4313 Johnston Ave · China Lake Acres, CA 93555

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1973 0.67 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN-READY WITH HUGE PERMITTED WORKSHOP/GARAGE! Property offers the perfect setup for hobbyists, mechanics, off-road enthusiasts, or anyone needing serious workspace and storage. Home has been cleaned, refreshed, and features numerous pre-marketing repairs. Spacious living area along with a well-kept kitchen featuring a gas stove, refrigerator, cabinets and countertops in excellent condition. The true standout is the impressive 40' x 26' three-bay workshop/garage complete with both 110v and 240v power, plus a ceiling-mounted gas heater-ideal for projects year-round. An additional detached PERMITTED garage provides even more vehicle or equipment storage, along with six smaller storage bui

Key facts

• Three-bay workshop
• Open desert access
• Huge workshop

Tags

• HUGE WORKSHOP
• THREE-BAY WORKSHOP
• DETACHED GARAGE
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• OPEN DESERT ACCESS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 4 spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Foam roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Corner lot; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range, Oven, Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Range, Oven, Refrigerator, Gas water heater; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $174 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#642 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D, schools F, amenities F.
• Sierra Sands Unified (town): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #294 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 328 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $125k implies a 658% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,868 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.98%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-8,495
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $9,625
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93555

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 328
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,189 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $685/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $174

Break-even live

Break-even rent $968

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $125,000 Active
17. 1989-01-05
    soldstatus $16,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $685 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $950 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥104°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$685
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,141
• − Management: −$1,141
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $34
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8
• After-tax cash flow: $2,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0636800
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,937
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6699
• State rank: #294 of 517 in CA

Livability — China Lake Acres

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #642
• US rank: #20115

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: China Lake Acres, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,845
• Household income: $86,700
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Black 4% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.17%
• Current HPI: 380.5208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.58%
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+657.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $125,000 SSMLS
• 1989-01-05 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $685 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.