12308 123rd Street Ct E #40 · South Hill, WA 98374

$160,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 307 Days on market

Built 1978 $90/sqft · 15% above area Est $140k · 15% over ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your warm & welcoming home-sweet-home awaits in 55+ community Countrydale Estates! Generous living areas offer flow & let you spread out. Gather & entertain in dedicated dining area w/ wall of gorgeous built-ins. Kitchen boasts smart layout w/ ample storage. Excellent flexibility awaits in each bedroom & primary suite includes ensuite bath. Covered deck offers lovely spot for relaxing out in the fresh air, rain or shine! Keep outdoor spaces simple & low-maintenance, or put your green thumb to work; there’s room for garden beds & all of your favorite plants. Meet your neighbors at the clubhouse & pool, right across the street. 5 min to Meridian

Key facts

• Covered deck
• Gorgeous built-ins
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• DEDICATED DINING AREA
• GORGEOUS BUILT-INS
• AMPLE STORAGE
• ENSUITE BATH
• COVERED DECK
• LOW-MAINTENANCE OUTDOOR SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $161k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $161k).
• Recommended offer: $142k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 3.0% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in WA, #1,620 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, cost of living F.
• Puyallup School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($142k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $141,636 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.71%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $140,210
• List price: $160,950
• Delta: 14.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12223 125th St E #101	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,729 (-3%)	1mo	$164,000	$95	86
12404 122nd Avenue Ct E #62	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	18mo	$145,000	$81	80
11611 121st Avenue Ct E	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	10mo	$460,000	$258	72
12301 125th St E #103	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-12%)	9mo	$164,000	$105	64
11208 125th St E #78	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,773 (-0%)	15mo	$99,950	$56	55
4002 19th Street Pl SE	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,761 (-1%)	22mo	$444,900	$253	49
11418 127th St E #189	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-14%)	4mo	$150,000	$97	48
12606 113th Ave E #243	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (-4%)	10mo	$80,000	$47	48
11323 122nd St E	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-4%)	18mo	$429,950	$251	44
11303 127th Street Ct E #164	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-12%)	2mo	$144,950	$93	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $50,864
• Equity at exit: $23,998

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $133,382
• Equity at exit: $13,916

Cash invested: $45,066 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98374

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,882 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$844
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,194/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$605
• Net cashflow: $1,266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,279

Max offer price $160,950

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,357	-5% $1,312	+0% $1,266	+5% $1,220	+10% $1,175
Rent	-10% $1,038	-5% $1,152	+0% $1,266	+5% $1,380	+10% $1,494
Rate	-1.0pp $1,347	-0.5pp $1,307	base $1,266	+0.5pp $1,224	+1.0pp $1,182

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,238
• Closing costs: $4,828
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12117 122nd Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1549	$2,975	$1.92	0d	1	0.13mi
12437 129th Ave E Puyallup, WA	2.0	1.5	1818	$2,400	$1.32	11d	1	0.36mi
13011 122nd Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	2176	$3,100	$1.42	44d	1	0.42mi
13214 110th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	2.5	2549	$3,200	$1.26	44d	1	0.97mi
12202 107th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	1.5	1248	$2,850	$2.28	4d	1	1.00mi
12202 107th Avenue Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	1.5	1248	$3,000	$2.40	44d	1	1.00mi
10614 123rd Street Ct E Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.5	1584	$2,500	$1.58	44d	1	1.04mi
13404 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	25d	1	1.22mi
13523 106th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1404	$2,650	$1.89	25d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $160,950 Pending 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,950 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,950 Active 304 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,950 Active 303 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,950 Active 300 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,950 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $160,950 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $160,950 Active 295 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,950 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,950 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,950 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,950 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-05-01
    price $164,950
14. 2026-04-08
    price $167,950
15. 2026-03-10
    price $169,950
16. 2026-02-12
    price $172,950
17. 2026-01-09
    price $175,950
18. 2025-11-07
    price $177,950
19. 2025-10-17
    price $179,950
20. 2025-09-26
    price $182,950
21. 2025-08-28
    price $187,950
22. 2025-08-13
    listed $192,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,194 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$383/yr (+$32/mo · 32.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,016
• − Property taxes: −$1,194
• − Insurance: −$805
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,766
• − Management: −$2,766
• − Depreciation: −$4,682
• Taxable income: $13,351
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,204
• After-tax cash flow: $11,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Puyallup School District
• NCES district ID: 5306960
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,291
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #52 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1620

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 76,707
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,007
• Household income: $112,662
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1171.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -431.48%
• Current HPI: 286.6617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-14.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $164,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $167,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $169,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $172,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $175,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $177,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $179,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-26 Price Changed $182,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Price Changed $187,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listed $192,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,194 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.