4820 Potomac Anx · St. Louis, MO 63116

$104,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1926 4,020 sqft lot $146/sqft · 38% below area Est $170k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4820 Potomac St in the heart of South St. Louis! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,440 sq ft of living space and is full of potential for both investors and owner-occupants looking to add their personal touch. The property features a solid structure and needs cosmetic update.

Key facts

• 4,020 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1926

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,753 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.14%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,958
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -38.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4351 Potomac St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	672 (-7%)	9mo	$110,000	$164	64
4470 Bingham Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	770 (+7%)	4mo	$129,900	$169	61
4967 Parker Ave	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	811 (+13%)	0mo	$165,000	$203	59
4815 Miami St	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (+10%)	17mo	$99,900	$126	59
4132 Miami St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	690 (-4%)	1mo	$189,000	$274	56
5230 Fairview Ave	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	765 (+6%)	12mo	$180,000	$235	50
4237 Wyoming St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	788 (+9%)	2mo	$195,000	$247	50
4327 Jessica Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	656 (-9%)	3mo	$100,000	$152	46
5261 Fairview Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	784 (+9%)	9mo	$190,000	$242	46
4352 Chippewa St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	804 (+12%)	16mo	$119,900	$149	41
3349 Macklind Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	808 (+12%)	2mo	$215,000	$266	40
5064 Potomac St	0.46mi	2/1.0 (-1)	805 (+12%)	18mo	$159,900	$199	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-1,647
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $17,066
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63116

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,218/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $880

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $308	-5% $278	+0% $248	+5% $218	+10% $189
Rent	-10% $154	-5% $201	+0% $248	+5% $295	+10% $343
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $275	base $248	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $193

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3534 Morgan Ford Rd Unit 3534-C St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	45d	1	0.39mi
4215 Neosho St Unit 101 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	45d	1	0.85mi
3860 Bamberger Ave Unit 3N St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$799	$1.14	19d	1	1.21mi
5927 Suson Pl St. Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	670	$1,235	$1.84	3d	12	1.27mi
5252 Bischoff Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,225	$1.63	45d	1	1.33mi
2100 Boardman St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	765	$3,118	$4.08	3d	17	1.37mi
3611 Wyoming St Unit 3E St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$1,199	$1.60	5d	1	1.41mi
3179 S Grand Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	650	$1,585	$2.44	3d	3	1.43mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $104,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $104,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $113,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $113,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $116,900 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Welcome to 4820 Potomac St in the heart of South St. Louis! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,440 sq ft of living space and is full of potential for both investors and owner-occupants looking to add their personal touch. The property features a solid structure and needs cosmetic update.

16. 2026-05-12
    price $119,900 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Welcome to 4820 Potomac St in the heart of South St. Louis! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,440 sq ft of living space and is full of potential for both investors and owner-occupants looking to add their personal touch. The property features a solid structure and needs cosmetic update.

17. 2026-05-05
    status Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Welcome to 4820 Potomac St in the heart of South St. Louis! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,440 sq ft of living space and is full of potential for both investors and owner-occupants looking to add their personal touch. The property features a solid structure and needs cosmetic update.

18. 2026-05-05
    price $129,900 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Welcome to 4820 Potomac St in the heart of South St. Louis! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,440 sq ft of living space and is full of potential for both investors and owner-occupants looking to add their personal touch. The property features a solid structure and needs cosmetic update.

19. 2026-04-30
    status Pending 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Welcome to 4820 Potomac St in the heart of South St. Louis! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,440 sq ft of living space and is full of potential for both investors and owner-occupants looking to add their personal touch. The property features a solid structure and needs cosmetic update.

20. 2026-04-21
    listed $134,900 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Welcome to 4820 Potomac St in the heart of South St. Louis! This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 1,440 sq ft of living space and is full of potential for both investors and owner-occupants looking to add their personal touch. The property features a solid structure and needs cosmetic update.

21. 2018-03-30
    soldstatus Closed 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    This property shows like a new house. Don't miss out on this Great rehab. Very clean. Engineered hardwoods and cermic tile throughout. Seller pay up to 4% iof buyers prepaids and closing cost.

22. 2018-03-19
    status Pending 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    This property shows like a new house. Don't miss out on this Great rehab. Very clean. Engineered hardwoods and cermic tile throughout. Seller pay up to 4% iof buyers prepaids and closing cost.

23. 2018-02-15
    listed $109,900 Active 196-char remark

    Show marketing remark (196 chars)

    This property shows like a new house. Don't miss out on this Great rehab. Very clean. Engineered hardwoods and cermic tile throughout. Seller pay up to 4% iof buyers prepaids and closing cost.

24. 2016-06-03
    soldstatus
25. 1990-10-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,218 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,218 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,218
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,147
• − Management: −$1,147
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $1,368
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$328
• After-tax cash flow: $2,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 42,170
• Household income: $61,433
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1923.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.19%
• Current HPI: 215.7108
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+6.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $116,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $119,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $129,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $134,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-19 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-15 Listed $109,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1990-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,218 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.