2116 Cedar Crest Dr · Abilene, TX
Flood risk 3/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.12%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $1,222 – $2,270
Heat risk 7/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 12.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +27.5/30.0
- DSCR +9.6/10.0
- 1% rule +7.7/10.0
- Rent growth +5.0/5.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Schools +2.8/10.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- ARV discount +0.0/15.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$240,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Investor Opportunity near Hendricks and ACU. 4 bedroom 2 bath with a large eat-in kitchen and a den. Enclosed patio large backyard. Central Heat and Air.
Key facts
- 0.32 acre lot
- Built 1953
- Listed 28 days
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $706 ($8k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
- Recommended offer: $236k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 6.8% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
- Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+43.4%/yr); 195 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,045/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1240% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 5 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.27% ✓
- Cap rate
- 9.82%
- Cash-on-cash
- 12.61%
- DSCR
- 1.56
- GRM
- 6.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $200,469
- List price
- $240,000
- Delta
- 19.72%
- Verdict
- OVERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2116 Cedar Crest Dr | 0.00mi | 4/2.0 | 1,901 (0%) | 0mo | $240,000 | $126 | 100 |
| 541 E North 23rd St | 0.16mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,892 (-0%) | 2mo | $239,900 | $127 | 86 |
| 2469 Campus Ct | 0.50mi | 4/2.0 | 1,969 (+4%) | 2mo | $240,000 | $122 | 69 |
| 2417 Campus Ct | 0.47mi | 4/2.0 | 1,854 (-2%) | 11mo | $229,000 | $124 | 65 |
| 2565 Madison Ave | 0.51mi | 4/2.5 | 1,939 (+2%) | 10mo | $239,500 | $124 | 63 |
| 2681 Garfield Ave | 0.71mi | 4/2.0 | 1,864 (-2%) | 1mo | $235,000 | $126 | 63 |
| 2489 Campus Ct | 0.50mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,035 (+7%) | 11mo | $254,900 | $125 | 51 |
| 633 E North 18th St | 0.38mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,679 (-12%) | 11mo | $245,000 | $146 | 49 |
| 2633 Garfield Ave | 0.63mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 1,759 (-8%) | 14mo | $229,000 | $130 | 42 |
| 2425 Campus Ct | 0.47mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,145 (+13%) | 14mo | $199,900 | $93 | 40 |
| 2572 Madison Ave | 0.51mi | 4/3.0 | 2,150 (+13%) | 18mo | $263,000 | $122 | 36 |
| 2534 John C Stevens St | 0.58mi | 3/2.0 (-1) | 2,142 (+13%) | 15mo | $365,000 | $170 | 34 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 8.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.33×
- Total profit
- $22,263
- Equity at exit
- $35,785
- IRR
- 21.2%
- Equity multiple
- 3.24×
- Total profit
- $150,846
- Equity at exit
- $20,751
Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Texas
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 79601
- Home prices YoY
- -22.8%
- Rents YoY
- 43.4%
- Active inventory
- 195
- Price-to-rent
- 6.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,045 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,259
- Tax from tax record
- −$340 /mo · $4,085/yr
- Insurance
- −$100
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$639
- Net cashflow
- $706
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $842 | -5% $774 | +0% $706 | +5% $638 | +10% $571 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $466 | -5% $586 | +0% $706 | +5% $827 | +10% $947 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $827 | -0.5pp $767 | base $706 | +0.5pp $644 | +1.0pp $581 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $60,000
- Closing costs
- $7,200
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 6 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2609 Madison Ave Abilene, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1788 | $4,000 | $2.24 | 14d | 1 | 0.57mi |
| 873 Cloverleaf Ln Abilene, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1541 | $2,995 | $1.94 | 14d | 1 | 0.66mi |
| 702 N 13th St Abilene, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1334 | $2,200 | $1.65 | 14d | 1 | 0.83mi |
| 758 E North 10th St Abilene, TX | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2366 | $2,300 | $0.97 | 44d | 1 | 0.92mi |
| 825 Milford St Abilene, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 2068 | $2,895 | $1.40 | 44d | 1 | 1.30mi |
| 1638 Merchant St Abilene, TX | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1328 | $2,895 | $2.18 | 14d | 1 | 1.44mi |
Listing history 17 events
-
2026-05-14historical Active Option Contract 153-char remark
Show marketing remark (153 chars)
Investor Opportunity near Hendricks and ACU. 4 bedroom 2 bath with a large eat-in kitchen and a den. Enclosed patio large backyard. Central Heat and Air.
