3165 Jackson Ave · New Chapel Hill, TX 75705

$145,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1975 ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming Home with Great Potential – Don’t Miss This Opportunity!!! Great opportunity for first time home buyers looking to enter the market and build equity; or investors looking for a value-add property. This home offers a functional layout and the potential for updates to increase value. With the right improvements, this property could make an excellent rental, flip, or long-term hold. The home features comfortable and cozy living spaces, a practical kitchen, and a yard with room for outdoor enjoyment. With a little TLC and personal updates, this home has the potential to truly shine while allowing buyers to add their own style over time. Whether you're a first-time buyer, so

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1975
• Listed 93 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage with garage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence (detached); One story
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Storm door(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Microwave; Gas water heater; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,275 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime D-, amenities F.
• Chapel Hill ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #650 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jackson El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 417 students, 92% FRL); Chapel Hill J H (math 27% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 502 students, 77% FRL); Chapel Hill H S (math 21% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,063 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 64% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 29 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.32%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.98% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $18,321
• Equity at exit: $49,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.56×
• Total profit: $63,242
• Equity at exit: $65,469

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75705

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 29
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,400/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,187

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $330	-5% $289	+0% $248	+5% $207	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $129	-5% $188	+0% $248	+5% $307	+10% $366
Rate	-1.0pp $321	-0.5pp $284	base $248	+0.5pp $210	+1.0pp $172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3153 Roosevelt Dr Tyler, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	15d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 91 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $145,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $155,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $155,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $155,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 72 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 71 DOM
18. 2026-05-09
    status Active
19. 2026-05-03
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-25
    price $155,000
21. 2026-03-14
    listed $165,500 Active
22. 2018-10-01
    soldstatus
23. 2016-12-14
    soldstatus
24. 2007-01-04
    soldstatus
25. 2005-11-02
    soldstatus
26. 1987-10-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,400 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,654 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,254/yr (+$104/mo · 89.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,400
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$157
• After-tax cash flow: $2,813/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chapel Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813650
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,891
• Composite: 24.76/100
• National rank: #7603
• State rank: #650 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Chapel Hill

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1275
• US rank: #22160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing B- Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 16,355
• Population (ZIP): 1,471

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Scottish 6% Iranian 1% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Current HPI: 144.823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-05-03 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $155,000 GTAR
• 2026-03-14 Listed $165,500 GTAR
• 2018-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-12-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-01-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1987-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,400 · +11.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.