715 Caribou Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1989 6,996 sqft lot Est $257k · 14% under $90/mo HOA · 5% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Beautiful home located in the Poinciana Area. The interior offer a spacious living and dining area. The large master bedroom includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Conveniently located close to Shopping, Poinciana Medical Center.

Key facts

• Separate dining room
• Abundant cabinetry
• Spacious living room

Tags

• FRESHLY PAINTED INTERIORS
• NEWLY STAINED DRIVEWAY
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• GRANITE MARBLE COUNTERTOPS
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage approximately 0.16 (0 to less than 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA $90 (includes cable TV); Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Association: Association of Poinciana Villages

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (24 x 24)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One-story; Southwest facing
• Construction: Stucco, vinyl siding, and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split-bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (7.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (11.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Palmetto Elementary School (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,962 of 2,144 statewide, top 92%, 513 students, 52% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 19% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.85%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $256,732
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
811 Albi Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-1%)	4mo	$239,900	$164	74
803 Marquis Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-1%)	12mo	$320,000	$218	65
812 Adour Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-3%)	10mo	$298,920	$207	63
611 Jura Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-3%)	10mo	$290,000	$201	58
845 Marquis Ct	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,623 (+9%)	6mo	$280,000	$173	55
887 Adour Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,670 (+12%)	2mo	$255,000	$153	50
902 Cannes Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,640 (+10%)	1mo	$275,000	$168	47
839 Jarnac Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,589 (+7%)	13mo	$259,000	$163	46
849 Jarnac Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-10%)	12mo	$260,000	$195	45
831 Massy Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (+11%)	6mo	$307,000	$186	38
952 Gascony Ct	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,666 (+12%)	6mo	$274,888	$165	37
893 Jarnac Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (+9%)	14mo	$265,500	$164	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-30,784
• Equity at exit: $48,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-35,125
• Equity at exit: $46,331

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1155
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$291 /mo · $3,489/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,058

Max offer price $203,107

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $29	-5% $-33	+0% $-95	+5% $-157	+10% $-220
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-172	+0% $-95	+5% $-19	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-39	base $-95	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
714 Caribou Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,975	$1.29	25d	1	0.04mi
658 Caribou Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	5d	1	0.16mi
601 Fisher Ct Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,525	$1.22	25d	1	0.22mi
829 Blanc Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,700	$1.11	25d	1	0.24mi
828 Cabaret Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,850	$1.16	19d	1	0.25mi
613 Antelope Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,300	$1.52	4d	1	0.27mi
659 Gazelle Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1495	$1,875	$1.25	25d	1	0.35mi
865 Adour Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,750	$1.16	23d	1	0.38mi
853 Blanc Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,795	$1.42	9d	1	0.39mi
857 Blanc Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,800	$1.01	9d	1	0.41mi
657 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$2,020	$1.62	4d	1	0.48mi
657 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$1,870	$1.50	5d	1	0.48mi
819 Jarnac Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1711	$1,750	$1.02	25d	1	0.51mi
653 Koala Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1246	$2,000	$1.61	16d	1	0.51mi
609 Tamarin Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,725	$1.38	16d	1	0.55mi
319 Baccarat Ct Unit A Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,375	$1.26	25d	1	0.57mi
619 Reindeer Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1714	$1,950	$1.14	25d	1	0.61mi
870 Jarnac Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1356	$1,695	$1.25	0d	1	0.62mi
873 Jarnac Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1636	$1,654	$1.01	0d	1	0.64mi
827 Massy Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,639	$1.11	23d	1	0.67mi
796 Squirrel Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,675	$1.01	25d	1	0.68mi
796 Squirrel Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,675	$1.01	23d	1	0.68mi
927 Cannes Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,604	$1.00	9d	1	0.68mi
925 Albertville Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1800	$2,139	$1.19	0d	1	0.70mi
783 Squirrel Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	25d	1	0.74mi
603 Muskrat Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1496	$2,050	$1.37	5d	1	0.74mi
662 Yak Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,675	$1.05	25d	1	0.74mi
774 Squirrel Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	25d	1	0.75mi
610 Muskrat Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$1,895	$1.09	23d	1	0.75mi
780 Platypus Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,695	$1.26	25d	1	0.76mi
641 Yak Ct Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	25d	1	0.79mi
810 Ognon Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1730	$1,799	$1.04	5d	1	0.79mi
309 Clermont Dr Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	25d	1	0.81mi
767 Platypus Ct Unit 767 Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,650	$1.42	25d	1	0.82mi
473 Martigues Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1664	$1,760	$1.06	19d	1	0.83mi
721 Bittern Ln Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,750	$1.30	25d	1	0.83mi
634 Kangaroo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,990	$1.20	25d	1	0.86mi
736 Bittern Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,775	$1.48	25d	1	0.86mi
485 Martigues Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1535	$1,900	$1.24	25d	1	0.89mi
639 Bittern Ct Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,730	$0.94	21d	1	0.91mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Active
2. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-19
   status Active
4. 2026-03-12
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-10
   status Active
6. 2026-03-03
   status Pending
7. 2026-02-25
   price $219,900
8. 2026-02-25
   price $220,000
9. 2026-02-25
   status Active
10. 2026-02-15
    status Pending
11. 2026-02-10
    status Active
12. 2026-02-09
    status Pending
13. 2025-12-30
    status Active
14. 2025-12-30
    price $215,000
15. 2025-12-19
    status Pending
16. 2025-11-06
    listed $239,900 Active
17. 2019-09-20
    soldstatus $165,000 Sold 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Beautiful home located in the Poinciana Area. The interior offer a spacious living and dining area. The large master bedroom includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Conveniently located close to Shopping, Poinciana Medical Center.

18. 2019-09-13
    soldstatus $165,000
19. 2019-08-12
    status Pending 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Beautiful home located in the Poinciana Area. The interior offer a spacious living and dining area. The large master bedroom includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Conveniently located close to Shopping, Poinciana Medical Center.

20. 2019-07-10
    listed $165,000 Active 259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (259 chars)

    3 Bedrooms, 2 Baths, Beautiful home located in the Poinciana Area. The interior offer a spacious living and dining area. The large master bedroom includes a private bathroom and walk-in closet. Conveniently located close to Shopping, Poinciana Medical Center.

21. 2007-12-15
    listed $170,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,489 · $291/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,489 · $291/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,489
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$4,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,165
• After-tax cash flow: $24/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+29.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $219,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $220,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-30 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listed $239,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-20 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-13 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2019-08-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-10 Listed $165,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-15 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,489 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.