3127 Harrison St · Paducah, KY 42001

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,148 sqft · SingleFamily · 90 Days on market

Built 1957 Fair condition 9,583 sqft lot $74/sqft · 42% below area Est $145k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three Bedroom two bath waiting for you to put your finishing touches inside. One new bath needs fixtures, kitchen needs cabinets . Finish out as you like Seller will not be completing any of the construction needed to complete. Water is not on and most of the brakers are off due to the construction.

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 4.0% in Paducah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#197 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Paducah Independent (town): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #122 of 165 in KY (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Clark Elementary School (math 34% / reading 48%, grade F, #201 of 676 statewide, top 30%, 617 students, 53% FRL); Paducah Middle School (math 19% / reading 36%, grade F, #168 of 217 statewide, top 78%, 652 students, 69% FRL); Paducah Tilghman High School (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 878 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: 319 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $85k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.72%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $145,474
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -41.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3127 Harrison St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,148 (0%)	2mo	$70,000	$61	99
3015 Madison St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-1%)	3mo	$127,000	$112	86
718 N 34th St	0.31mi	3/1.5	1,120 (-2%)	2mo	$124,000	$111	77
474 N 36th St	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+0%)	9mo	$112,000	$97	72
3121 Madison St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-11%)	3mo	$187,000	$183	72
315 N 31st St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,302 (+13%)	2mo	$150,000	$115	65
501 & 505 N 34th St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (-10%)	4mo	$175,000	$170	60
2948 Trimble St	0.24mi	3/1.0	980 (-15%)	6mo	$130,000	$133	55
2936 Clay	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	8mo	$75,000	$75	51
2909 Clark St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,018 (-11%)	4mo	$180,000	$177	48
2535 Laclede Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,300 (+13%)	4mo	$119,000	$92	45
2433 Madison St	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,076 (-6%)	12mo	$156,615	$146	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $8,573
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $36,147
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.9 mo (35%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $130,000 ($129/sqft)
• Median days on market: 39 d
• This list price: 8% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -1.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 42001

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Active inventory: 319
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $300/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $641

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $400	-5% $375	+0% $351	+5% $327	+10% $303
Rent	-10% $266	-5% $309	+0% $351	+5% $394	+10% $437
Rate	-1.0pp $394	-0.5pp $373	base $351	+0.5pp $329	+1.0pp $307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2991 Clay St Unit 06 Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	974	$715	$0.73	93d	1	0.19mi
2967 Harrison St Paducah, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$915	$1.26	93d	1	0.19mi
2741 Trimble St Unit 27195 Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$725	$0.85	93d	1	0.47mi
1900 Jefferson St Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	93d	1	1.18mi
1643 Monroe St Apt A Paducah, KY	2.0	1.0	1127	$1,250	$1.11	93d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $85,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    price $99,000 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Three Bedroom two bath waiting for you to put your finishing touches inside. One new bath needs fixtures, kitchen needs cabinets . Finish out as you like Seller will not be completing any of the construction needed to complete. Water is not on and most of the brakers are off due to the construction.

14. 2026-04-23
    price $115,000 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Three Bedroom two bath waiting for you to put your finishing touches inside. One new bath needs fixtures, kitchen needs cabinets . Finish out as you like Seller will not be completing any of the construction needed to complete. Water is not on and most of the brakers are off due to the construction.

15. 2026-03-17
    listed $125,000 Active 300-char remark

    Show marketing remark (300 chars)

    Three Bedroom two bath waiting for you to put your finishing touches inside. One new bath needs fixtures, kitchen needs cabinets . Finish out as you like Seller will not be completing any of the construction needed to complete. Water is not on and most of the brakers are off due to the construction.

16. 2006-12-04
    soldstatus $45,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $300 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $731 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$431/yr (+$36/mo · 143.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$300
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,983
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$716
• After-tax cash flow: $3,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $28,700–$51,660 screening

The home requires moderate renovations, including new kitchen cabinets, bathroom fixtures, and landscaping, to improve its resale and rental value.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,000–$8,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the roof.
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the windows.
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the electrical components.
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear on the exterior.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen cabinets — No visible cabinets.
• Major Bathroom fixtures — No visible fixtures.
• Major Landscaping — Sparse vegetation and overgrown areas.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen cabinets and appliances — Improves functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Clark Elementary School F KY #201/676 Nat'l #19,009/41,679 Middle Paducah Middle School F KY #168/217 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Paducah Tilghman High School F KY #97/254 Nat'l #10,416/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paducah Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104650
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $30,067
• Composite: 23.41/100
• National rank: #7896
• State rank: #122 of 165 in KY

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Paducah

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #197
• US rank: #9780

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paducah, KY
• County: McCracken County · 64,237 people
• City population: 30,856
• Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,856
• Household income: $71,365
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (McCracken County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,237 people
• By 2030: 63,468 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 61,221 · -4.7%
• By 2050: 58,432 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 52,668 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 44,517 · -30.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · McCracken

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.9) · D 31.9% · R 66.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -34.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.9 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.2 2012: R+32.5 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.23%
• Current HPI: 258.1706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paducah, KY-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+115.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $99,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $115,000 WKRMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $125,000 WKRMLS
• 2006-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-12.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $300 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.