,841

Max offer price $757,525

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $246,250
• Closing costs: $29,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1090 Bruin Trl Fawnskin, CA	4.0	3.5	2036	$4,000	$1.96	1d	1	0.43mi
39254 Cedar Dell Rd Fawnskin, CA	4.0	3.0	1876	$10,500	$5.60	1d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $985,000 Active 144 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $985,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $985,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $985,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $985,000 Active 139 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $985,000 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $985,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $985,000 Active 134 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $985,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $985,000 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $985,000 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $985,000 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $985,000 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $985,000 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-01-25
    listed $985,000 Active 1999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1999 chars)

    Breathtaking views in every direction, plus approximately $140K in annual gross short-term rental revenue! Positioned high above the valley, this beautifully remodeled mountain home feels like it’s sitting on top of the world, offering sweeping panoramic vistas of Big Bear Lake, the valley below, forested ridgelines, surrounding mountains, ski slopes, and San Gorgonio. From sunrise to golden-hour sunsets, the expansive skyline creates an unforgettable backdrop ideal for stargazing and four-season mountain enjoyment. Offering approximately 2,592 square feet of living space, the home features 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, designed for comfort, privacy, and flexibility. The upper level serves as the main living space, showcasing vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen. A stone fireplace anchors the living area, while large windows and direct deck access keep the dramatic views front and center. The expansive upper deck is ideal for entertaining, relaxing, or simply taking in the scenery. A dedicated office nook and a private primary bedroom complete this level. The lower level is equally impressive, offering three additional bedrooms, multiple bathrooms, and outstanding recreation spaces. The spacious garage has functioned as a game room and entertainment hub, while a charming under-stair nook provides flexible bonus space. The layout allows for excellent separation between gathering areas and sleeping quarters. Outdoor living is a highlight, with multiple decks, a hot tub, fire pit, and grilling areas designed to enjoy all four seasons. Located on a quiet street approximately 15 minutes from Snow Summit and Big Bear Lake Village, with convenient access to dining, shopping, the airport, and main roadways, this home delivers an elevated Big Bear lifestyle! Designed to be enjoyed year-round, it offers space, scenery, and flexibility for unforgettable Big Bear experiences.

16. 2026-01-22
    listed $985,000 Active 1999-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1999 chars)

    Breathtaking views in every direction, plus approximately $140K in annual gross short-term rental revenue! Positioned high above the valley, this beautifully remodeled mountain home feels like it’s sitting on top of the world, offering sweeping panoramic vistas of Big Bear Lake, the valley below, forested ridgelines, surrounding mountains, ski slopes, and San Gorgonio. From sunrise to golden-hour sunsets, the expansive skyline creates an unforgettable backdrop ideal for stargazing and four-season mountain enjoyment. Offering approximately 2,592 square feet of living space, the home features 4 bedrooms and 4 bathrooms, designed for comfort, privacy, and flexibility. The upper level serves as the main living space, showcasing vaulted ceilings, abundant natural light, and an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living room, dining area, and kitchen. A stone fireplace anchors the living area, while large windows and direct deck access keep the dramatic views front and center. The expansive upper deck is ideal for entertaining, relaxing, or simply taking in the scenery. A dedicated office nook and a private primary bedroom complete this level. The lower level is equally impressive, offering three additional bedrooms, multiple bathrooms, and outstanding recreation spaces. The spacious garage has functioned as a game room and entertainment hub, while a charming under-stair nook provides flexible bonus space. The layout allows for excellent separation between gathering areas and sleeping quarters. Outdoor living is a highlight, with multiple decks, a hot tub, fire pit, and grilling areas designed to enjoy all four seasons. Located on a quiet street approximately 15 minutes from Snow Summit and Big Bear Lake Village, with convenient access to dining, shopping, the airport, and main roadways, this home delivers an elevated Big Bear lifestyle! Designed to be enjoyed year-round, it offers space, scenery, and flexibility for unforgettable Big Bear experiences.

17. 2021-08-18
    soldstatus $650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,426 · $619/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,486 · $624/mo
• Expected delta: +$60/yr (+$5/mo · 0.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥83°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $74,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,175
• − Property taxes: −$7,426
• − Insurance: −$4,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,963
• − Management: −$5,963
• − Depreciation: −$28,655
• Taxable loss: −$33,570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,057
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0604230
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,222
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6588
• State rank: #289 of 517 in CA

Livability — Big Bear Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #420
• US rank: #14284

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety D+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,215
• Population (ZIP): 403

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 18% Italian 6% Scottish 6%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.30%
• Current HPI: 318.6629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+51.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-25 Listed $985,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $985,000 MRCAOR
• 2021-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,426 · -7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.