4928 Hess Rd · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$54,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1949 0.29 ac lot Est $78k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home is full of potential and ready for your personal touch! Offering a peaceful country feel while still being conveniently located near city amenities, this property provides the best of both worlds. The home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, hardwood floors in the living room, and a spacious additional room that could serve as a large family room, recreation space, or possible fourth bedroom. Outside, you’ll find a large pole barn with room for two vehicles plus plenty of additional storage space. With a little TLC, this property could truly shine. Seller is selling the home as-is.

Key facts

• Large pole barn
• Hardwood floors
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LARGE POLE BARN
• SPACIOUS ADDITIONAL ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 78 x 163 (0.29 acres)

Interior

• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room; Crawl space basement; Nine total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($897 rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 11.7% in Buena Vista — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $54,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.97%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $77,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5050 Carnegie St	0.26mi	3/1.0	988 (+0%)	2mo	$97,000	$98	86
5032 Akron St	0.33mi	3/1.0	960 (-2%)	4mo	$80,000	$83	77
5000 Hess Rd	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	928 (-6%)	14mo	$97,900	$105	68
5025 Peterson St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-10%)	1mo	$29,500	$33	67
1726 Prospect St	0.27mi	3/1.0	864 (-12%)	6mo	$33,900	$39	62
1801 Ribble St	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+7%)	14mo	$83,900	$79	62
3285 Bertha Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+7%)	7mo	$63,500	$60	60
4749 Strathmoor St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-2%)	12mo	$90,000	$94	60
4636 N Gregory St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,064 (+8%)	5mo	$45,000	$42	55
7 Weymouth Ct	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,095 (+11%)	4mo	$69,900	$64	51
2881 Bedford St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,064 (+8%)	12mo	$92,500	$87	49
1890 Prospect St	0.40mi	3/1.0	864 (-12%)	14mo	$57,000	$66	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $14,725
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $43,204
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $897 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$27 /mo · $323/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $427

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 Gemini St Unit GE2800 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$920	$0.96	44d	1	0.83mi
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	1.01mi
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	44d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $54,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $54,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $54,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   remarks 604-char remark
6. 2026-06-03
   listed $54,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $323 · $27/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $584 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$261/yr (+$22/mo · 81.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,765
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$323
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$861
• − Management: −$861
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $3,773
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$906
• After-tax cash flow: $3,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2606780
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,403
• Composite: 10.13/100
• National rank: #9800
• State rank: #513 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $54,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-02 Listed $54,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $323 · -68.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.