1241 Little Flock Dr · Fort Worth, TX 76036

$268,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,630 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 $165/sqft · 28% below area Est $373k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Cottage 55' Collection is a series of new single-family homes at the Deer Creek masterplan in peaceful Crowley, TX. Homeowners have access to a range of masterplan amenities, including a swimming pool, community center and onsite park. Deer Creek offers access to highly desirable local schools, while proximity to I-35 makes commutes and travel simple. Residents are just minutes from shopping, dining and entertainment in downtown Fort Worth, with popular destinations including Sundance Square.

Key facts

• I-35 access
• Community center
• Swimming pool

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• ONSITE PARK
• LOCAL SCHOOLS
• I-35 ACCESS
• SHOPPING DINING ENTERTAINMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-9 ($-103/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $268k (0.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F.
• Crowley ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #643 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 1018 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($265k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,226 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $372,836
• List price: $268,999
• Delta: -27.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1044 Pineview Ln	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,812 (+11%)	2mo	$339,966	$188	64
1017 Stonehaven Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,813 (+11%)	2mo	$344,558	$190	62
1201 Oryx Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+2%)	1mo	$277,999	$167	61
10008 Bawean Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+2%)	2mo	$260,999	$157	60
1008 Windsong Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,812 (+11%)	8mo	$339,888	$188	58
1240 Calamian Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,667 (+2%)	6mo	$263,999	$158	57
1324 Alderwood Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,684 (+3%)	8mo	$289,900	$172	57
1233 Calamian Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+5%)	2mo	$287,999	$169	56
1141 Turtle Hill Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,840 (+13%)	8mo	$392,990	$214	54
1341 Fox Glen Trl	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (+0%)	8mo	$310,400	$190	53
1009 Stonehaven Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+15%)	1mo	$329,999	$177	52
1016 Windsong Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,868 (+15%)	6mo	$359,999	$193	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-45,787
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-47,247
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76036

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 1018
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$336 /mo · $4,035/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,353

Max offer price $267,754

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $84	+0% $-9	+5% $-102	+10% $-195
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-101	+0% $-9	+5% $84	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $60	base $-9	+0.5pp $-78	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1312 Hunters Ridge Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	3.0	2155	$2,700	$1.25	11d	1	0.60mi
720 Watson Way Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1782	$2,095	$1.18	44d	1	0.94mi
2604 Mill Springs Pass Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.0	1822	$2,340	$1.28	44d	1	1.01mi
744 Walls Blvd Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1792	$2,300	$1.28	44d	1	1.02mi
752 Rutherford Dr Crowley, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,209	$1.19	44d	1	1.07mi
705 Loftin St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1514	$2,200	$1.45	44d	1	1.08mi
708 Cheryl St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,100	$1.27	19d	1	1.08mi
625 Hutchins Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,885	$1.39	44d	1	1.09mi
605 Hidden Dale Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1161	$1,875	$1.61	44d	1	1.14mi
552 Kerry St Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,295	$1.40	2d	1	1.17mi
8457 Asheville Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,049	$1.14	44d	1	1.20mi
8440 Asheville Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	2048	$2,250	$1.10	13d	1	1.23mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,149	$1.26	44d	1	1.26mi
9157 Abaco Way Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1705	$2,089	$1.23	25d	1	1.26mi
8832 Elk Creek Ln Fort Worth, TX	5.0	2.0	2105	$3,200	$1.52	1d	1	1.30mi
8612 Orleans Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1790	$1,900	$1.06	44d	1	1.31mi
2808 Adams Fall Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1545	$2,100	$1.36	44d	1	1.32mi
10009 Quail Glen Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,795	$1.59	44d	1	1.33mi
2605 Bear Oak Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,950	$1.46	5d	1	1.38mi
8361 Horned Maple Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$2,200	$1.44	44d	1	1.38mi
220 Elk Run Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1781	$1,965	$1.10	15d	1	1.38mi
8564 Charleston Ave Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1463	$1,875	$1.28	25d	1	1.39mi
9100 Cranwell Ct Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1748	$1,950	$1.12	25d	1	1.40mi
2913 Vicksburg Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1720	$1,800	$1.05	25d	1	1.41mi
3104 Stonewall Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1112	$1,783	$1.60	13d	1	1.43mi
8336 Yaupon Holly Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	1751	$2,180	$1.25	25d	1	1.45mi
3408 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,195	$1.57	44d	1	1.46mi
1804 Lincolnshire Way Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,850	$1.24	5d	1	1.46mi
3124 Stonewall Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,875	$1.36	5d	1	1.46mi
824 E Prairie View Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,795	$1.60	44d	1	1.46mi
433 Heritage Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$1,970	$1.10	11d	1	1.46mi
8320 Hackberry Tree Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,970	$1.47	44d	1	1.46mi
708 E Prairie View Rd Crowley, TX	3.0	1.5	1080	$1,750	$1.62	13d	1	1.47mi
10905 Fawn Valley Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1796	$1,885	$1.05	5d	1	1.47mi
10600 Bilsky Bay Dr Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,765	$1.93	25d	24	1.47mi
3400 Quiet Valley Rd Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1904	$2,100	$1.10	44d	1	1.47mi
416 Heritage Dr Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	2250	$2,250	$1.00	3d	1	1.47mi
3416 Saint Vincent Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	3.0	2033	$1,895	$0.93	44d	1	1.47mi
816 Oriel Cir Crowley, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,400	$1.56	1d	1	1.48mi
501 McCurdy St Crowley, TX	5.0	2.0	1798	$2,850	$1.59	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-10
   price $268,999 501-char remark
2. 2026-05-09
   listed $296,999 Active 501-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$4,035
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$4,664
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,119
• After-tax cash flow: $1,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crowley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815910
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,810
• Composite: 25.04/100
• National rank: #7549
• State rank: #643 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,044
• Household income: $97,973
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 584.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.45%
• Current HPI: 238.6365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.28%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B