222 Half Hollow Rd · Deer Park, NY 11729

$698,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,775 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1963 0.32 ac lot Est $746k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A Charming Farmhouse Cape Welcome to 222 Half Hallow Road, Deer Park, this picture-perfect cedar shake home set on a beautifully manicured, oversized lot. This warm and inviting home has been lovingly cared for and offers several recent thoughtful updates—truly move-in ready for its next owner to enjoy and make lasting memories. A cozy covered front porch greets you before entering into a bright, open floor plan filled with natural light. The living room features a large picture window and opens to the dining room, which offers charming built-in cabinetry—perfect for family gatherings. The updated white kitchen is the heart of the home, complete with a breakfast peninsula, new

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $493k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $451k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $451k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.0% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#216 in NY, #3,358 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Park Union Free School District (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #181 of 590 in NY (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: May Moore Primary School (466 students, 40% FRL); Robert Frost Middle School (math 30% / reading 60%, grade D, #342 of 729 statewide, top 48%, 903 students, 49% FRL); Deer Park High School (math 95% / reading 57%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 1,314 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 28% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($689k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $451,224 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.14%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $745,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 W 2nd St	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,737 (-2%)	3mo	$700,000	$403	88
197 W 5th St	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-1%)	4mo	$740,000	$420	75
192 E 5th St	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,758 (-1%)	1mo	$750,000	$427	65
197 E 2nd St	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,686 (-5%)	4mo	$675,000	$400	63
27 Taca Blvd	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,641 (-8%)	3mo	$685,000	$417	60
2 Smith St	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,880 (+6%)	2mo	$793,000	$422	59
689 Nicolls Rd	0.59mi	4/3.0	1,714 (-3%)	10mo	$713,000	$416	55
20 E 8th St	0.58mi	4/1.5	1,610 (-9%)	5mo	$729,000	$453	51
147 W 11th St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,604 (-10%)	6mo	$600,000	$374	49
19 Madison Ave	0.70mi	4/3.5	2,000 (+13%)	6mo	$890,000	$445	35
74 W 17th St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-14%)	8mo	$646,000	$423	34
9 Westwood Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,528 (-14%)	11mo	$620,000	$406	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-187,386
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-258,597
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11729

• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$772 /mo · $9,259/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$948
• Net cashflow: $-1,164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,985

Max offer price $493,408

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-768	-5% $-966	+0% $-1,164	+5% $-1,362	+10% $-1,559
Rent	-10% $-1,520	-5% $-1,342	+0% $-1,164	+5% $-986	+10% $-807
Rate	-1.0pp $-812	-0.5pp $-986	base $-1,164	+0.5pp $-1,345	+1.0pp $-1,529

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
63 Franklin Ave Deer Park, NY	3.0	1.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	44d	1	0.93mi
495 Dewitt Ave North Babylon, NY	3.0	2.0	1911	$4,500	$2.35	2d	1	1.27mi
290 Eastwood Ave Deer Park, NY	4.0	2.5	2400	$7,000	$2.92	44d	1	1.28mi
23 Seaman Neck Rd Dix Hills, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$3,800	$2.71	0d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   status Active
3. 2025-11-17
   listed $698,999 Active
4. 2025-11-16
   historical $698,999

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,259 · $772/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,536 · $878/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,277/yr (+$106/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $54,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$9,259
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,332
• − Management: −$4,332
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$26,760
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,422
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608880
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $80,561
• Composite: 55.26/100
• National rank: #1268
• State rank: #181 of 590 in NY

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #3358

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, NY
• City population: 26,647
• Population (ZIP): 26,647

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 13% Black 12% Asian 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 3% Armenian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 7% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -669.80%
• Current HPI: 285.3175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-17 Listed $698,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Coming Soon $698,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,259 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.