37414 Northside Dr · Pasadena Hills, FL 33541

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1974 0.92 ac lot Est $187k · 31% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover incredible potential on this spacious 0.92-acre property in Zephyrhills, Florida! Tucked away on a private end road, this unique opportunity offers space, privacy, and versatility—all while being conveniently close to major growth areas and city amenities. The main residence is a 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home featuring an open-concept layout with a designated laundry area. The kitchen expansion is currently underway, with plumbing and square footage improvements in progress (permits in process), giving buyers the opportunity to customize and add value. Enjoy outdoor living with a rear porch, plus a carport upon entry and a nearby storage shed. This property stands out wit

Key facts

• Private end road
• 0.92 acre property
• Carport

Tags

• 0.92 ACRE PROPERTY
• PRIVATE END ROAD
• KITCHEN EXPANSION UNDERWAY
• REAR PORCH
• CARPORT
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size about 0.92 acres (0.5 to less than 1 acre); Zoning: AR
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Has carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Well water; Sewer: other; Other utilities
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces southwest; Fixer condition; Accessibility: customized wheelchair accessible
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Building area approximately 2204 total / 1824 living
• Exterior features: Storage; Wire fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Other heating
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Refrigerator included
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $60 ($721/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.6% in Pasadena Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#723 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Zephyrhills Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 615 students, 81% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 48% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $245k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,030 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $186,816
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37510 New Horizons Blvd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	2mo	$215,000	$144	75
37652 New Horizons Blvd	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,396 (+4%)	3mo	$240,000	$172	74
37635 Gill Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,407 (+5%)	3mo	$217,000	$154	70
37501 Campo Ave	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	70
37630 Landis Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	4mo	$189,000	$125	66
37551 Lilly Bea Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	5mo	$225,000	$149	65
37539 Gill Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	6mo	$219,000	$145	63
37544 Corey Lewis Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	7mo	$210,000	$139	61
37526 Rio Ln	0.44mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,448 (+8%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	59
7109 EL Matador St	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,332 (-1%)	9mo	$128,000	$96	58
7131 EL Dewitt St	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$150,000	$104	50
7149 Naranja St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,539 (+14%)	7mo	$210,000	$136	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,814
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-54,449
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,599/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $129	+0% $60	+5% $-9	+10% $-79
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $-19	+0% $60	+5% $139	+10% $218
Rate	-1.0pp $183	-0.5pp $122	base $60	+0.5pp $-3	+1.0pp $-68

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$2,315	$2.15	0d	33	0.65mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	6d	1	0.72mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	25d	1	1.02mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	25d	1	1.03mi
7064 Ripple Pond Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,047	$1.15	16d	1	1.07mi
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	25d	1	1.15mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	21d	1	1.25mi
6262 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,700	$1.25	25d	1	1.30mi
6302 Abbott Station Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0–2.5	855	$1,999	$2.34	3d	142	1.32mi
6249 Maisai Rd #6 Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1561	$1,550	$0.99	3d	1	1.32mi
6246 Timberly Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,900	$1.39	25d	1	1.33mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	25d	1	1.33mi
37661 Aaralyn Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,800	$1.32	25d	1	1.34mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	25d	1	1.34mi
37732 Cecil Ln Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,800	$1.73	25d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $245,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $247,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $247,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $247,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $247,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    price $247,000
15. 2026-03-19
    listed $250,000 Active
16. 2024-06-03
    soldstatus $95,000
17. 2014-11-04
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,034 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$434/yr (+$36/mo · 27.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,599
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,513
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$843
• After-tax cash flow: $1,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pasadena Hills

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #723
• US rank: #15499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena Hills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+394.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $247,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2014-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,599 · -27.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.