6825 SW 152nd St · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$289,999

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,736 sqft · Land · 164 Days on market

Built 2025 10,454 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Live the lifestyle you deserve in this elegant new construction home by Sky Homes, a trusted Central Florida builder renowned for quality and design. Perfectly situated in beautiful Ocala neighborhood, this 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence combines modern sophistication with everyday comfort. Step inside and experience the difference: soaring 10-foot ceilings, sleek all-tile flooring, and an open-concept layout that fills every corner with natural light. The gourmet kitchen the true heart of the home features 42-inch cabinetry, quartz countertops, and designer fixtures, creating the ideal space for family g

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Split-bedroom design
• 0.24 acre lot

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM DESIGN
• HIGH-QUALITY FINISHES
• 1-YEAR MECHANICAL WARRANTY
• 10-YEAR STRUCTURAL WARRANTY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.24 acres (85 x 125); Living area about 1,736 square feet

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces south; Completed condition; New construction
• Construction: Concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as new construction
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-14/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 43% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,575 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,017 students, 73% FRL); Horizon Academy At Marion Oaks (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #405 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,067 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1376 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 164 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,142 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 164 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-53,502
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-71,584
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1376
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $615/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $289,790

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $163	-5% $81	+0% $-1	+5% $-83	+10% $-513
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-86	+0% $-1	+5% $83	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $73	base $-1	+0.5pp $-76	+1.0pp $-153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 SW 152nd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1778	$1,850	$1.04	15d	1	0.09mi
6949 SW 152nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$2,000	$1.50	15d	1	0.12mi
15401 SW 65th Terrace Rd Dunnellon, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	23d	1	0.29mi
14983 SW 65th Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1557	$2,995	$1.92	15d	1	0.34mi
746 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	23d	1	0.39mi
585 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,165	$1.13	15d	1	0.62mi
15137 SW 61st Court Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,650	$1.20	23d	1	0.64mi
15284 SW 60th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,700	$1.16	15d	1	0.78mi
820 Marion Oaks Mnr Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1747	$1,995	$1.14	23d	1	0.94mi
14576 SW 75th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1936	$1,945	$1.00	15d	1	1.18mi
15889 SW 58th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,875	$1.06	15d	1	1.21mi
14257 SW 60th Ter #1 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1215	$2,400	$1.98	15d	1	1.27mi
5541 SW 153rd Street Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,700	$1.25	15d	1	1.28mi
15945 SW 57th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,675	$1.18	23d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Active
3. 2026-03-21
   status Pending
4. 2026-02-01
   price $289,999
5. 2026-01-16
   price $294,999
6. 2025-10-08
   listed $303,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $615 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,407 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,792/yr (+$149/mo · 291.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$615
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
• − Management: −$2,056
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$5,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $1,224/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $289,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $294,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Listed $303,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $615 · +86.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.