1509 Cherry St · Aberdeen, WA 98520

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1949 5,925 sqft lot $158/sqft · 15% below area Est $236k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks with this 3 bedroom, 1 bath home offering 1,262 sq ft of potential. With a flexible layout and a small finished attic space, there’s room to grow and make it your own. The living room features a cozy pellet stove, perfect for staying warm on those cooler days. Outside, the fully fenced yard provides privacy, while the detached garage adds convenience and extra storage. Enjoy easy-to-maintain landscaping and a location close to shopping, dining, everyday amenities, and a park with a splash park right next door. This home also features an updated electrical panel for added peace of mind. This home could use a little love, but with a fresh coat of paint and your person

Key facts

• Utility room
• Finished attic space
• Pellet stove

Tags

• UTILITY ROOM
• FINISHED ATTIC SPACE
• PELLET STOVE
• FULLY FENCED YARD
• DETACHED GARAGE
• EASY TO MAINTAIN LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: RS; Lot features: alley, paved, sidewalk; Lot number: 6 & 7
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Community features: park, playground

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 covered space); Driveway; Off-street parking
• Security: Fully fenced
• Utilities: Public water (City of Aberdeen); Sewer connected (City of Aberdeen); Electric service (Grays Harbor PUD); Energy sources: Electric and pellet
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Has view; Built on lot
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood exterior; Deck; Fully fenced; Garden space; Cable TV available

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Carpet; See remarks
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level) with tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Stove / free standing (pellet); No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dining room; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-207 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (18.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $193k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $164k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.1% in Aberdeen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#73 in WA, #1,320 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-, employment F.
• Aberdeen School District (town): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #222 of 291 in WA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcdermoth Elementary (287 students, 71% FRL); Miller Junior High (718 students, 68% FRL); J M Weatherwax High School (916 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 266 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $200k implies a 281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,505 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $235,548
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -15.09%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
351 N Jeffries St	0.29mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,320 (+5%)	1mo	$157,000	$119	73
701 Simpson Ave	0.23mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,314 (+4%)	6mo	$150,000	$114	72
2118 Aberdeen Ave	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,280 (+1%)	3mo	$210,000	$164	70
909 W Market St	0.55mi	3/1.5	1,269 (+1%)	3mo	$235,000	$185	69
1613 Cherry St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,380 (+9%)	5mo	$310,000	$225	69
504 W 4th St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (-6%)	6mo	$242,500	$205	64
611 Conger St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+15%)	5mo	$275,000	$190	56
812 Duffy St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-14%)	7mo	$150,000	$137	53
1715 W 1st St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,083 (-14%)	0mo	$245,000	$226	52
316 W 1st St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,352 (+7%)	8mo	$111,000	$82	50
2112 Becker St	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-14%)	6mo	$219,000	$201	49
2300 W 2nd St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,136 (-10%)	5mo	$250,000	$220	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-42,669
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-41,914
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98520

• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 266
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,928 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,057/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$405
• Net cashflow: $-207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,190

Max offer price $163,505

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-150	+0% $-207	+5% $-263	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-283	+0% $-207	+5% $-130	+10% $-54
Rate	-1.0pp $-106	-0.5pp $-156	base $-207	+0.5pp $-258	+1.0pp $-311

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1619 W 6th St Aberdeen, WA	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,295	$1.31	45d	1	0.16mi
109 S Park St Apt 2 Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	45d	1	0.57mi
3033 Sumner Ave Hoquiam, WA	3.0	1.0	1128	$1,695	$1.50	45d	1	0.97mi
908 E 1st St Aberdeen, WA	3.0	1.0	1608	$2,100	$1.31	45d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $200,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $200,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $200,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $200,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $200,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-05-18
    price $200,000
11. 2026-04-23
    listed $205,000 Active
12. 1999-09-29
    soldstatus $52,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,057 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,057 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥77°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,142
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,057
• − Insurance: −$6,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,851
• − Management: −$1,851
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$5,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,382
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aberdeen School District
• NCES district ID: 5300030
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,896
• Composite: 36.13/100
• National rank: #9477
• State rank: #222 of 291 in WA

Livability — Aberdeen

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #1320

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aberdeen, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 24,888
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 24,888
• Household income: $58,153
• Rent vs Own: 35.4% rent · 64.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 635.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -138.75%
• Current HPI: 207.7393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.35%
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+281.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $200,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $205,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,057 · +34.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.