424 Luna Bella Ln Unit 416C · New Smyrna Beach, FL 32168

$289,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,669 sqft · Condo · 93 Days on market

Built 2007 Fair condition 2-car garage $174/sqft · 32% below area Est $426k · 32% under $822/mo HOA · 36% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Cash flow +2.3/30.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Virtually Staged. Located in Venetian Bay at Tuscany Square Condominiums, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath unit offers updated kitchen and baths, tile flooring, laundry/utility room, separate storage room, and a 2-car garage. The open floor plan includes a breakfast bar overlooking the dining and living areas, with access to a large patio that has a fountain and pond view. Venetian Bay is a planned community with walking and biking paths, neighborhood ponds, golf at The Club at Venetian Bay, and some nearby Town Center conveniences. Community pool, golf, and tennis may be available for separate fees.

Key facts

• Mid rise
• Balcony
• Tuscany square

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• BALCONY
• TUSCANY SQUARE
• MID RISE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $290k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $140k (51.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $140k (51.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 2.8% in New Smyrna Beach — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#474 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Chisholm Elementary School (math 72% / reading 63%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 491 students, 47% FRL); New Smyrna Beach Middle School (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,037 students, 53% FRL); New Smyrna Beach High School (math 34% / reading 52%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 1,810 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 695 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 13% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 36% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,908 (51.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.32%
• DSCR: 0.32
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $426,400
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -28.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3321 Pintello Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,492 (-11%)	0mo	$364,000	$244	59
211 Caryota Ct	1.14mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,614 (-3%)	0mo	$379,000	$235	54
3431 Torre Blvd	0.53mi	2/2.0	1,973 (+18%)	0mo	$426,400	$216	50
3004 Borassus Dr	1.23mi	4/3.0 (+2)	2,115 (+27%)	0mo	$558,000	$264	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -40.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-106,378
• Equity at exit: $43,225

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-149,146
• Equity at exit: $25,065

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32168

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 695
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,264 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,348/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$822
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-1,037

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,576

Max offer price $139,908

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-836	-5% $-936	+0% $-1,037	+5% $-1,137	+10% $-1,237
Rent	-10% $-1,215	-5% $-1,126	+0% $-1,037	+5% $-947	+10% $-858
Rate	-1.0pp $-891	-0.5pp $-963	base $-1,037	+0.5pp $-1,112	+1.0pp $-1,188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
424 Luna Bella Ln #424 New Smyrna Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1575	$2,200	$1.40	16d	1	0.03mi
419 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1061	$2,268	$2.14	16d	36	0.07mi
434 Luna Bella Ln New Smyrna Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1033	$2,076	$2.01	15d	11	0.28mi
3036 Meleto Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1672	$3,000	$1.79	72d	1	0.56mi
524 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	2070	$2,700	$1.30	72d	1	0.57mi
426 Venetian Palms Blvd New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,300	$1.31	72d	1	0.64mi
3109 King Palm Dr New Smyrna Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,099	$1.38	32d	1	0.86mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is unfurnishedCommunity allows pets with breed restrictionsDevelopment: Tuscany Square
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported: $822.17Total annual fees reported: $9,866Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tuscany Sq Condo/N Graves; Venetian Bay association listed)Monthly condo fee: $743Annual association fee noted: $950Association amenities include fitness center, golf course, pool, clubhouse, community mailboxAssociation fee covers cable TV, internet, sewer, water, trash, pest control, management, common area taxes, maintenance (grounds and structure)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableElectricity connected
• Home design: CondominiumResidential propertyOne story unit (located on 4th floor)Faces south
• Construction: Block constructionTile/other roofSlab foundationBuilt as part of a multi-story building (4 stories total)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one-level unit on 4th floor)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features specifiedBuilding has an elevator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

HOA detail $822/mo · $9,864/yr condo

• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $289,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $289,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $289,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   pricedays on market $289,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $304,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $304,900 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $304,900 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $304,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $304,900 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $304,900 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $304,900 Active 77 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $304,900 Active 76 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $304,900 Active 75 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $304,900 Active 70 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $304,900 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $304,900 Active 68 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $304,900 Active 67 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $304,900 Active 66 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $304,900 Active 65 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $304,900 Active 64 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $304,900 Active 63 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $304,900 Active 61 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $304,900 Active 60 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $304,900 Active 59 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $304,900 Active 57 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $304,900 Active 56 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $304,900 Active 55 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $304,900 Active 54 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $304,900 Active 53 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $304,900 Active 52 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $304,900 Active 51 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $304,900 Active 50 DOM
35. 2026-06-25
    days on market $304,900 Active 48 DOM
36. 2026-06-23
    days on market $304,900 Active 46 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $304,900 Active 45 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $304,900 Active 42 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $304,900 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    pricestatusdays on market $304,900 Active 40 DOM
41. 2026-05-02
    historical
42. 2026-04-09
    listed $257,145 Active
43. 2026-04-08
    listed $257,145 Active 996-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$4,348
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,174
• − Management: −$2,174
• − HOA: −$9,864
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$17,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,202
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,236/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,345–$25,035 screening

This 4th floor condo in Tuscany Square is in fair condition with good curb appeal and minimal maintenance required. It offers a balcony with a lake view and is eligible for Freddie Mac First Look Initiative.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean and maintain landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Inspect and clean gutters — Prevents water damage and improves property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Chisholm Elementary School B+ FL #435/2,144 Nat'l #4,272/41,679 Middle New Smyrna Beach Middle School D- FL #331/571 Nat'l #5,160/14,009 High New Smyrna Beach High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — New Smyrna Beach

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #8577

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Smyrna Beach, FL
• County: Volusia County · 572,749 people
• City population: 42,039
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,847
• Household income: $77,083
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.58%
• Current HPI: 350.4259
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is unfurnishedCommunity allows pets with breed restrictionsDevelopment: Tuscany Square
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported: $822.17Total annual fees reported: $9,866Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tuscany Sq Condo/N Graves; Venetian Bay association listed)Monthly condo fee: $743Annual association fee noted: $950Association amenities include fitness center, golf course, pool, clubhouse, community mailboxAssociation fee covers cable TV, internet, sewer, water, trash, pest control, management, common area taxes, maintenance (grounds and structure)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerCable availableElectricity connected
• Home design: CondominiumResidential propertyOne story unit (located on 4th floor)Faces south
• Construction: Block constructionTile/other roofSlab foundationBuilt as part of a multi-story building (4 stories total)
• Exterior features: Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one-level unit on 4th floor)
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features specifiedBuilding has an elevator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located inside

Price history

+18.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Price Changed $304,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — Daytona MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $257,145 Daytona MLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $257,145 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid