43 Bemis Ln · Jackson, TN 38301

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,162 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1956 0.30 ac lot Est $270k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $61 ($728/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $164k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,640/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($43k/yr) (locally 1701% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; list at $200k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,017 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.30%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,250
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
65 Bemis Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,929 (-11%)	15mo	$55,000	$29	62
105 Dixie Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,085 (-4%)	3mo	$259,700	$125	60
365 Chester Levee Rd	0.64mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,400 (+11%)	20mo	$299,900	$125	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,902
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-1,127
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38301

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,242/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $61

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,563

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $199,900 Active
19. 2002-04-26
    soldstatus $79,900
20. 1998-05-11
    soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,242 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,242
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$653
• After-tax cash flow: $1,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 4702580
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,015
• Composite: 11.74/100
• National rank: #9687
• State rank: #131 of 139 in TN

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #16488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, TN
• County: Madison County · 87,024 people
• City population: 87,024
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,536
• Household income: $43,227
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1701.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,952 people
• By 2030: 94,264 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 89,607 · -6.6%
• By 2050: 84,133 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 72,215 · -24.7%
• By 2100: 62,062 · -35.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 42% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.3% · R 58.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -21.6pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+12.9 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+8.9 2008: R+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.26%
• Current HPI: 162.2273
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.19%
• Metro: Jackson, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+189.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $199,900 CWTAR
• 2002-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records
• 1998-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,242 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.