13 Hill Ln · Coldspring, TX 77331

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2006 Good condition 7,840 sqft lot Est $161k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a completely updated 3 bedroom, 1 bath home. New Roof, New Flooring, New Cabinets, New Fixtures & Exterior/Interior Paint. Nice home at a great price point. ..

Key facts

• New flooring
• New cabinets
• New fixtures

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW FIXTURES
• EXTERIOR INTERIOR PAINT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2006; Cement siding; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision setting; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor (each about 10 x 12)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric oven; Electric range; Three total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $135k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.0% in Coldspring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,357 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 364 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.31%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $161,280
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1244 State Highway 150	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+11%)	17mo	$179,900	$144	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $4,856
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $38,722
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77331

• Active inventory: 364
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,712 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$359
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $513	-5% $466	+0% $419	+5% $373	+10% $326
Rent	-10% $284	-5% $352	+0% $419	+5% $487	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $487	-0.5pp $454	base $419	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $349

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $135,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-05-21
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,541
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,643
• − Management: −$1,643
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $3,065
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$736
• After-tax cash flow: $4,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This completely updated 3-bedroom, 1-bath home features new cabinets, countertops, appliances, siding, paint, flooring, and roof. The property is in good condition with a good curb appeal and landscaping, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances both resale and rental value.
• Both Add a small patio or outdoor seating area — Improves outdoor living space and adds value for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Add a small patio or outdoor seating area — Improves outdoor living space and adds value for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD
• NCES district ID: 4814520
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,916
• Composite: 20.07/100
• National rank: #8653
• State rank: #732 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coldspring

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1357
• US rank: #23364

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,348

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -146.98%
• Current HPI: 199.0493
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $135,000 HARMLS