8264-8268 Matanzas Rd · San Carlos Park, FL 33967

$555,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,042 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2004 10,759 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Outstanding investment opportunity in highly desired neighborhood San Carlos Park. This duplex offers 2 bedrooms and 2 baths in each unit which also includes a private lanai and laundry space. The unit to the left side of the duplex has been freshly renovated with new kitchen cabinets, granite counter tops, bathroom vanities and beautiful plank tiles throughout. Exterior received a new coat of paint. Potential to produce $50,000 income. One side is tenant occupied, the renovated unit is ready for new tenant. Only minutes from Gulf Coast Town Center, i75, US41, RSW Airport, restaurants and in an excellent school district.

Key facts

• Fenced in for pets
• Separate laundry
• Private lanai area

Tags

• PRIVATE LANAI AREA
• FENCED IN FOR PETS
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY
• NEWLY PAINTED
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property listed as multi-unit (2 units)
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No HOA amenities

Exterior

• Utilities: Central water; Septic sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential income property; Duplex; Located in SAN CARLOS PARK development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 2004
• Exterior features: Double-hung windows; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $555k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($30/yr) — positive. Per door: $1/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $511k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $511k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in San Carlos Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#662 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heights Elementary School (math 74% / reading 67%, grade A-, #333 of 2,144 statewide, top 16%, 1,109 students, 38% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.7%/yr); 226 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,108/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($91k/yr) (locally 491% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $510,800 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
2. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-104,547
• Equity at exit: $82,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-147,879
• Equity at exit: $47,986

Cash invested: $155,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33967

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 226
• Price-to-rent: 27.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,108 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,910
• Tax from tax record: −$465 /mo · $5,575/yr
• Insurance: −$231
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,073
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,105

Max offer price $555,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $317	-5% $160	+0% $2	+5% $-155	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-401	-5% $-199	+0% $2	+5% $204	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $282	-0.5pp $144	base $2	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-288

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	2	$5,109
Total (3 units)			$5,108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,750
• Closing costs: $16,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8357 Matanzas Rd Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$3,095	$1.69	25d	1	0.17mi
8157 Albatross Rd Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1667	$3,095	$1.86	5d	1	0.25mi
8157 Albatross Rd Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$3,095	$1.82	25d	1	0.25mi
8418 Wren Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1502	$2,246	$1.50	3d	1	0.28mi
8430 Southbridge Dr #3 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1805	$4,447	$2.46	25d	1	0.29mi
18606 Cedar Dr E Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1698	$2,676	$1.58	5d	1	0.47mi
18422 Huckleberry Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,975	$1.47	25d	1	0.51mi
18521 Olive Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1798	$2,396	$1.33	5d	1	0.64mi
18477 Sunflower Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2120	$2,100	$0.99	17d	1	0.69mi
18477 Sunflower Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,100	$1.36	23d	1	0.69mi
8792 Largo Mar Dr Estero, FL	4.0	3.0	2568	$8,000	$3.12	23d	1	0.82mi
9051 Astonia Way Estero, FL	4.0	3.5	2696	$8,500	$3.15	25d	1	0.83mi
18500 Winter Haven Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,100	$1.38	23d	1	0.84mi
8847 Largo Mar Dr Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2099	$4,500	$2.14	21d	1	0.90mi
18145 Baruch Dr Fort Myers, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,531	$1.39	5d	1	0.90mi
9135 Astonia Way Estero, FL	4.0	2.5	2539	$3,000	$1.18	25d	1	0.95mi
18125 Hilda Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,056	$1.36	16d	1	0.96mi
19809 Maddelena Cir Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2348	$3,500	$1.49	25d	1	0.96mi
18205 Apple Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,646	$1.67	5d	1	0.99mi
19639 Villa Rosa Loop Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	2075	$2,600	$1.25	13d	1	1.03mi
7340 Stoney Grove CIR Fort Myers, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,595	$2.35	3d	39	1.12mi
9980 Portofino Vineyards Dr Fort Myers, FL	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	2026	$4,399	$2.17	4d	56	1.18mi
7286 Jonas Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,556	$1.79	17d	1	1.19mi
19721 Tesoro Way Estero, FL	4.0	4.5	2839	$3,950	$1.39	25d	1	1.27mi
18015 Horseshoe Bay Cir Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1623	$3,350	$2.06	25d	1	1.28mi
9151 Kings Cove Ct Fort Myers, FL	4.0	3.0	2710	$3,000	$1.11	25d	1	1.28mi
19738 Tesoro Way Unit 1545812P Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$3,871	$2.59	17d	1	1.31mi
17700 Middle Oak Ct Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1943	$2,800	$1.44	25d	1	1.33mi
3702 Pino Vista Way #3 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1610	$2,300	$1.43	5d	1	1.36mi
17412 Oriole Rd Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,025	$1.37	15d	1	1.38mi
3783 Pino Vista Way #201 Estero, FL	3.0	2.0	1523	$3,300	$2.17	25d	1	1.42mi
18911 Bay Woods Lake Dr #201 Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	2348	$3,000	$1.28	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $555,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $555,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $555,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $555,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $555,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $555,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $555,000 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $555,000 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 623-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $555,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,575 · $465/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,575 · $465/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,089
• − Property taxes: −$5,575
• − Insurance: −$7,894
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,904
• − Management: −$4,904
• − Depreciation: −$16,145
• Taxable loss: −$9,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,211
• After-tax cash flow: $2,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — San Carlos Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #13354

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Carlos Park, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 27,337
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,341
• Household income: $90,519
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 491.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -123.07%
• Current HPI: 296.5923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.68%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+670.8% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $555,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-29 Sold (MLS) $520,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-08-08 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-07-08 Price Changed $540,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-06-09 Price Changed $565,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-05-05 Listed $575,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $365,000 Public Records
• 2022-11-30 Sold (MLS) $365,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-11-01 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-09-09 Price Changed $417,500 FORTMLS
• 2022-05-20 Price Changed $439,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-05-20 Price Changed $469,000 FORTMLS
• 2022-05-19 Listed $439,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-02 Sold (MLS) $12,000 FORTMLS
• 2001-02-19 Price Changed $12,500 FORTMLS
• 1993-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,575 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.