103 Thompson Rd · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40508

$109,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,147 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1935 Est $165k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is gutted and in need of complete interior remodel. Home has newer low e glazed, argon gassed, double pane windows, and newer siding, soffits, and fascia.

Key facts

• Built 1935
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1935
• Construction: Original 1935 construction
• Exterior features: Located in the Melrose/Oakpark subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $617 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,597/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($29k/yr) (locally 2644% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $8k; list at $110k implies a 1274% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.07%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $165,168
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
124 Thompson Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,086 (-5%)	15mo	$162,500	$150	74
107 Clyde St	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,274 (+11%)	4mo	$150,000	$118	68
111 Thompson Rd	0.04mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,231 (+7%)	12mo	$261,000	$212	67
712 Florence Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,146 (-0%)	2mo	$114,000	$99	66
101 Thompson Rd	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (-15%)	10mo	$150,000	$154	61
1455 Townley Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	4mo	$251,000	$249	55
837 Whitney Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-5%)	14mo	$70,000	$64	49
1016 Jane St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,058 (-8%)	9mo	$123,600	$117	49
915 Whitney Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,030 (-10%)	9mo	$115,000	$112	47
301 Ash St	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,276 (+11%)	5mo	$153,000	$120	45
1443 N Forbes Rd	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,295 (+13%)	19mo	$249,000	$192	38
429 Ferguson St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+12%)	18mo	$185,000	$144	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $29,894
• Equity at exit: $16,386

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.73×
• Total profit: $114,875
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40508

• Rents YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $270/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $816

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $679	-5% $648	+0% $617	+5% $586	+10% $555
Rent	-10% $491	-5% $554	+0% $617	+5% $680	+10% $743
Rate	-1.0pp $673	-0.5pp $645	base $617	+0.5pp $589	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Clyde St Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1242	$1,450	$1.17	24d	1	0.12mi
301 Thompson Rd Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,450	$1.44	14d	1	0.17mi
208 Clyde St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	982	$1,100	$1.12	21d	1	0.23mi
405 Roosevelt Blvd Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	960	$1,495	$1.56	14d	1	0.73mi
723 Charles Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	992	$1,300	$1.31	14d	1	0.83mi
832 W High St Unit 1 Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	900	$1,400	$1.56	24d	1	0.89mi
330 Newtown Pike Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	976	$1,377	$1.41	24d	1	0.91mi
700 Red Mile Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	699	$1,295	$1.85	21d	1	0.98mi
149 Old Towne Walk Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	906	$1,964	$2.17	24d	1	0.99mi
345 Blackburn Ave Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	946	$1,925	$2.03	14d	1	1.02mi
1861 Dunkirk Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	975	$1,595	$1.64	14d	1	1.04mi
1603 Glover Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1336	$1,650	$1.24	24d	1	1.09mi
1885 Dunkirk Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1090	$1,600	$1.47	14d	1	1.12mi
444 Jefferson St Unit A Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1220	$1,950	$1.60	14d	1	1.22mi
355 S Broadway #305 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1436	$2,900	$2.02	24d	1	1.22mi
845 Red Mile Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,953	$2.38	14d	33	1.24mi
208 Linwood Dr Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	24d	1	1.26mi
1100 Horsemans Ln Unit HM37 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,500	$1.00	24d	1	1.41mi
1100 Horsemans Ln Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	24d	1	1.41mi
444 N Broadway Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,595	$1.38	24d	1	1.44mi
585 S Upper St #114 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	24d	1	1.44mi
261 S Limestone #303 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,995	$2.72	24d	1	1.45mi
275 S Limestone #135 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1142	$2,950	$2.58	14d	1	1.47mi
275 S Limestone #115 Lexington, KY	2.0	2.0	1010	$2,500	$2.48	24d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $109,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   remarks 159-char remark
9. 2026-06-09
   listed $119,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $270 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $945 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: +$676/yr (+$56/mo · 250.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$270
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $5,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,423
• After-tax cash flow: $5,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,756
• Household income: $29,440
• Rent vs Own: 70.5% rent · 29.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2644.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -251.04%
• Current HPI: 204.3994
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.83%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1398.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $119,900 FSBO.com
• 2011-10-20 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2015): $270 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.