974 Sundance Retreat Ln · New Market, VA 22844

$210,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1982 3.00 ac lot Est $245k · 14% under $83/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your Shenandoah Valley getaway awaits! Nestled on 3 wooded acres and backing directly to the George Washington National Forest, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom cabin offers the perfect blend of privacy, nature, and convenience—just 3 miles from historic downtown New Market. Inside, you’ll find a cozy and comfortable layout with efficient mini-split heating and cooling, plus a woodstove to keep things extra warm on chilly mountain evenings. Whether you are sipping coffee on a quiet morning, enjoying the peaceful wooded setting, or heading out to explore nearby trails, this property offers the mountain retreat lifestyle buyers are looking for. Outside, a handy shed provides extra space for outdoor gear, tools, firewood, or weekend adventure supplies. The septic system has already been inspected and is ready for the new owners, offering added peace of mind. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful weekend retreat, a full-time escape, or an investment opportunity, this cabin is your chance to own a slice of mountain living in the Shenandoah Valley.

Key facts

• 3 wooded acres
• Handy shed
• Woodstove

Tags

• 3 WOODED ACRES
• WOODSTOVE
• HANDY SHED
• SEPTIC SYSTEM INSPECTED

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Improvement assessed value $63,800; Land assessed value $38,000; Tax assessed value $101,900; County tax $652 (2025)
• HOA & community: HOA fee $500 paid semi-annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Community water; On-site septic; Electric power
• Home design: Detached structure; Finished above-grade area 640 (source: assessor); Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Frame construction; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Above-grade and below-grade other structures
• Exterior features: Adjoins game land; Trees / wooded

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Wall unit heating; Wood burning stove; Ductless / mini-split cooling; Electric heating fuel; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.5% in New Market — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#372 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $210k implies a 171% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,206 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.26%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,120
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
266 Rocky Mountain Ln	0.26mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	13mo	$95,000	$148	77
447 Blackberry Ln	0.63mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	4mo	$245,000	$383	68
110 Mountain Top Ln	0.44mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	23mo	$245,000	$383	61
233 Sundance Retreat Ln	0.56mi	2/1.0	640 (0%)	23mo	$240,000	$375	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.78% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $94,780
• Equity at exit: $185,879

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.95×
• Total profit: $291,107
• Equity at exit: $397,387

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22844

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,352 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $652/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,679

Max offer price $164,436

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-198	+0% $-258	+5% $-317	+10% $-377
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-311	+0% $-258	+5% $-205	+10% $-151
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-205	base $-258	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-368

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $83 · $996/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $652 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,722 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,070/yr (+$89/mo · 164.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$652
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,298
• − Management: −$1,298
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$6,941
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,666
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,429/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shenandoah County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103510
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,207
• Composite: 44.42/100
• National rank: #2811
• State rank: #91 of 131 in VA

Livability — New Market

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #15038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment D Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,674

Population outlook (Shenandoah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,891 people
• By 2030: 45,630 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 46,708 · +4.0%
• By 2050: 47,072 · +4.9%
• By 2075: 47,418 · +5.6%
• By 2100: 43,707 · -2.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shenandoah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.2) · D 28.4% · R 70.6% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.5pp · 2024: -42.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.2 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+43.3 2012: R+31.4 2008: R+26.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.78%
• Current HPI: 328.5512
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+171.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $210,000 HRAR
• 2026-05-29 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-17 Pending — HRAR
• 2025-11-17 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $205,000 HRAR
• 2025-09-26 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed $210,000 HRAR
• 2019-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $652 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.