172 Lake Gln · San Marcos, TX 78666

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2016 5,227 sqft lot $169/sqft · 15% below area Est $270k · 15% under $22/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home in the heart of San Marcos, TX that qualifies for a ZERO down loan! This property backs up to the Cottonwood Creek Natural area giving you direct walking trail access and park views forever. Step inside to discover an inviting open and airy floorplan that seamlessly connects spacious living areas, creating an ideal environment for both entertaining and everyday life. Additional bedrooms provide versatility for guests, a home office, or a growing family. Step outside to discover your own private oasis. The backyard is perfect for outdoor activities, from summer barbecues to quiet evenings under the stars. Your children can walk to the neighborhood elementary school

Key facts

• Close to texas state
• Park views
• Private oasis

Tags

• WALKING TRAIL ACCESS
• PARK VIEWS
• PRIVATE OASIS
• NEIGHBORHOOD ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
• CLOSE TO TEXAS STATE
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN SAN MARCOS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Cottonwood Creek HOA); HOA fee $130 semi-annually; Community trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Detached or attached 2 covered parking spaces (2 total parking spaces) - see remarks for details
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer (sewer connected); Cable available; High-speed internet available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces northwest; Resale property; Has a view
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Year built per public records
• Exterior features: Private yard; Porch; Back yard fencing; Backs to greenbelt/park; Sloped-down lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms (main level primary)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry features - see remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $38k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,119 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,735
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -15.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
188 Lake Gln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+7%)	6mo	$250,000	$173	82
228 Skipping Stone Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,309 (-4%)	3mo	$235,000	$180	79
209 Wisteria Way	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (+3%)	1mo	$249,900	$179	74
225 Dylan Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,423 (+5%)	7mo	$219,500	$154	72
140 Parrigin Cv	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+5%)	6mo	$247,411	$174	65
1516 Morris Loop	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+5%)	6mo	$246,966	$174	64
105 Firstview Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+5%)	7mo	$250,526	$176	61
137 Cutleaf Cv	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+2%)	3mo	$249,990	$180	61
118 Cutleaf Cv	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+2%)	4mo	$259,990	$187	61
1132 Wild Leaf Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+2%)	7mo	$264,990	$191	57
112 Eleanor Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-10%)	4mo	$249,278	$205	55
113 Cutleaf Cv	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+13%)	3mo	$258,990	$169	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-56,839
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-79,669
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,839 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$417 /mo · $5,005/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$22
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,197

Max offer price $179,119

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-153	-5% $-218	+0% $-282	+5% $-347	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-355	+0% $-282	+5% $-210	+10% $-137
Rate	-1.0pp $-167	-0.5pp $-224	base $-282	+0.5pp $-342	+1.0pp $-402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
186 Tallow Trl San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,888	$1.29	18d	1	0.07mi
190 Tallow Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1647	$1,900	$1.15	18d	1	0.08mi
224 Lake Gln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$1,825	$1.19	19d	1	0.10mi
131 Lake Gln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1839	$1,849	$1.01	44d	1	0.11mi
133 Whipporwill Ln San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.5	1831	$2,100	$1.15	2d	1	0.14mi
117 Linden Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	24d	1	0.17mi
153 Roanwood Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,825	$1.19	3d	1	0.18mi
133 Lily Pond Trl San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$1,795	$1.03	2d	1	0.19mi
213 Hoya Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	24d	1	0.20mi
128 Shimmering Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1544	$1,890	$1.22	44d	1	0.24mi
101 Calgary Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1509	$1,750	$1.16	22d	1	0.27mi
140 Skipping Stone Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1562	$1,945	$1.25	15d	1	0.27mi
326 Wild Plum San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1723	$1,850	$1.07	44d	1	0.36mi
124 Brody Ln San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$1,960	$1.13	5d	1	0.39mi
116 Miles Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,799	$1.06	2d	1	0.43mi
116 Miles Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,799	$1.06	4d	1	0.43mi
261 Elk Ave San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,925	$1.14	8d	1	0.44mi
4530 Texas 123 San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1004	$1,810	$1.80	2d	60	0.53mi
1212 Wild Leaf Way San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,875	$1.35	24d	1	0.70mi
125 Cutleaf Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,100	$1.37	5d	1	0.70mi
133 Cutleaf Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,100	$1.37	2d	1	0.72mi
133 Cutleaf Cv San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$2,100	$1.37	5d	1	0.72mi
1009 Wild Leaf Way #29 San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1614	$1,850	$1.15	5d	1	0.76mi
417 Capistrano Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,850	$1.37	18d	1	0.98mi
409 Teron Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,775	$1.29	18d	1	0.98mi
3085 N State Highway 123 San Marcos, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	948	$1,352	$1.43	2d	15	0.99mi
1041 Vervain Rd San Marcos, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	943	$1,450	$1.54	2d	13	1.01mi
101 Salas Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,700	$1.50	13d	1	1.11mi
210 Teron Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,709	$1.15	3d	1	1.17mi
224 Capistrano Dr San Marcos, TX	4.0	2.0	1495	$2,150	$1.44	44d	1	1.20mi
136 Discovery Ln San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,625	$1.02	24d	1	1.21mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $22 · $264/yr

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $267,000 Active 814-char remark
15. 2024-06-25
    historical $1,700
16. 2024-06-25
    historical
17. 2024-06-11
    price
18. 2024-06-11
    price $259,000
19. 2024-06-06
    price $1,700
20. 2024-06-05
    price $269,000
21. 2024-06-05
    price
22. 2024-05-18
    price $1,750
23. 2024-05-13
    price
24. 2024-05-13
    price $279,000
25. 2024-05-10
    listed $1,800
26. 2024-05-06
    price
27. 2024-05-06
    price $289,000
28. 2024-04-18
    price
29. 2024-04-18
    price $294,900
30. 2024-03-27
    price $299,000
31. 2024-03-27
    price
32. 2024-02-27
    price $309,000
33. 2024-02-27
    price
34. 2024-02-21
    listed Active
35. 2024-02-16
    listed $319,000 Active
36. 2020-08-06
    soldstatus
37. 2020-08-05
    soldstatus Sold
38. 2020-06-28
    status Pending - Taking Backups
39. 2020-06-03
    listed $199,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,005 · $417/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,005 · $417/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,071
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$5,005
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,766
• − Management: −$1,766
• − HOA: −$264
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$7,363
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,767
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,621/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+14.8% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $229,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $239,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $267,000 Unlock MLS
• 2024-06-25 Rental Removed $1,700 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-25 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $259,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-06 Price Changed $1,700 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-05 Price Changed $269,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-05 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-18 Price Changed $1,750 CTXMLS
• 2024-05-13 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-13 Price Changed $279,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-05-10 Listed for Rent $1,800 CTXMLS
• 2024-05-06 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-05-06 Price Changed $289,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-18 Price Changed $294,900 CTXMLS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed $299,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-03-27 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed $309,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-02-27 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-02-21 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2024-02-16 Listed $319,000 CTXMLS
• 2020-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-05 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2020-06-28 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2020-06-03 Listed $199,500 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,005 · -11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.