13521 Muny Pkwy · Elgin, TX 78621

$309,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,174 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 5,614 sqft lot $143/sqft · at area comps Est $320k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

THE ONLY PREMIUM BUILDER OFFERING THE LOWEST TAX RATE IN ELGIN. Discover the perfect blend of luxury and value in the Hemingway III at Creeks Crossing. This unique property is the only two-story in the community boasting a stately brick exterior and a breathtaking two-story family room. The 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom layout is designed for modern living, featuring a versatile upstairs game room and a private owner’s suite upgraded with a recessed ceramic tile shower, cultured marble seat, and dual vanities. Complete with a clean alley-load garage, water softener pre-plumbing, and a gas drop, this home offers unmatched curb appeal and functional elegance in a one-of-a-kind package.

Key facts

• Private owner suite
• Dual vanities
• Upstairs game room

Tags

• TWO-STORY FAMILY ROOM
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• PRIVATE OWNER SUITE
• RECESSED CERAMIC TILE SHOWER
• CULTURED MARBLE SEAT
• DUAL VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Creeks Crossing Community Association); Monthly association fee of $42; Association fee includes maintenance of grounds

Exterior

• Parking: Garage with 2 covered spaces; Total of 4 parking spaces; Garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Two-story new construction home; Builder: DRB Homes; Faces northwest; Slab foundation
• Construction: Masonry construction; Shingle roof; New construction (builder source)
• Exterior features: Patio; Wood fencing; Front yard; Back yard; See remarks (additional exterior details)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with island; Dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher; Free-standing range; Microwave; See remarks (additional kitchen details)
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Double vanity in primary/one bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Exhaust fan; Central air conditioning; Attic fan; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Main level primary bedroom; ENERGY STAR qualified vinyl windows; See remarks (additional interior details)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-273 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 807 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,300 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,532
• List price: $309,990
• Delta: -2.99%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $151,621
• Equity at exit: $279,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $460,553
• Equity at exit: $602,242

Cash invested: $86,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 807
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,031/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,489

Max offer price $261,755

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,498
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13501 Sierra Wind Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2066	$2,500	$1.21	20d	1	0.22mi
18436 Weatherby Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,000	$0.95	4d	1	0.37mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	24d	1	0.43mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,595	$1.38	4d	1	0.43mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	0.58mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	24d	1	0.61mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	17d	1	0.63mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	24d	1	0.64mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	2d	1	0.69mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	16d	1	0.76mi
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	43d	1	0.80mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	24d	1	0.82mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	16d	1	0.82mi
17812 Prairie Verbena Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2049	$2,199	$1.07	43d	1	0.95mi
101 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,769	$1.18	14d	1	0.96mi
102 Blanco Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	2450	$1,800	$0.73	43d	1	0.98mi
401 Bandara Woods Blvd Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1665	$1,875	$1.13	43d	1	1.09mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	24d	1	1.22mi
18505 Quiet Range Dr Unit 18505 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,785	$0.99	4d	1	1.22mi
18525 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,725	$0.96	17d	1	1.25mi
19017 Romano Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,198	$0.89	4d	1	1.29mi
18721 Quiet Range Dr Elgin, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,085	$1.18	1d	1	1.31mi
14101 Prospector Way Unit 14101 Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	24d	1	1.31mi
14101 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2198	$2,099	$0.95	43d	1	1.31mi
722 Lavaca Loop Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2075	$1,895	$0.91	17d	1	1.32mi
18500 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,825	$1.20	4d	1	1.35mi
14141 Prospector Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,650	$1.09	43d	1	1.36mi
19405 Bear Grass Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,760	$1.18	43d	1	1.37mi
18612 Allen Welch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,885	$1.05	4d	1	1.38mi
18224 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$1,700	$1.06	43d	1	1.40mi
14300 Boomtown Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,050	$1.14	24d	1	1.40mi
18300 Speculator Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1794	$1,995	$1.11	24d	1	1.40mi
11524 Rush Ln Elgin, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$2,300	$0.93	43d	1	1.45mi
23408 Tiny Moons Way Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	2000	$1,960	$0.98	20d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $309,990 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $309,990 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $309,990 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $309,990 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $309,990 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $309,990 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $309,990 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $309,990 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $309,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,990 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,990 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,990 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,990 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $324,990 Active 692-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,031 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,673 · $473/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,642/yr (+$304/mo · 179.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,364
• − Property taxes: −$2,031
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$8,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,128
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elgin, TX
• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $309,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $324,990 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,031 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.