-
2026-05-01status Active 153-char remark
Show marketing remark (153 chars)
Investor Opportunity near Hendricks and ACU. 4 bedroom 2 bath with a large eat-in kitchen and a den. Enclosed patio large backyard. Central Heat and Air.
-
2026-04-27historical Active Option Contract 153-char remark
Show marketing remark (153 chars)
Investor Opportunity near Hendricks and ACU. 4 bedroom 2 bath with a large eat-in kitchen and a den. Enclosed patio large backyard. Central Heat and Air.
-
2026-04-22status Active 153-char remark
Show marketing remark (153 chars)
Investor Opportunity near Hendricks and ACU. 4 bedroom 2 bath with a large eat-in kitchen and a den. Enclosed patio large backyard. Central Heat and Air.
-
2026-04-11$240,000 Active 153-char remark
Show marketing remark (153 chars)
Investor Opportunity near Hendricks and ACU. 4 bedroom 2 bath with a large eat-in kitchen and a den. Enclosed patio large backyard. Central Heat and Air.
-
2018-04-12soldstatus
-
2018-04-11soldstatus Sold 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
-
2018-03-30status Pending 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
-
2018-03-30status Active 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
-
2018-03-26status Pending 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
-
2018-03-13historical Active Option Contract 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
-
2018-03-10price $119,900 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
-
2018-02-13price $124,900 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
-
2018-01-25price $134,900 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
-
2018-01-11$144,900 Active 418-char remark
Show marketing remark (418 chars)
Investor Opportunity! 4 bedroom 2 bath located only minutes from ACU. Large eat-in kitchen. All appliances stay. Range is gas but has electric hookup. Central Heat and Air. You will also find a den that could have multiple uses. enclosed porch. Large living area and formal dining. Lots of Sq Ft. Less than $65 per sq ft. Near HSU, Hendricks, Texas Tech, Restaurants and Shopping. Will Hair Park backs up to the house.
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2006-09-27soldstatus
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1994-08-08soldstatus
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $4,085 · $340/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $4,392 · $366/mo
- Expected delta
- +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 7.5%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $36,538
- − Mortgage interest
- −$13,444
- − Property taxes
- −$4,085
- − Insurance
- −$1,200
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,923
- − Management
- −$2,923
- − Depreciation
- −$6,982
- Taxable income
- $4,981
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,196
- After-tax cash flow
- $7,281/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Abilene ISD
- NCES district ID
- 4807440
- Math proficiency
- 32% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 34% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $39,782
- Composite
- 27.71/100
- National rank
- #6909
- State rank
- #575 of 826 in TX
Livability — Abilene
- Score
- 75/100
- State rank
- #142
- US rank
- #4037
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Abilene, TX
- County
- Taylor County · 136,672 people
- City population
- 136,672
- Metro
- Abilene, TX
- Population (ZIP)
- 28,050
- Household income
- $53,631
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 1240.0
Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 145,270 people
- By 2030
- 150,050 · +3.3%
- By 2040
- 159,417 · +9.7%
- By 2050
- 168,883 · +16.3%
- By 2075
- 194,436 · +33.8%
- By 2100
- 203,163 · +39.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 55% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 21%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 7% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 81% English-only · Spanish 15% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Vietnamese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Taylor
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -63.17%
- Current HPI
- 214.4372
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 43.38%
- Metro
- Abilene, TX
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.95%
- F500 in state
- 110
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 16 | $1,198B |
|
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| Technology | 5 | $198B |
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| Engineering / Construction | 4 | $72B |
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| Energy Services | 3 | $60B |
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| Utilities | 3 | $41B |
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| Healthcare | 2 | $330B |
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Price history
+65.6% since first listed17 events — show timeline
- 2026-05-14 Contingent — NTREIS
- 2026-05-01 Relisted — NTREIS
- 2026-04-27 Contingent — NTREIS
- 2026-04-22 Relisted — NTREIS
- 2026-04-11 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
- 2018-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 2018-04-11 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
- 2018-03-30 Pending — NTREIS
- 2018-03-30 Relisted — NTREIS
- 2018-03-26 Pending — NTREIS
- 2018-03-13 Contingent — NTREIS
- 2018-03-10 Price Changed $119,900 NTREIS
- 2018-02-13 Price Changed $124,900 NTREIS
- 2018-01-25 Price Changed $134,900 NTREIS
- 2018-01-11 Listed $144,900 NTREIS
- 2006-09-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
- 1994-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
Property tax history
+7.1%/yrLatest (2025): $4,085 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…