21139 Grandin Wood Ct · Houston, TX 77338

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,166 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2006 4,151 sqft lot Est $170k · at est. $42/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS HOME IS A SHORT SALE, 3 BR 2 BATHS, TILE FLOOR THROUGH OUT HOME, ON A CUL-DE-SAC STREET, BUILT 2006,

Key facts

• 4,151 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Professionally managed association; Annual association fee of $500

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Private fenced yard; Back yard fencing; Concrete road frontage; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / Free-standing range; Gas oven; Built-in oven; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor); Bedroom (First floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric and Gas); Central air conditioning (Electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Walk-in pantry; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cypresswood El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 767 students, 88% FRL); Jones Middle (math 16% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 1,348 students, 86% FRL); Aldine H S (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 2,663 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,302 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.18%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,236
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21130 Grandin Wood Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+1%)	1mo	$209,000	$177	96
21115 Field House Ct	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+13%)	5mo	$185,000	$140	72
21247 Linden House Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+11%)	8mo	$199,900	$154	66
21234 Grand Linden Ct	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+12%)	9mo	$195,000	$150	65
6940 Fox Mesa Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-1%)	9mo	$199,900	$173	65
8026 Arrington Forest Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+7%)	3mo	$179,000	$143	56
20910 Brannon Hill Ln	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,228 (+5%)	7mo	$175,000	$143	53
6935 Foxbrook Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,254 (+8%)	4mo	$159,900	$128	53
7035 Foxfield Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+11%)	1mo	$149,900	$116	50
20914 Brannon Hill Ln	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+11%)	10mo	$188,000	$145	46
20810 Bonham Park Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+14%)	3mo	$209,000	$157	40
8118 Arrington Forest Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,332 (+14%)	8mo	$195,000	$146	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,278
• Equity at exit: $44,142

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-12,033
• Equity at exit: $47,991

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$352 /mo · $4,223/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,753

Max offer price $159,302

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10	-5% $-39	+0% $-89	+5% $-138	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-154	+0% $-89	+5% $-24	+10% $41
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-44	base $-89	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20211 Cottonglade Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,699	$1.26	1d	1	0.53mi
20211 Cottonglade Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,699	$1.26	45d	1	0.53mi
20126 Chipplegate Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,800	$1.34	45d	1	0.64mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Unit LANE12208 Humble, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$1,325	$1.41	1d	1	0.81mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Unit LANE14103 Humble, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$1,450	$1.54	45d	1	0.81mi
7010 Foxmar Ln Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1330	$1,750	$1.32	45d	1	0.83mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 424 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,245	$1.35	7d	1	0.86mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 19977 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,280	$1.39	0d	1	0.86mi
19920 Foxwood Forest Blvd Unit 422 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	921	$1,245	$1.35	9d	1	0.86mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Humble, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,438	$1.47	7d	1	0.91mi
7160 Foxbrick Ln Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,575	$1.81	1d	2	0.91mi
7150 Foxbrick Ln Unit LANE5201 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1011	$1,425	$1.41	1d	1	0.94mi
7150 Foxbrick Ln Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$1,625	$1.86	45d	4	0.95mi
20327 Bridgedale Ln Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1226	$1,736	$1.42	1d	1	1.01mi
19815 Kenswick Dr Humble, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,756	$1.88	0d	63	1.13mi
19806 Kenswick Dr Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,281	$1.37	45d	1	1.19mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Apt 422 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,375	$1.47	9d	1	1.25mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 19857 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,399	$1.50	12d	1	1.25mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 2148 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,410	$1.51	0d	1	1.25mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 424 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,375	$1.47	7d	1	1.25mi
19800 Kenswick Dr Unit 2112 Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	934	$1,359	$1.46	1d	1	1.25mi
8902 Snapping Turtle Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,729	$1.22	9d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Pending 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Pending 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Pending 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   status $175,000 Pending 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-05-22
   listed $175,000 Active
10. 2026-05-02
    listed $1,500
11. 2022-06-12
    price $1,500
12. 2013-01-30
    soldstatus
13. 2013-01-25
    soldstatus Sold 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    THIS HOME IS A SHORT SALE, 3 BR 2 BATHS, TILE FLOOR THROUGH OUT HOME, ON A CUL-DE-SAC STREET, BUILT 2006,

14. 2012-12-27
    status Pending 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    THIS HOME IS A SHORT SALE, 3 BR 2 BATHS, TILE FLOOR THROUGH OUT HOME, ON A CUL-DE-SAC STREET, BUILT 2006,

15. 2012-12-12
    status Option Pending 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    THIS HOME IS A SHORT SALE, 3 BR 2 BATHS, TILE FLOOR THROUGH OUT HOME, ON A CUL-DE-SAC STREET, BUILT 2006,

16. 2012-08-31
    listed $62,000 Active 105-char remark

    Show marketing remark (105 chars)

    THIS HOME IS A SHORT SALE, 3 BR 2 BATHS, TILE FLOOR THROUGH OUT HOME, ON A CUL-DE-SAC STREET, BUILT 2006,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,223 · $352/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,223 · $352/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$4,223
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,963
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$951
• After-tax cash flow: $-115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-97.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Rental Removed $1,500 HARMLS
• 2026-05-22 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed for Rent $1,500 HARMLS
• 2022-06-12 Price Changed $1,500 RENT.
• 2013-01-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-01-25 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-12-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2012-12-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2012-08-31 Listed $62,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,223 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.